erol wrote: ↑Tue 21 Apr 2020 10:50 am
ONS numbers for total deaths in England and Wales for week 15 up to 10th Aprl 2020 are just in
18,516
Had a look at the ONS figures on total death in England and Wales that Erol puts links up to, and when you make comparisons on previous years they make interesting reading.
Up to week 16 ending 17th April we have had a total of 207,311 deaths this year compared with the same period in 2019s 175,460. A rise of 31,851 of which 19,093 are said to include coronavirus.
So some may say that 19,093 figure should be 31,851.
But you can always get fluctuations year to year. If you look at 2018s figures the difference between 2020 and 2018 is 8,368.
A rise of 31,851 is substantial but then so was the 28,389 rise from 2014 to 2015.
It should be noted that of that 31,851 half are 85 and over. In fact up to the age of 44 the figures from 2018 to 2020 differ by just 66.
If you look at the weekly changes this year, the biggest changes were from week 13 to week 14 which was 5,246 and week 15 to 16 which was 3,835. Now the 5,246 was admittedly the highest rise over the last ten years and the 3,835 rise was substantial but weeks 1 to 2 in 2015 had a rise of 3,951.
So the figures tell me it is a fairly serious situation but not as catastrophic as many would have it.
EG Maybe a strongly worded letter to another country might have been a better solution rather than all out invasion?
What the figures are telling me is the total deaths could be 31,851 or 19,000 or they could be 8,000 or less after 16 weeks.
But every death is tragic and every life has a value but we need to make logical comparisons.
If I was 90 and riddled with a disease and some Swiss cure came along that could extend my life by a year but would need my children to sell up everything they had to help me pay for it I would tell them to fetch a pillow tbh even though life is precious and I want as much of it as I can get. Would that make me selfish, unselfish or just realistic?
An often repeated claim is 120,000 deaths have occurred due to 10 years of Tory austerity. Which is 12,000 a year or 230 a week or 3700 over 16 weeks.
If we say the economic fallout is going to be twice as bad then doubling those totals wouldn’t be an overreaction.
Also within the deaths we have had, who is to say it hasn’t been boosted by people not seeking medical help soon enough under the lock
down? How many of us would be willing to trouble the hospitals with some ‘minor’ chest pains or indeed go into a zone which certainly has coronavirus floating around? Most are frightened to go to the supermarket how many would avoid waiting in a hospital just because they are getting a few early warning signs?
We are told only 'minor' operations have been put on hold. Define minor? If it is THAT minor why are we doing it in the first place? How many of these minor operations are preventative and delaying them is reducing life spans?
So who is to say that over reacting to this crisis isn’t more irresponsible than treating it as a particularly bad flu outbreak and reacting accordingly?
