Virus a new question.

[waz-24-7]

waz
the virus will not "mutate" soon. no need to, it spreads nicely.
and that will happen.... it will "spread and diffuse" deeply into the society, as country sides and so on ( that might happen in sweden soon) , especially when exit plans will come into operation too early.
hot spots no longer will exist, the virus is everywhere.
the UK has to overcome the (flattened) first wave... but then the danger of the second wave is present and if any mistakes are done, eg in favour of the economy, only a complete shut down can be the answer, as epidemiologist say (and the mathematic models show). spain like, italy like, maybe worse.
in germany they just have this discussion as well. Reproduction number must be smaller as 1, better lower around 0,5 and new infections should be max, say, 300 hundred a day. meaning, not to introduce too quickly easing measures, masks, distance, hygiene, an app to track cases and many many more testings. just germany alone would need 2 million tests a week. thats 2,5 % of the population every week.
(for NC: all testings done till today should be done / available to be done in a week, GC: 2 weeks)
all reliable virologists, epidemiologists and mathematics involved (eg, systemvirologists, system immunologists) say the same. whether this will be applied by the politics, is another issue.

covid cyprus 26.april.jpg

I beg to differ somewhat.
Evolution of the COVID is inevitable. Viruses are particularly good at it. The FLU virus evolves almost annually and the vaccine industry makes may millions of dollars tracking the evolution and produces new vaccines to match.
Once a vaccine has been produced for this COVID. I expect the virus to mutate within time to endeavour to return to its currently enjoyed success.

Currently the Virus is indeed everywhere. However isolation measures are reducing the transmission and consequently its success. If transmission can be kept low enough ( keeping the R value below 1) then it can be controlled within reason and the NHS (in UK) can cope with the infection.

My view is that new and technological weapons such as electronic track and trace measures will evolve to assist in the control and management of the disease at least in the world economies that have the infrastructure, technology and wealth. Its those that don't that present major risk of onward contagion.

[Keithcaley]

I tend to agree with KC also.

For goodness sake let’s stop this now

Stop what? - Agreeing with me, or the interminable pointless wrangling over theories?

[Groucho]

I tend to agree with KC also.

For goodness sake let’s stop this now

Stop what? - Agreeing with me, or the interminable pointless wrangling over theories?

Where's The Sunshine Band?

[frontalman]

OK I won't agree with him again. Simple.

[frontalman]

How did Saturday 28th April 2020 get in there????????

There is no sanity clause.

[kibsolar1999]

here is an answer to finchys youtube video. 13 min only, not 1:10 hr. thats good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zpczagv3oTg

So to be clear, easing the lock down to try and repair the economy would be a political decision?
yes.

Going all in on the lock down with some little sketchy data

latest from middle/end of february onwards, the data where not "sketchy" any more:
7th february: R >3 .
dead rate 0,3 to 1%
15-20 % need hospitalisation
5% need ventilators.
long treatment > 5 days needed on ventilators = causing severe mid and long term probs (does apply for all patients on ventilators, as accident victims and so on).

because of media pressure
good, thats why we have them... thats why we pay them.
wasn't a political decision then, it was a scientific decision?
no.

[finchy]

Kibsolar

He has an undergraduate degree in mathematics and a PHD in Biology, he teaches statistics at a university and he has published papers in journals, he also has a mate down in Catalkoy who asked him for his take on this video.....Did he mention who he actually is? If he did then I must have missed it.

Many doctors all over the world are saying exactly the same as what Erikson said in the video.

It's his take (the invisible man) and if he is a mathematician then I'm sure he knows lots about statistics and the statisticians.
Even before the 2 min mark he says that coronavirus is killing 1 in 5 of people that are dying right now. How can that me right, ah no, what he meant to say was that 1 in 5 of people diagnosed with CV-19 are dying right now. But is that correct?

The problem also here is that if someone is in hospital and say they have been in long term with a really bad illness, they contract Covid-19 or the symptoms of Covid-19 at the time of death, then the death will be listed as Covid-19 regardless and it can't be questioned, that is what they are being told to do worldwide. Talk about getting the numbers up to try and justify the ICL model.

[erol]

Many doctors all over the world are saying exactly the same as what Erikson said in the video.

They are. And many are saying something different. So where does that leave us ?

Oh and weekly England and Wales stats for total weekly deaths for week 17 up till 17 april just in

22,351 vs 5 year average 10,497 and previous 3 week figures of 18,516,16,387 and 11,141

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales

[finchy]

Erol

What do you think about the numbers being increased to have the death registered as Covid19 even if you were previously in hospital with another really bad illness?

[kibsolar1999]

finchy,
i posted that not because i agree 100% with mister I(nvisible). i did because many and every day more of us have sort "high school like" or better education and are able to find things on the internet, eg a 11k (now 15) youtube video and do not rely to "send by a friend of a friend" PR actions to find an opinion..

main question to you: is mr I correct that dr E made (in parts) wrong assumptions? and therefore comes to wrong conclusions?
it seems you do not care. otherwise you would have found the 11k video of mr I.
i mean thats the first thing to do, or? google dr E.

yes, people without covid 19 must be convinced to go to the hospitals again. in germany they reported that when they come it is "later as it would be good".
yes, fear, and?
also, these "died with or from covid 19 wrong counting" numbers are irrelevant. completely irrelevant.
it is a "luxury problem" especially in our developed countries.

if no lockdown/quarantine/curfew /whatever would have been introduced, we would have millions of cases in every EU country already (or very soon) and fear or not, hospitals would be completely stacked, basically a situation like in Bergamo for the next month to go..
Brasil seem to be the next hotspot.

as i said earlier. to belittle this virus (eg with wrong information) is irresponsible.

[erol]

Erol

What do you think about the numbers being increased to have the death registered as Covid19 even if you were previously in hospital with another really bad illness?

Finchy if you have read and understood anything I have previously written about the ONS numbers then you would already know that

When trying to personally think for myself and get an understanding in a sea of conflicting numbers and claims and counter claims. I start with just the numbers for total deaths and only that. Because there is no argument about if someone is dead or not. Because anything relating to cause of death is subjective and specialised - long before covid-19 came around. Because the people and process by which these numbers are collected and reported and updated have been in place long long before covid-19 came around. They are the 'simplest' numbers for non specialists like me. They are the 'hardest' numbers in terms of to what degree they match actual reality. They are understandable imo vs so many that are not to the same degree.

So if you want me to share my views on THESE numbers then ask and I will if and when I have time respond.

If what you want to do is discuss how unsure all the other numbers are, with slants to those theories you have already decided are the 'right ones' then I have little interest.

[waz-24-7]

I believe the UK government is taking the right line regarding issuing details on potential release of some lock down measures.
To talk this type of talk removes the urgency to isolate the infection trail and a second attack may well emerge as people take a less stringent approach. After all .. we are winning the battle....No its a war!!
The disease still remains a somewhat unknown upon its ability to attack in a second wave.
Knowledge of transmission paths and success of is gathering pace globally though the exchange and flow of data remains disappointing.

Today we learn that Germany that has released some lock down now reports a resurgence with R value hitting the critical 1 mark. ( 1 infected person will infect 1 other...the disease returns therefore to an exponential curve.)

It is my opinion that track and trace with isolation, followed by vaccine and treatment with life prolonging medicine will be the correct strategy