Have you watched the Brexit Movie ?

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Sun 22 May 2016 7:36 pm

So just to clarify will property prices drop on Brexit or not ?

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Sun 22 May 2016 7:51 pm

turtle wrote:So just to clarify will property prices drop on Brexit or not ?

Without scaremongering.
The economy will almost certainly decline, possible recession. Given the influencing factors as described on house prices. Decline is very likely.
Areas hit worst are likely to be those where the economy and jobs are hit hardest. I suspect that London and South East will only be marginally effected. The recession of 2008 caused a near collapse so another recession could cause same or similar drops.
If we look at Russia currently. As a result of their annexation exercises. The Russian economy and the Rubel has seen a monumental decline.
Swift, sharp and shocking to the whole of the country. It is only a committed level of support that has kept Putin in Power.
The World economic map is truly complex and it is frightening how quickly it responds and changes with each and every significant event.
The UK referendum is certainly a very significant event that is being monitored worldwide. Absolutely be sure the market will respond within hours, no minutes, of the result.

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Sun 22 May 2016 8:08 pm

waz-24-7 wrote: Grouch,
No doom and gloom here.

Wassock.

So why did you say if we vote out we are doomed?

Quote "if you are voting OUT because of this and without any solution, then we are indeed doomed."

PS if you keep misspelling my forum name then I will continue to return the compliment... up to you...

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Sun 22 May 2016 8:25 pm

Apologies on the spelling Groucho.
Pedantic I think?

I used the word doomed in the context in which it was used. Certain people's reasoning or lack there of for an OUT leaves me very worried indeed about individuals who, in my view, show little grasp of the reality or consequences. Hence, in context, doomed.

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Sun 22 May 2016 8:36 pm

waz-24-7 wrote:Apologies on the spelling Groucho.
Pedantic I think?

I used the word doomed in the context in which it was used. Certain people's reasoning or lack there of for an OUT leaves me very worried indeed about individuals who, in my view, show little grasp of the reality or consequences. Hence, in context, doomed.

Well it wasn't the first time Warren...

I don't think they believe you have a grasp of the realities either

mickhm · Post by **mickhm** » Sun 22 May 2016 9:16 pm

Everyone has an opinion its either right or wrong according to the stand point. I for one would much rather take my chances with a brexit than continue to stay. I may be right or I may be wrong. What I won't be is frightened or threatened into someone elses opinion

lee666 · Post by **lee666** » Sun 22 May 2016 9:37 pm

mucker

Well said, each and everyone of us has an opinion whether right or wrong. NO ONE should feel under any pressure from anyone.

All those peddling to remain in the EU cannot, I repeat CANNOT say what it will be like on the outside. Yes, they can look into their remarkable crystal ball but even that will be wrong.

Are the British people able to stand on their own two feet, I 100% believe they are and refuse to put ourselves down.

All we have heard from the ON camp is scaremongering. Why you ask, because they do not have one shred of tangible evidence for us to remain.

erol · Post by **erol** » Sun 22 May 2016 10:32 pm

lee666 wrote:All those peddling to remain in the EU cannot, I repeat CANNOT say what it will be like on the outside. Yes, they can look into their remarkable crystal ball but even that will be wrong.

And those that support exit can say what it will be like on the outside ?

lee666 wrote:Are the British people able to stand on their own two feet, I 100% believe they are and refuse to put ourselves down.

Of course the British people can stand own their own feet. For me that is not however the question being asked of the British people. The question being asked is do we as the British people want to continue to try and work co operatively with the other members of the EU within the structures of the EU with an aim of achieving more benefit for all members than cost, or do we not want to chose to continue trying to do so.

lee666 wrote:All we have heard from the ON camp is scaremongering. Why you ask, because they do not have one shred of tangible evidence for us to remain.

Well examples can and have been given of where historically being within the EU has benefited UK citizens as a result and in ways that could not have been achieved by the UK alone outside of the EU, but despite this the refrain that all those who wish to remain have said is 'scaremongering' remain, which does feel somewhat frustrating.

I absolutely respect other people's right to want to leave the EU but I do expect and hope for some reciprocal respect for my right to wish to remain in it and to not just be labelled a 'scaremonger with no tangible evidence of the benefits of being in the EU' simply because I think remaining in is the best and right thing not just for the UK but for the EU as a whole and more generally the 'world' and I dare to express such here.

jofra · Post by **jofra** » Sun 22 May 2016 11:31 pm

"Scaremongering" is being carried out by BOTH sides - those supporting the "In" vote are suggesting what may happen (possible job losses, trade difficulties, investment losses etc) while those supporting the "Out" vote are suggesting what may happen (increased immigration, 'loss of sovereignty', over-riding of UK laws etc) - and unfortunately, while an ever-diminishing number are still prepared to discuss and submit their views in a reasonable manner, diatribes, rants and childish accusations and insults are sadly on the increase...
I wish, hope - but doubt - that it will all end after the actual referendum - but I suspect the vicious arguments and abuse will only increase - whichever way it goes....

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Mon 23 May 2016 6:01 am

"And those that support exit can say what it will be like on the outside ?"

Well yes they believe they can - you forget there are an awful lot of people who have lived both inside and outside the EC/EU....

When we joined it was to be part of an Economic Community but it has transmogrified into a federal super-state that rides rough-shod over the sovereignty and desires of its members...

If the EC had kept to original intention and not been so hell bent on making all nations magnolia it might have more supporters... me included.

Can it be reformed? Well it seems not - there is no evidence that it can pull back - it seems to be on a one-course route even though Jean-Claude Juncker has stated that it ought to pull back.... he is a lone voice in a sea of those determined otherwise.

All the stay campaign seems to be based on low self-esteem and fear....

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Mon 23 May 2016 6:03 am

jofra wrote:"Scaremongering" is being carried out by BOTH sides - those supporting the "In" vote are suggesting what may happen (possible job losses, trade difficulties, investment losses etc) while those supporting the "Out" vote are suggesting what may happen (increased immigration, 'loss of sovereignty', over-riding of UK laws etc) - and unfortunately, while an ever-diminishing number are still prepared to discuss and submit their views in a reasonable manner, diatribes, rants and childish accusations and insults are sadly on the increase...
I wish, hope - but doubt - that it will all end after the actual referendum - but I suspect the vicious arguments and abuse will only increase - whichever way it goes....

I don't think you can argue that "increased immigration, 'loss of sovereignty', over-riding of UK laws etc" is scaremongering because that would mean that it was doubtful to be true - we can all see those effects already.... we have all of those things quite evidently.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Mon 23 May 2016 7:00 am

I do not doubt the ability of the UK to stand on its own. The UK will survive after a possible BREXIT.
My case to remain IN centres around the level of prosperity and expectation that people think will be achieved as a stand alone. The world of economics, security, politics and even national identity is changing and will continue to change. The world continues to shrink and become a very small "country". No Country in the world now stands alone devoid of outside influence. Communications. the flow of money and equity, international trade, politics is truly global. The age old adage of what the UK has been simply does not apply. The World has moved on. Certainly the UK will strive to succeed but without the investment, involvement and indeed support of the rest of the world; the level of prosperity that we currently enjoy will be eroded. I have clearly made the case for that analysis.The UK's and world's current leaders in general have spoken for IN. People wishing to ignore these clear recommendations are free to do so on the basis that they are willing and able to weather the decline.
As I have said. Those with younger families back in the UK should think rather carefully for this generation currently or soon to be seeking their own path to prosperity within the UK economy. The ticket for these people to continued prosperity is IN. To start again at ground zero on trade, travel, security etc. is a massive and expensive hill to climb. It is unfair to burden youngsters with this unprofitable task. The UK is far from broken. The EU needs reforming with the UK's assistance. To walk away is failure for the EU and indeed the UK. Neither will roll over and die.

Geoff1131 · Post by **Geoff1131** » Mon 23 May 2016 8:45 am

waz can you clarify a few points for me? We have heard over the weekend the uk chancellor telling us that an exit would cause house prices to fall by between 10 and 18%. Let us for now accept these figures. Now if the uk votes to leave the eu then the uk government would again take control of immigration into the uk and not be told what the immigration policy had to be from outside the uk. So we leave the eu, and house prices drop. Would this not be a good thing? It would make house purchases by people we want to be resident in the uk more affordable. House prises historically go up and down so the balance would reset itself in time and as the majority of house owners in the country, own houses to actually live in, then a drop followed by a rise will do little to worry about. Another point that has been raised is security. The uk has one of the best police forces and armed forces units in the world. I cannot remember one episode where eu troops, police or any other security force has been sent to help out the uk units. Indeed the opposite has been the norm. Now trade. You have previously told us that if the uk exits then trade with the eu will be compromised. In you latest post you now claim that the world will be worried about trading with the uk. I don't know for sure, as you yourself do not know. But my money would be on every country in the world wanting to trade with the uk ( even counties still in the eu ) if the trading terms were to their liking.

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Mon 23 May 2016 9:16 am

waz-24-7 wrote:I do not doubt the ability of the UK to stand on its own. The UK will survive after a possible BREXIT.
My case to remain IN centres around the level of prosperity and expectation that people think will be achieved as a stand alone .

Therein lies the falsehood - the very idea that the world at large would leave us isolated and alone is a picture painted by the Stay campaign as a sure fire certainty of a UK exit.... it's not and anyone who suggests it is is simply trying to over-play their argument...

That's part of the problem with the Stay campaign - their claims of disaster simply draw on scenarios that did not exist pre-EU membership and will not occur after EU exit. So please stop using arguments that hold no water...

WTO and GAT agreements will not allow the cold-shoulder of UK trade in any meaningful terms - they may blockade our lamb - but then the EU was pretty powerless to stop that over the last 20 years!

The increasing alarmist claims of the Stay campaign are damaging their cause... As a vote 'leave' I don't mind that but the 'stayers' might want to re-think this tactic because it's not working for many....

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Mon 23 May 2016 9:22 am

Geoff1131 wrote:waz can you clarify a few points for me? We have heard over the weekend the uk chancellor telling us that an exit would cause house prices to fall by between 10 and 18%. Let us for now accept these figures. Now if the uk votes to leave the eu then the uk government would again take control of immigration into the uk and not be told what the immigration policy had to be from outside the uk. So we leave the eu, and house prices drop. Would this not be a good thing? It would make house purchases by people we want to be resident in the uk more affordable. House prises historically go up and down so the balance would reset itself in time and as the majority of house owners in the country, own houses to actually live in, then a drop followed by a rise will do little to worry about.

Yes Geoff - as someone who has two children just at the start of careers I would wholeheartedly welcome a cooling off of the inexorable rise in UK house prices... otherwise the market will suffer another catastrophic downturn when first time buyers and retirees are frozen out.... and thus no housing buyers/sellers chains are prevented from being 'topped and tailed'.

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Mon 23 May 2016 2:17 pm

jofra wrote:"Scaremongering" is being carried out by BOTH sides - those supporting the "In" vote are suggesting what may happen (possible job losses, trade difficulties, investment losses etc) while those supporting the "Out" vote are suggesting what may happen (increased immigration, 'loss of sovereignty', over-riding of UK laws etc) - and unfortunately, while an ever-diminishing number are still prepared to discuss and submit their views in a reasonable manner, diatribes, rants and childish accusations and insults are sadly on the increase...
I wish, hope - but doubt - that it will all end after the actual referendum - but I suspect the vicious arguments and abuse will only increase - whichever way it goes....

Not sure about any bad feeling on the EU threads ?
Yes people get very passionate about what they are debating but that is debate,...I think the discussion has been well mannered without any falling out I think if it got out of hand I am sure the mods would have had something to say about it.... Well done mods for allowing a free and frank exchange.

lee666 · Post by **lee666** » Mon 23 May 2016 5:35 pm

Interesting headline post 23rd June Vote

Given the choice between taking back control or being sucked ever deeper into a federal superstate, the British voted for independence on June 23. To no one’s very great surprise, Project Fear turned out to be a giant hoax. The markets were calm. The pound did not collapse. The British government immediately launched a highly effective and popular campaign across the Continent to explain that this was not a rejection of “Europe”, only of the supranational EU institutions; and a new relationship was rapidly forged based on free trade and with traditional British leadership on foreign policy, crime-fighting, intelligence-sharing and other intergovernmental cooperation.

The British felt suddenly and unexpectedly galvanised – with a renewed confidence in their democracy, and excitement about the new opportunities for global trade and partnership. The Brexit vote was followed by a powerful campaign for reform in Europe, and a widespread euphoria that at least one population had plucked up the courage to say that the emperor had no clothes.

After only a few years it became increasingly hard to find anyone who would confess to having voted Remain.

erol · Post by **erol** » Mon 23 May 2016 5:47 pm

lee666 wrote:Interesting headline post 23rd June Vote

Nice Borisism but I do have to say seems to me a little bit, er, inconsistent shall we say, that you choose to repeat them here given your earlier post of

lee666 wrote:All those peddling to remain in the EU cannot, I repeat CANNOT say what it will be like on the outside

(full Boris article here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05 ... -voted-to/)

lee666 · Post by **lee666** » Mon 23 May 2016 5:54 pm

Erol

Enjoy reading and posting on this thread, but can you say with 100% certainty this will not be the case if the vote went the Brexit way.

You only have to see what Osborne has said today just more of the same.

erol · Post by **erol** » Mon 23 May 2016 6:14 pm

lee666 wrote:Erol

Enjoy reading and posting on this thread, but can you say with 100% certainty this will not be the case if the vote went the Brexit way.

You only have to see what Osborne has said today just more of the same.

No I can not say with any certainty what the consequences of an out or in result will be, which is why I have not personally made any such claims here or quoted others who have made such claims. In fact I had myself said here three odd weeks ago

erol wrote:It seems to me that there are no facts as to what will happen should the UK vote to leave the EU on the majority of issues. There is only speculation as I see it.

I do however still find it a bit 'inconsistent' that someone who has first argued that no one can tell what the consequences of an in or out vote will be (aimed specifically at those who support 'remain) then goes on in their next post to quote an entire fictional / hypothetical story from a leading 'out' personality as to what the consequences of an out vote will be.

Yes Osborne and others supporting a remain vote have today ladled on more 'scare' stories but I am not Obsorne, I am not responsible for how he behaves, and I do feel some frustration at being linked to him and his behaviour , just because I also support remain and seemingly regardless of what I have actually said myself and how I have actually behaved myself. Then again maybe I am just being overly sensitive.

lee666 · Post by **lee666** » Mon 23 May 2016 7:40 pm

Erol

Just be you, that's it really! !

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Mon 23 May 2016 8:28 pm

https://youtu.be/PTgYSwlRrEU

AJay · Post by **AJay** » Mon 23 May 2016 9:02 pm

Major leak from Brussels reveals NHS will be ‘KILLED OFF’ if Britain remains in the EU
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/666454 ... pean-Union

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Tue 24 May 2016 7:09 pm

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/673271 ... -labour-mp

Dalartokat · Post by **Dalartokat** » Tue 24 May 2016 7:49 pm

turtle wrote:http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/673271 ... -labour-mp

Turtle, I spoke about this on Sunday ......http://www.kibkomnorthcyprusforum.com/v ... 68#p153268 and actually watched it on Sunday morning and I think Harriet Harman was bluffing her way through for some reason, she didn't seem to grasp the question that Andrew Neil was asking and when he showed the photos she just blurted out that she didn't know who they were, amusing others sitting there. You'd think she might have at least known 1 or 2

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Tue 24 May 2016 8:45 pm

Sorry about that...I missed your post !

Looks like the thread has now cooled since the "stay" politicians has scared the living daylights out of everyone.

erol · Post by **erol** » Tue 24 May 2016 9:55 pm

I do find all this 'do you recognise these EU commissioners' stuff kind of bizarre personally. The EU commission's closest analogue in the UK national system is 'civil servant'. How many people can recognise photos of the UK's most senior civil servants ? How many could name even one ?

(oh and btw I can recognise four of the 7 EU civil servants from photos in the express article)

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Tue 24 May 2016 9:57 pm

Geoff1131 wrote:waz can you clarify a few points for me? We have heard over the weekend the uk chancellor telling us that an exit would cause house prices to fall by between 10 and 18%. Let us for now accept these figures. Now if the uk votes to leave the eu then the uk government would again take control of immigration into the uk and not be told what the immigration policy had to be from outside the uk. So we leave the eu, and house prices drop. Would this not be a good thing? It would make house purchases by people we want to be resident in the uk more affordable. House prises historically go up and down so the balance would reset itself in time and as the majority of house owners in the country, own houses to actually live in, then a drop followed by a rise will do little to worry about. Another point that has been raised is security. The uk has one of the best police forces and armed forces units in the world. I cannot remember one episode where eu troops, police or any other security force has been sent to help out the uk units. Indeed the opposite has been the norm. Now trade. You have previously told us that if the uk exits then trade with the eu will be compromised. In you latest post you now claim that the world will be worried about trading with the uk. I don't know for sure, as you yourself do not know. But my money would be on every country in the world wanting to trade with the uk ( even counties still in the eu ) if the trading terms were to their liking.

Geoff 131
Immigration into the UK is not solely from the EU. I believe that EU immigration is less than 50% of the total over the past decade. I do not expect any massive change to immigration in the event of BREXIT. Why? The UK economy makes very good use of labour and skills that people from other countries are able to provide. It is the economic case that is for me the most critical. House prices will fall upon the decline of the economy. House prices are one of the first indicators of recession. That is the basis of the forecast. The world will not be worried about trading with the UK. Trade is governed by commercial advantage. The UK if OUT will lose commercial investment advantage due to the absence of the free market economy.
Please do not under estimate the value of being in a free market economy. For the UK it equates to about 3 million jobs and billions (£)of foreign currency earnings

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Tue 24 May 2016 10:02 pm

AJay wrote:Major leak from Brussels reveals NHS will be ‘KILLED OFF’ if Britain remains in the EU
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/666454 ... pean-Union

The national health service in the UK is NOT under the command of Brussels. I cannot see any advantage or benefit to anyone if the NHS was killed off.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Tue 24 May 2016 10:15 pm

Anyone who watches the markets will have noticed an increased level of confidence in the past 4-5 days for UK currency and business. This, in my view is based upon the rolling out of IN support from major industrialists and political big guns. Some will be buying forward and hedge funds are ready to make a potential killing. On polling day, I expect market in GBP and equities to be volatile. As soon as exit polling numbers start to come in ( even before final results) the markets will react swiftly. It is likely to be one of the biggest trading days for some time to come. This is a reflection upon the economic projections that many leaders of influence have documented. If anyone thinks it will be business as normal and that the UK economy will launch off the blocks or even remain buoyant should please offer some support to that hope.

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Tue 24 May 2016 10:17 pm

erol wrote:I do find all this 'do you recognise these EU commissioners' stuff kind of bizarre personally. The EU commission's closest analogue in the UK national system is 'civil servant'. How many people can recognise photos of the UK's most senior civil servants ? How many could name even one ?

(oh and btw I can recognise four of the 7 EU civil servants from photos in the express article)

Erol
I also find it bizarre that you align these people with Civil Servants ?
Civil Servants work for a government dept while the magnificent 7 are heads of the most powerful depts in the EU .

Hardly the same is it ?

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Tue 24 May 2016 10:34 pm

Groucho wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:I do not doubt the ability of the UK to stand on its own. The UK will survive after a possible BREXIT.
My case to remain IN centres around the level of prosperity and expectation that people think will be achieved as a stand alone .
Therein lies the falsehood - the very idea that the world at large would leave us isolated and alone is a picture painted by the Stay campaign as a sure fire certainty of a UK exit.... it's not and anyone who suggests it is is simply trying to over-play their argument...

That's part of the problem with the Stay campaign - their claims of disaster simply draw on scenarios that did not exist pre-EU membership and will not occur after EU exit. So please stop using arguments that hold no water...

WTO and GAT agreements will not allow the cold-shoulder of UK trade in any meaningful terms - they may blockade our lamb - but then the EU was pretty powerless to stop that over the last 20 years!

The increasing alarmist claims of the Stay campaign are damaging their cause... As a vote 'leave' I don't mind that but the 'stayers' might want to re-think this tactic because it's not working for many....

Groucho,
BREXIT will not be a disaster as such. I have said that the UK will survive. Survival and prosperity are two very different aspirations. I know what I want for myself and my teenage daughters. The World will not leave the UK isolated. Why would it? It is investment, trade and business that will decline upon BREXIT because of the absence from the free trade market and clear difficulties in replacing the scheme quickly and efficiently. The need to enter into lengthy trade deal negotiations and all the red tape and flack that will be generated by the changes in trading terms is a hindrance to trade. The World will NOT wait whilst the Uk gets its house in order and certainly our competitors will grasp the opportunity to attack the gaps and opportunities. There is certainly no golden rule books that dictates trade, commerce and investment. The best players with the best offers in town are the winners. Negative play such as BREXIT will simply not score the goals required.

erol · Post by **erol** » Tue 24 May 2016 11:37 pm

turtle wrote: Erol
I also find it bizarre that you align these people with Civil Servants ?
Civil Servants work for a government dept while the magnificent 7 are heads of the most powerful depts in the EU .

Hardly the same is it ?

In the UK civil servants draft legislation. MP's pass legislation. Civil servants can not pass legislation.

In the EU the Commission drafts legislation. The Council (heads of state of member countries) pass legislation. The Commission can not pass legislation.

The Commission is not directly comparable to Civil Servants in the UK, but in the essence of their responsibilities and powers that IS the closest analogue.

Can you name, without looking it up on Google, a single (unelected) Permanent Under-Secretary of State , or permanent Secretary of any British government ministry current or past ?

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Wed 25 May 2016 5:22 am

waz-24-7 wrote:BREXIT will not be a disaster as such. I have said that the UK will survive. Survival and prosperity are two very different aspirations. I know what I want for myself and my teenage daughters. The World will not leave the UK isolated. Why would it? It is investment, trade and business that will decline upon BREXIT because of the absence from the free trade market and clear difficulties in replacing the scheme quickly and efficiently. The need to enter into lengthy trade deal negotiations and all the red tape and flack that will be generated by the changes in trading terms is a hindrance to trade. The World will NOT wait whilst the Uk gets its house in order and certainly our competitors will grasp the opportunity to attack the gaps and opportunities. There is certainly no golden rule books that dictates trade, commerce and investment. The best players with the best offers in town are the winners. Negative play such as BREXIT will simply not score the goals required.

More sporting analogies?

I'm glad you realise "BREXIT will not be a disaster as such" which is a very different picture from the one being painted by the Stay campaign.

The length of trade negotiations is being used as a reason to fear exit from the EU.... In the past trade negotiations have taken a long time to settle but there is no reason that, with WTO and the GAT agreements already in place, there should be any halt to trade at all - no existing trade agreements need to be torn-up as they are not merely limited to EU membership - it's just the Project Fear trying to put the wind up the man in the street in the hope of sewing the seeds of doubt they require to skew the vote.

You make claims that trade and investment will decline post exit - I and many other commentators argue that investors from outside the EU will see the UK as a better place to invest without the shackles the EU imposes... without the baggage of being tied to failed economies like Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain.... the list is large and we are damaged by association (not association football). There are economies still to emerge as failing that are being masked so not to rock the boat further and fatally undermine the Euro. Now that we know Greece are never going to repay the loan interest and are looking for massive write-off of the core debt and being given more loans, more Euro zone countries will be driven to the brink....

As I have said before the EU is a good idea but badly implemented - and in my opinion is out of control and beyond revision in any reasonable terms to make it what it ought to be in any time scale that would render remaining a worthwhile option- the genie is out of the bottle and refuses point blank to get back in...

Maybe we have different goals but I see a much more self-reliant self-confident future for the UK without further loss of control and less EU interference in domestic accountability....

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 8:49 am

erol wrote:
turtle wrote: Erol
I also find it bizarre that you align these people with Civil Servants ?
Civil Servants work for a government dept while the magnificent 7 are heads of the most powerful depts in the EU .

Hardly the same is it ?
In the UK civil servants draft legislation. MP's pass legislation. Civil servants can not pass legislation.

In the EU the Commission drafts legislation. The Council (heads of state of member countries) pass legislation. The Commission can not pass legislation.

The Commission is not directly comparable to Civil Servants in the UK, but in the essence of their responsibilities and powers that IS the closest analogue.

Can you name, without looking it up on Google, a single (unelected) Permanent Under-Secretary of State , or permanent Secretary of any British
government ministry current or past ?

Erol
You are correct I can not name a single under secretary but the fact is I am not a member of parliament. You would have thought that MP's would know who the persons responsible for making EU law would be given the fact that we have to adopt these laws when they are made ,.. but I guess if you are a fanatical EU supporter then I suppose it doesn't matter. ?
You make it sound like the UK laws are made very simply but you are very aware that a law will pass at least 14/15 processors to actually reach law stage but in the EU this is not the case as your man Varoufakis alluded to in one of your previous posts.

erol · Post by **erol** » Wed 25 May 2016 5:05 pm

turtle wrote: You make it sound like the UK laws are made very simply but you are very aware that a law will pass at least 14/15 processors to actually reach law stage but in the EU this is not the case as your man Varoufakis alluded to in one of your previous posts.

Passing laws in the EU is not a simple process either and the fact remains that the EU Commission can not pass laws, it can only draft them. They are passed by the EU Council, which is the elected (and generally recognisable) heads of state of the member countries. Varoufakis is highly critical of the functioning of things like the ECOFIN group within the EU. This is made up of the elected finance ministers of the member states (and I think most MP's and people in the street would recognise say George Osborne) and the lack of transparency of groups like these. He suggest for example that all ECOFIN meetings should be minuted and the minutes publish and this is exactly the kind of reform of the EU I think is necessary and support. Unfortunately this is exactly the kind of reform that the UK has NOT sought whilst being a member of the EU. The UK should in my personal opinion remain within the EU and seek this kind of reform, rather than seek to secure exceptions for the UK.

Geoff1131 · Post by **Geoff1131** » Wed 25 May 2016 5:22 pm

There was a good explanation of the in / out points this morning on the BBC news. It was explained that the 350 million pounds a week under discussion was not actually 350 million at all. After the rebate was taken off and the eu payment to the uk together with the farm and fishery subsidies the actual overpayment which the uk would benefit by was ONLY 161 million pounds a week.

Then trade was looked at and apparently the uk is a net importer from the Eurozone by quite some amount, so maybe the pessimism shown by the in brigade is a bit out of line. After all , would Germany want to stop selling their goods in the uk to the tune of some 80% differential to the uk exports?

The BBC are looking at the pro's and Con's of the referendum every day this week, I will be watching again tomorrow.

At the moment my heart say's vote out and my head say's vote out so for now I will go with that.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Wed 25 May 2016 7:59 pm

Groucho wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:BREXIT will not be a disaster as such. I have said that the UK will survive. Survival and prosperity are two very different aspirations. I know what I want for myself and my teenage daughters. The World will not leave the UK isolated. Why would it? It is investment, trade and business that will decline upon BREXIT because of the absence from the free trade market and clear difficulties in replacing the scheme quickly and efficiently. The need to enter into lengthy trade deal negotiations and all the red tape and flack that will be generated by the changes in trading terms is a hindrance to trade. The World will NOT wait whilst the Uk gets its house in order and certainly our competitors will grasp the opportunity to attack the gaps and opportunities. There is certainly no golden rule books that dictates trade, commerce and investment. The best players with the best offers in town are the winners. Negative play such as BREXIT will simply not score the goals required.
More sporting analogies?

I'm glad you realise "BREXIT will not be a disaster as such" which is a very different picture from the one being painted by the Stay campaign.

The length of trade negotiations is being used as a reason to fear exit from the EU.... In the past trade negotiations have taken a long time to settle but there is no reason that, with WTO and the GAT agreements already in place, there should be any halt to trade at all - no existing trade agreements need to be torn-up as they are not merely limited to EU membership - it's just the Project Fear trying to put the wind up the man in the street in the hope of sewing the seeds of doubt they require to skew the vote.

You make claims that trade and investment will decline post exit - I and many other commentators argue that investors from outside the EU will see the UK as a better place to invest without the shackles the EU imposes... without the baggage of being tied to failed economies like Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain.... the list is large and we are damaged by association (not association football). There are economies still to emerge as failing that are being masked so not to rock the boat further and fatally undermine the Euro. Now that we know Greece are never going to repay the loan interest and are looking for massive write-off of the core debt and being given more loans, more Euro zone countries will be driven to the brink....

As I have said before the EU is a good idea but badly implemented - and in my opinion is out of control and beyond revision in any reasonable terms to make it what it ought to be in any time scale that would render remaining a worthwhile option- the genie is out of the bottle and refuses point blank to get back in...

Maybe we have different goals but I see a much more self-reliant self-confident future for the UK without further loss of control and less EU interference in domestic accountability....

Grouco
Trade negotiation fears are based on the uncertainty about the outcome of any negotiation. Currently the UK has FREE TRADE agreements with the Union and it 500 million consumers. Why please would you want to walk away from this and what is the cost. Both sides have pros and cons that is clear. The decline in the UK economy is in my view the biggest negative of a BREXIT.
On investment. It is a competition for investment. Each union member competes for trade and investment. if the EU presents shackles then yes they would fail to win. However without access to the 500 millions consumers via FREE TRADE then the UK is not even on the field. Your point upon Greece has some substance but this is a short term issue as the Greek economy moves from disaster recovery to growth. These issues are not reason enough to vote OUT. A self reliant UK or indeed any other country is not the recipe for long term prosperity. Countries and nations are far more connected and reliant on each other as terrorism, migration, immigration and global trade and commerce have massive influence on the planet generally, The UK must win investment and sell goods and services to the global economy with no exceptions.

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 8:11 pm

erol wrote:
turtle wrote: You make it sound like the UK laws are made very simply but you are very aware that a law will pass at least 14/15 processors to actually reach law stage but in the EU this is not the case as your man Varoufakis alluded to in one of your previous posts.
Passing laws in the EU is not a simple process either and the fact remains that the EU Commission can not pass laws, it can only draft them. They are passed by the EU Council, which is the elected (and generally recognisable) heads of state of the member countries. Varoufakis is highly critical of the functioning of things like the ECOFIN group within the EU. This is made up of the elected finance ministers of the member states (and I think most MP's and people in the street would recognise say George Osborne) and the lack of transparency of groups like these. He suggest for example that all ECOFIN meetings should be minuted and the minutes publish and this is exactly the kind of reform of the EU I think is necessary and support. Unfortunately this is exactly the kind of reform that the UK has NOT sought whilst being a member of the EU. The UK should in my personal opinion remain within the EU and seek this kind of reform, rather than seek to secure exceptions for the UK.

Erol
I find it very hard to stomach that most people admit that the EU needs reforming yet the only answer we get is to stay in and try to reform it?.
The very people that have created it are going to sit around and discuss ways of changing it,... not going to happen its like asking Mugabe or Assad to change their ways it simply will not happen and if people think it will then they are deluded.
It's took them over 40yrs to build this monster why would they want to change it.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Wed 25 May 2016 8:15 pm

Geoff1131 wrote:There was a good explanation of the in / out points this morning on the BBC news. It was explained that the 350 million pounds a week under discussion was not actually 350 million at all. After the rebate was taken off and the eu payment to the uk together with the farm and fishery subsidies the actual overpayment which the uk would benefit by was ONLY 161 million pounds a week.

Then trade was looked at and apparently the uk is a net importer from the Eurozone by quite some amount, so maybe the pessimism shown by the in brigade is a bit out of line. After all , would Germany want to stop selling their goods in the uk to the tune of some 80% differential to the uk exports?

The BBC are looking at the pro's and Con's of the referendum every day this week, I will be watching again tomorrow.

At the moment my heart say's vote out and my head say's vote out so for now I will go with that.

Geoff1131
I think your quoted figure upon trade deficit (80%) with the Union is wrong. The UK is a massive exporter to the Union and the benefits of this trade are foreign currency flow into our economy is massive also. The UK sells more to the EU than we buy by some 20%. Certainly Germany will want to continue selling goods into the UK like they do now. Why would they stop? A BREXIT will offer no obstacles to that trade unless you are thinking we should halt ( tariff) imports of foreign goods as well as migrants.
It is UK exports that become threatened because of exit from the FREE Market status you propose. More importantly it is the risk to investment that I think will dictate prosperity for at least the next 2 decades. The UK will need a very competitive strategy to win investment against members of the UNION that retain access to the FREE market economy. I have seen no plausible strategy from the OUT brigade.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Wed 25 May 2016 8:35 pm

turtle wrote:
erol wrote:
turtle wrote: You make it sound like the UK laws are made very simply but you are very aware that a law will pass at least 14/15 processors to actually reach law stage but in the EU this is not the case as your man Varoufakis alluded to in one of your previous posts.
Passing laws in the EU is not a simple process either and the fact remains that the EU Commission can not pass laws, it can only draft them. They are passed by the EU Council, which is the elected (and generally recognisable) heads of state of the member countries. Varoufakis is highly critical of the functioning of things like the ECOFIN group within the EU. This is made up of the elected finance ministers of the member states (and I think most MP's and people in the street would recognise say George Osborne) and the lack of transparency of groups like these. He suggest for example that all ECOFIN meetings should be minuted and the minutes publish and this is exactly the kind of reform of the EU I think is necessary and support. Unfortunately this is exactly the kind of reform that the UK has NOT sought whilst being a member of the EU. The UK should in my personal opinion remain within the EU and seek this kind of reform, rather than seek to secure exceptions for the UK.

Erol
I find it very hard to stomach that most people admit that the EU needs reforming yet the only answer we get is to stay in and try to reform it?.
The very people that have created it are going to sit around and discuss ways of changing it,... not going to happen its like asking Mugabe or Assad to change their ways it simply will not happen and if people think it will then they are deluded.
It's took them over 40yrs to build this monster why would they want to change it.

Turtle,
I am dismayed at your notion that the EU is a monster. It is a view and it is clear that you think we are best OUT and divorced. What then of the approx. £12 billion this monster spends on UK goods and services every week. How do you think the Union members will react with regard to their spending power and where they source the goods and services. Certainly at best Union /UK spend is not going to improve. Most likely decline. I hope you can see why, loss of all the associated benefits of trade. Recession is very likely. Surely common sense can identify the clear risks involved.
Too much to loose based on a dissatisfaction of current issues that can be reformed. Please give it another chance. I estimate another referendum in 15yrs unless we vote OUT. Then its no going back or second chance without massive penalties at least.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Wed 25 May 2016 8:55 pm

Good evening all,
Given the reluctance of many to take senior economic and political authors recommendations on the IN vote.

Martin Lewis... respected consumer champion.

"on balance of probability it is more likely we'll have less money in our pockets if we vote to leave"

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 9:33 pm

If it's a "free" market why does it cost us £350m per year ?

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 9:35 pm

Why do EU politicians get awarded £45k expenses every year and don't have to produce receipts ?

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 9:43 pm

Why are we being fed the same rhetoric they fed Norway..twice ?

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Wed 25 May 2016 10:01 pm

turtle wrote:If it's a "free" market why does it cost us £350m per year ?

Turtle,
The contribution made by each member state are for the administration, governance, development projects etc. I must agree that the spend can be put to better use within the EU hence the case for continued reform. However let there be no mistake if you gave the same money to our own government to invest The return on the investment would not touch the return and benefits that the UK secures by being in the Union.
The FREE market is the term used to describe the FREE MARKET ECONOMY. Each and every Union member can freely trade, sell, and do business within the FREE MARKET with no barriers, tariffs, or encumbrances. The UK has been top two performer in this Market for many years and our prosperity has increased to a level ranking to the 5th largest economy in the World. Let there be no misunderstanding of the risk that a BREXIT will present to this status and the consequential benefits

erol · Post by **erol** » Wed 25 May 2016 10:02 pm

turtle wrote:If it's a "free" market why does it cost us £350m per year ?

Free - without restriction. Free - I get something for nothing.

(ps I think you got your 'propaganda' figure wrong there - am sure you meant £350m a month and not year ? )

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Wed 25 May 2016 10:05 pm

turtle wrote:Why do EU politicians get awarded £45k expenses every year and don't have to produce receipts ?

This a tiny insignificant issue in the scheme that does not warrant an OUT vote. The UK government is frankly no better . Waste and poor value for money is an international phenomenon within every government in the World.

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 10:09 pm

But Waz...you are telling us to have trust in our politicians who are advising us to stay but you then tell us they are hopeless ?

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Wed 25 May 2016 10:12 pm

Thank you Erol for the correction to my mistake.
£350m for free trade...it's like saying here you can have this kettle free of charge but you need to pay me £350m for handing it over.

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