Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

£ is currently just short of 4tl.
Thoughts on where this is leading?

Won't be converting my few thousand Lira to sterling any time soon.

I think it is leading to a crippled economy, massive inflation and problems for idiots like my self who changed all there money into Lira.

But those few dozen tourists who venture here each year with stg. Its party time. But they do tend to overlook the fact that many things are now much higher priced than their last visit.

Lets hope it does not lead to devaluation !

You need to set buy and sell limits for liquid assets shares currency property
Te property is less liquid but would you be better off renting?
I made the mistake of not selling when some shares were falling it cost me a lot
You get to a stage when you dont look and become an ostridge with your head in the sand and thats when you loose the lot

Wonder whats caused it this time

I think it is all to do with the politics in Turkey and Erdogan poking his nose into business matters. The Lira is very weak against the US Dollar. I think it is a confidence issue again. Daresay it will improve in time though, just need to hold nerve with regard to investments, which are benefitting from high interest rates, and take advantage of good exchange rate if pensions are paid in sterling. Can have the best of both worlds if you don't want to change Lira back to Sterling any time soon.

Now 4 tl to gbp

I think there are bigger problems ahead as I have never known the TL to change to any rate like this almost overnight.
It's a difficult situation do you take a loss and run or hold on and maybe lose more money if they do devalue the TL or it becomes weaker. The worse scenario now would be if the banks cut the interest rates, then we are down the river without a paddle.
It doesn't effect the locals who have money in the banks as theirs has always been in TL so makes no difference to them it's only us greedy old expats that are suffering now.
Ride the storm I say as they are building loads of council houses now in the uk for us if it goes pear shaped. Lol

This is a market rejection of Erdogan's intention to grab the reins of the economy after the election.

It's a guessing game how far he will go but if he cuts rates aggressively you will see a run on the currency. The big boys are getting out of lira and into more stable currencies (as well as going "short" lira)

You should have a fair mixture of pounds/dollar/lira available if you don't live in TRNC permanently.

If you do live there permanently - keep an eye on Erdogan.

But if you live here permanently, only have small savings in local banks in TL and get your pensions paid into UK accounts in Sterling which you can draw here then convert into TL as you wish, the only thing that creeps into the back of the mind is how much TL you converted from £ in the first place when you put it into savings. If you can get over the fact that your £10K was worth X when you put it in but now only worth £8K BUT is still worth the same amount (plus the interest) of TL, where is the problem for us?

I repeat here I am only talking about small savings of no more than £10K anyway. Also only talking about people who live here full time with no intention of ever leaving.

Sorry for locals(and others) paid in TL paying rent in sterling.

Seems like the Turkish Lira will be weak until the Turkish elections.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkis ... sCatID=344

After that who knows?

I made the mistake of putting too much sterling into Lira before we bought our apartment. (I'd assumed that although the price was quoted in sterling that they would want payment in Lira - they didn't!).

So on the one hand I've 'lost' money, but on the other hand the interest rate on my Lira savings account has been more than twice the percentage of the rate my Sterling savings account in the TRNC, and my Sterling account in the TRNC is paying almost three times as much in percentage terms as my savings account in the UK. I suppose you win some, you lose some!

Johnny Lee wrote:I think it is leading to a crippled economy, massive inflation and problems for idiots like my self who changed all there money into Lira.

But those few dozen tourists who venture here each year with stg. Its party time. But they do tend to overlook the fact that many things are now much higher priced than their last visit.

Lets hope it does not lead to devaluation !

Lee you should have been a politician!

Yes Ken it has been said before. Because DJs can talk almost as much bulls--t as politicians so I am in with a chance.

Actually I do remember forecasting in 1983 that Credit Cards would cripple the economy .

But I don't think I could really be one because I live in the real world and do have a little something between my ears.

Johnny Lee wrote:Yes Ken it has been said before. Because DJs can talk almost as much bulls--t as politicians so I am in with a chance.

Actually I do remember forecasting in 1983 that Credit Cards would cripple the economy .

But I don't think I could really be one because I live in the real world and do have a little something between my ears.

Running with the fox and chasing with the hounds, springs to mind

Devaluation historically follows the perception that a currency is too strong and its strength is hurting exports and encouraging imports... distinctly not the case for Turkey.

Those living in Cyprus should not take into account local factors as putting pressure on in the lira - we are a drop in the ocean. Best estimates population less than 700k in north... size of one large town/small city. Set against the population of Turkey it's pretty small beer.

Turkey remains a strong manufacturing performer and one of the 'MINT' nations forecast to do well. The pound is undoubtedly strong off the back of expectations that the Conservatives will romp home in the election and the Euro -based nations inherent weakness still causing worries.

If you've got all your eggs in one lira basket then it's uncomfortable to watch the slide but if your income is part lira part sterling why panic?

You could chase currencies but unless you are happy to sit there most of the day to-ing-and-fro-ing (not something I want to spend my life doing) then it's not for you.

Every spring Turkey allows the lira to fade - it helps to make Turkey a tourist hot spot - Turkish goods a bargain. Oh, and it has happened every year since we came here (10)...

Erdogan is perceived to be a loose cannon in some quarters, it remains to be seen how far he will attempt to take his meddling before the populace lose patience. The antis like to portray him as unpopular but he has quite a following.

Well very soon ,like after the UK election the pound will take a tumble .

It's kept strong until after the election ,then it will dive down a bit v euro ,dollar etc


Kav

"The pound is undoubtedly strong off the back of expectations that the Conservatives will romp home in the election "

As much as I would welcome this I don't this this will happen ?

turtle wrote:"The pound is undoubtedly strong off the back of expectations that the Conservatives will romp home in the election "

As much as I would welcome this I don't this this will happen ?

Oh ye of little etc., etc.

My forecast was "The pound is undoubtedly strong off the back of expectations that the Conservatives will romp home in the election"

Few pundits saw this coming but couldn't see any other outcome - given the economic indicators it seemed a shoe-in to me.

We shall see today....

£1 = 4.17tl this morning.
Much as I have never supported the Tories, this was the best result for us.

Very True. Check the photo.

TRNCVaughan wrote:£1 = 4.17tl this morning.
Much as I have never supported the Tories, this was the best result for us.

Where did you get this Vaughan the best I can see is 4.12 @ the moment.

Thanks for that Vaughan very nice but you wont get that here. m8.

Royalcorpsoftranspor wrote:Thanks for that Vaughan very nice but you wont get that here. m8.

Not yet, but maybe next week.

TRNCVaughan wrote:£1 = 4.17tl this morning.
Much as I have never supported the Tories, this was the best result for us.

Depends what you consider is best for you.

A labour victory would have seen a weaker pound and higher interest rates.

Hedge-fund wrote:

TRNCVaughan wrote:£1 = 4.17tl this morning.
Much as I have never supported the Tories, this was the best result for us.

Depends what you consider is best for you.

A labour victory would have seen a weaker pound and higher interest rates.

As a pensioner, a weaker pound would be of no help to me and others. Given the average age of ex-pats here most will probably be in receipt of a sterling state pension and perhaps a UK occupational pension.

How long will this strength of Sterling last, that is a result of the removal of 'uncertainty' coming into the election ? It looks like a real chance that the UK will vote on its future within the EU and it seems to me that will create 'uncertainty' in the markets that has to affect Sterling. And what of Scotland now ? Home rule ? Federation ? New independence vote ? I have never seen an election like this in my life, there were swings in Scotland as high as 40% ! If uncertainty undermines Sterling's strength then I can only see that uncertainty increasing and building over the next few years in the UK, once this short term Tory 'euphoria' dies down

Even if you have lost out by changing Sterling into Lira, if you are getting 8-11% on Lira deposits, that does help to reduce any losses.

erol wrote:How long will this strength of Sterling last, that is a result of the removal of 'uncertainty' coming into the election ? It looks like a real chance that the UK will vote on its future within the EU and it seems to me that will create 'uncertainty' in the markets that has to affect Sterling. And what of Scotland now ? Home rule ? Federation ? New independence vote ? I have never seen an election like this in my life, there were swings in Scotland as high as 40% ! If uncertainty undermines Sterling's strength then I can only see that uncertainty increasing and building over the next few years in the UK, once this short term Tory 'euphoria' dies down

I think it highly unlikely that there will be any genuine vote on Europe.

Now will there be any moves to dispose of the stupid "Human Rights" legislation.

Cynical, Moi? No, just a realist.

How much have prices hone up by over the last year to reflect .
I was in turkey in April and a beer ( efes ) was 9 lira etc

Kav

Kavenkoy.
You were in the posh part, we only pay 8TL here in Gazipasa, but again there are no EU tourist.

Kavenkoy wrote:How much have prices hone up by over the last year to reflect .
I was in turkey in April and a beer ( efes ) was 9 lira etc

Kav

Turkey has always been more expensive for certain items than TRNC.

TRNCVaughan wrote:

Kavenkoy wrote:How much have prices hone up by over the last year to reflect .
I was in turkey in April and a beer ( efes ) was 9 lira etc

Kav

Turkey has always been more expensive for certain items than TRNC.

Unsure how and what is more expensive in turkey Vaughan ,what have you noticed ?

I did notice electrical bits were a lot lower .
Beer is the international price guide ....though in supermarkets they were still that 4 lira ish .

Kav

Kavenkoy wrote:

TRNCVaughan wrote:

Kavenkoy wrote:How much have prices hone up by over the last year to reflect .
I was in turkey in April and a beer ( efes ) was 9 lira etc

Kav

Turkey has always been more expensive for certain items than TRNC.

Unsure how and what is more expensive in turkey Vaughan ,what have you noticed ?

I did notice electrical bits were a lot lower .
Beer is the international price guide ....though in supermarkets they were still that 4 lira ish .

Kav

Petrol for one. It reflects in transport costs and thereby to retail costs.

I am paying 4.75 TL a ltr for 95 at the moment, it has gone up 40kr in the last three weeks.
Most cars run on Gas LPG it cost 2.63 ltr but the wagons are paying 4.30 ltr for diesel.
There is a big black market on diesel which comes across the border from Syria.
The customs payment at the border is 50ltrs a tanker, I have a friend who has 10 tankers doing this route, a gallon of diesel in Syria is $1.
With the troubles on the border he is finding it hard to keep making the trips.

karmels wrote:I am paying 4.75 TL a ltr for 95 at the moment, it has gone up 40kr in the last three weeks.
Most cars run on Gas LPG it cost 2.63 ltr but the wagons are paying 4.30 ltr for diesel.
There is a big black market on diesel which comes across the border from Syria.
The customs payment at the border is 50ltrs a tanker, I have a friend who has 10 tankers doing this route, a gallon of diesel in Syria is $1.
With the troubles on the border he is finding it hard to keep making the trips.

UK fuels also have crept back up over last month .
A litre of diesal was 105 when all the noises were being made around march time .
March on record was the lowest sales of fuel at the pumps in UK. In 25 years ,yes that shocked me .
Since then it's crept back up to today's diesal of 118.9 .....

Kav
May be watch UK prices and interest rates go up now anyway this year and surprises surprise I kind of think we will all be worse off next year in some way or another

"It's being so cheerful that keeps me going" Let's face it, there is sod all we can do about it! unless you want to go back to the UK, I DO NOT!!

Owl Lady.
Well said.

The current rate makes the Royal British Legion Charity Night Sat 30th May (less than 3 weeks away) at the Savoy with a 3 course meal / unlimited premium drinks / entertainment package headlined by the brilliant Bobby Davro and all for charity a complete bargain.
Reserve your tickets now by calling 0533 856 3891 or contacting events@rblkyrenia.com ...... come and join the party

As of 0900 today 12/5 the rate you should be receiving should be 4.18 tl to the £.
However they seem to be slow on up dating their rates.

[quote="Steve C"]As of 0900 today 12/5 the rate you should be receiving should be 4.18 tl to the £.
However they seem to be slow on up dating their rates.[/quote

Where will this be then, the highest I can find here @ the moment is 4.14.

It's 4.20 to £ on XE now. I got 4.13 yesterday at Money Exchange.
Just rechecked an hour later and it's back down to 4.18.

TRNCVaughan wrote:

Royalcorpsoftranspor wrote:Thanks for that Vaughan very nice but you wont get that here. m8.

Not yet, but maybe next week.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... Y&view=12h