Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

Early next year will be requiring quite a few American dollars. Deli met. Should I be purchasing them now as seems good rate, well bits I understand. Then if we have a Bank of England rise does that make a difference. Just a little advice. Thank you.

rocking wrote:Early next year will be requiring quite a few American dollars. Deli met. Should I be purchasing them now as seems good rate, well bits I understand. Then if we have a Bank of England rise does that make a difference. Just a little advice. Thank you.

You can hedge your bets and buy half now and half just before you go - you will always achieve a mid-point that way.... the waiting game or going now is a 50/50 gamble. It depends on how the trends go - but I'd put money on the dollar being cheaper later when the euphoria of surviving the credit debt crash drives home some hard truths - the US is trillions and trillions in debt.... Smoke and mirrors for the US elections.

BTW I make no claim to being either clever or a money man!

At the moment the markets are pricing in that the FOMC will raise rates 6 months before the Bank of England so the dollar will remain strong relatively for the time being.

The US rate rise should come before the end of the year and the UK should follow in Spring 2016.

My advice is to change up just after the US rate rise.

Anyone who could give a decent answer would not be wasting their time on this forum.

I thought Groucho's answer was a decent one!

Hedge-fund wrote:At the moment the markets are pricing in that the FOMC will raise rates 6 months before the Bank of England so the dollar will remain strong relatively for the time being.

The US rate rise should come before the end of the year and the UK should follow in Spring 2016.

My advice is to change up just after the US rate rise.

Love to know your views on the sterling/lira situation.

Thank you for those posts above, will keep my eye on US rate rise.

Yes what about the Turkish Lire
When to change back to Pound or just keepI
Sinking ???

TRNCVaughan wrote:

Hedge-fund wrote:At the moment the markets are pricing in that the FOMC will raise rates 6 months before the Bank of England so the dollar will remain strong relatively for the time being.

The US rate rise should come before the end of the year and the UK should follow in Spring 2016.

My advice is to change up just after the US rate rise.

Love to know your views on the sterling/lira situation.

The value of a country's currency is what the financial world thinks of its present situation.

The UK is, relative to Turkey, politically stable, overseen by an independent judiciary system (including strong property ownership laws), geographically safe from war etc etc. It has come through the worse of the economic crises and its next move in rates will be up.

Turkey is currently in a political void, curbing individual freedoms and edging into a very complicated regional conflict. It's facing 2 ways in each of the syria/isis/kurds/west camps. Money has flooded out of it as the established regions have recovered and are looking to raise rates.

The future?

I think Turkey is in trouble for the next 2 years. It's chances of default on government bonds is growing and if that happens there will be a full blown crises.

So as far as sterling/lira is concerned there is no crystal ball but, medium term ( 2 years) I can't see the lira recovering the value it has lost over the last 18 months.

Hedge-fund wrote:

TRNCVaughan wrote:

Hedge-fund wrote:At the moment the markets are pricing in that the FOMC will raise rates 6 months before the Bank of England so the dollar will remain strong relatively for the time being.

The US rate rise should come before the end of the year and the UK should follow in Spring 2016.

My advice is to change up just after the US rate rise.

Love to know your views on the sterling/lira situation.

The value of a country's currency is what the financial world thinks of its present situation.

The UK is, relative to Turkey, politically stable, overseen by an independent judiciary system (including strong property ownership laws), geographically safe from war etc etc. It has come through the worse of the economic crises and its next move in rates will be up.

Turkey is currently in a political void, curbing individual freedoms and edging into a very complicated regional conflict. It's facing 2 ways in each of the syria/isis/kurds/west camps. Money has flooded out of it as the established regions have recovered and are looking to raise rates.

The future?

I think Turkey is in trouble for the next 2 years. It's chances of default on government bonds is growing and if that happens there will be a full blown crises.

So as far as sterling/lira is concerned there is no crystal ball but, medium term ( 2 years) I can't see the lira recovering the value it has lost over the last 18 months.

I agree, unfortunately Turkish voters seem to like bullies they perceive as strong government over stability - they need to mature in their politics and get away from those who would seek to suppress them.