The Pound Slides

Joker1 · Post by **Joker1** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 5:28 am

We usually change £200 into TL for weekly shopping and did so yesterday at TL 3.75 to the pound. not long ago we were getting TL 4.75. I read yesterday that the value of the pound could fall below the $. Surely not!

David · Post by **David** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 6:47 am

Good news for those that wish to change back into ££££

Keithcaley · Post by **Keithcaley** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 7:09 am

They say that every cloud has a silver lining

Seriously, from a historical perspective, GBP is still relatively strong against TRY - the high rate quoted in post 1 was in September of last year, when the TRY was weak due to uncertainty about the Turkish Presidential Elections.

If you consider that the rate has been as low as 2.15 TRY to GBP (August 2008) , and that, currently, there seems to be no likelihood of any dramatic improvement in the immediate future, it might be a good time to 'stock up' on TRY - if the rate does go back up a little, you will have only forgone a small amount of Lira, and if it continues to fall, you will be better off...

Actually, this is called Gambling, and we're not supposed to do that on the Forum...

David · Post by **David** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 7:35 am

It was not too long ago that it remained steadyish at around 2.5/2,7, i suppose that was when the TL was strong.

Keithcaley · Post by **Keithcaley** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 7:54 am

David wrote:It was not too long ago that it remained steadyish at around 2.5/2,7, i suppose that was when the TL was strong.

I think that you're right - of course GBP, which had been valued at over 2 USD, just before that period, had dropped to just over 1.5 USD (it's now worth a little over 1.25 USD...).

The strange thing is that TRY was worth anything from 0.70 to 0.87 USD in that period, and is now worth only around 0.34 USD, which just goes to show the vagaries of the Currency markets.

I don't think that anyone can predict what will happen, or else they would be Millionaires...

...Oh, That's where those Millionaires got their money from...

scubadubaqueen · Post by **scubadubaqueen** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 9:36 am

I wonder if Mr Pound will be selling things at 4TL again sometime soon? Or is that just wishful thinking?

Of course the £ now dropping like a stone will hit many struggling local businesses in the pocket too, as the value of pensions and savings fall with it, and I doubt the prices will fall back down again in the shops or in the bars and restaurants to those of say 4 years ago when the £ was around 3 TL. Many prices are up 50% from that time.... Take your Sunday Lunch, your EFes, or even a can of Heinz Soup.

The TL is not linked to the dollar and that is why it is so volatile. It is not a strong currency so that does not say a lot for the current state of the £!

All this of course does not just affect people here. Lost confidence and spending power and bang goes the feel good factor, and bang go the sales in the shops in the UK too, and then bang go the jobs in shrinking Companies or at worst closing down, and up go the costs of benefits ..... And then everyone is worse off. Unless there is a U turn or a second referendum without all the lies, then there will be a lot more BREXITEERS regretting their decision very soon, for both themselves and their families. "Get over that". No sympathy for you, as you got what you wished, but will never get what you were sold by those who have now left the building..... A very short party indeed.

lee666 · Post by **lee666** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 9:52 am

scubadubaqueen wrote

All this of course does not just affect people here. Lost confidence and spending power and bang goes the feel good factor, and bang go the sales in the shops in the UK too, and then bang go the jobs in shrinking Companies or at worst closing down, and up go the costs of benefits ..... And then everyone is worse off. Unless there is a U turn or a second referendum without all the lies, then there will be a lot more BREXITEERS regretting their decision very soon, for both themselves and their families. "Get over that". No sympathy for you, as you got what you wished, but will never get what you were sold by those who have now left the building..... A very short party indeed.

Here we go again !!

Keithcaley · Post by **Keithcaley** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 9:55 am

scubadubaqueen wrote:...The TL is not linked to the dollar and that is why it is so volatile....

The Pound sterling isn't linked to the US Dollar either - not since 1971...

Do you remember those heady days when one pound was worth FOUR US Dollars?

...and we called the Half Crown (12.5 'New' Pence) 'Half a Dollar'

Keithcaley · Post by **Keithcaley** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 9:58 am

lee666 wrote:...Here we go again !!

Yeah!

Get back to your own thread, SDQ!

Johnny Lee · Post by **Johnny Lee** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 10:44 am

Great news , keep it sliding (just my personal view) purely selfish.

cambridge · Post by **cambridge** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 11:13 am

The statements of the Canadian Governor of the Bank of England are not helping. He may have the right measures in place but his overall demeanour and his negativity is not helping.

thickey · Post by **thickey** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 11:25 am

The Canadian Governor of the Bank of England should do what M. P
do and just lie

woodspeckie · Post by **woodspeckie** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 12:01 pm

lee666 wrote:
All this of course does not just affect people here. Lost confidence and spending power and bang goes the feel good factor, and bang go the sales in the shops in the UK too, and then bang go the jobs in shrinking Companies or at worst closing down, and up go the costs of benefits ..... And then everyone is worse off. Unless there is a U turn or a second referendum without all the lies, then there will be a lot more BREXITEERS regretting their decision very soon, for both themselves and their families. "Get over that". No sympathy for you, as you got what you wished, but will never get what you were sold by those who have now left the building..... A very short party indeed.
Here we go again !!

Scuba and Waz are like two parrots in one cage

madeincyprus · Post by **madeincyprus** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 12:17 pm

Let hope it dose not drop much. i think a lot of people will suffer. A friend of mine has already had their landloard ask for more rent as the £ is not getting him as much tl as it was. Sorry but if you want tl charge the damm rent in tl.

Dalartokat · Post by **Dalartokat** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 1:44 pm

Thought most landlords charged rent in Sterling and why would a landlord ask for more money midway, their fault for charging in TL, which can go up and down at any time and for any reason.

Mowgli597 · Post by **Mowgli597** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 1:51 pm

Joker1 wrote:We usually change £200 into TL for weekly shopping and did so yesterday at TL 3.75 to the pound. not long ago we were getting TL 4.75. I read yesterday that the value of the pound could fall below the $. Surely not!

Been thinking about that today. In real terms, to us (2 old people!!) that (TL200 "lost") is:

1 week's shopping in Supreme or
3 week's petrol or
1 month's electricity or
4 week's water (we're on a tanker) or
3 or 4 lunches out (for two) or
1 month's pool maintenance (corrected - thanks JBA!) or
about 5 days rent on our villa or
3 week's mobile phone costs or
2.5 month's internet cost or

Any additions?

JBA · Post by **JBA** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 2:52 pm

No additions but change your pool man now. 200 lira is 1 months pool maintenance.

waddo · Post by **waddo** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 3:51 pm

Mowgli, Can't add to your list for day to day running as it is all about dead right. But when you have to factor in the loss of all your list to the other things you have to afford such as medical, clothing, car maintenance and heaven forbid a holiday or having to return to UK for a death - the Brexit has been a kick in the teeth.

Can't complain really just yet, as the last year has allowed us to do some things we have never been able to afford before - 9 years and still not been to Famagusta, lol - but now its back to watching what we spend on everything and trying to figure out what we can do without once the full force of the dropping sterling hits us.

Would still rather be here than anywhere else and have no intention of going to a country that appears to only want to get rid of people and not help themselves. Anyway, the weather is rubbish 365/24/7 so why even think about it. Oh yes, I remember now, NHS & a free bus pass - never used them, never wanted them, can stand on our own two feet thank you!

tomsteel · Post by **tomsteel** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 9:22 pm

Support waddo's views here. Why, if you live in the TRNC, are you banging on about the UK currency variation?

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 9:40 pm

Sterling has collapsed as direct response to an evaporation of confidence in the currency and the UK economy. You cannot compare this to historical rates that have also at times been low.
The Collapse of sterling has been swift and brutal. I should not need to explain the cause. The results were forecast a month ago. I predicted a fall to below $1.35. Now I think possibly $1.25. Of course the exchange rate against tl is also being reflected. Inflationary pressure in the UK will hit very soon with almost everything becoming more expensive. less money in peoples pockets. Decline in spending power. Slow down in housing and construction. Essentially recession is very very possible.
Scaremongering. I am afraid not. A result of BREXIT. Absolutely certainly. It was always said there would be a cost. The question . How much?

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 10:48 pm

And why for heavens sake is it going to take over 2 months to elect a new leader ?

scubadubaqueen · Post by **scubadubaqueen** » Thu 07 Jul 2016 11:07 pm

turtle wrote:And why for heavens sake is it going to take over 2 months to elect a new leader ?

Because they have a summer recess, or maybe you don't know that either? Every year.... You know like a summer break! Or do you expect everyone to cancel their holidays too because of this complete and utter balls up?

butterfly · Post by **butterfly** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 6:21 am

Paid in TL, rent in sterling
Lump sum in TL since 2008 at 2.4

Start of...
Happy days.......

Mowgli597 · Post by **Mowgli597** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 6:24 am

tomsteel wrote:Support waddo's views here. Why, if you live in the TRNC, are you banging on about the UK currency variation?

Because in order to live in the TRNC as a retired pensioner the only income for a lot of people begins in Sterling and then has to be converted into TL.

I'd have thought that was obvious or am I missing something?

waddo · Post by **waddo** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 6:35 am

Mowgli, Quite correct. The UK currency variation has directly effected the TL exchange rate - so far that effect has been passed on to the people who receive their pensions in Sterling and then have to convert to TL. Current loss from drop in exchange rate for myself is over 1000TL per month and growing rapidly. Lump sum of less than £5K is in sterling in a UK account - this for emergency use anyway - and a further £2K in TRNC bank in TL, which was 9200TL before vote and is now 7580 - wonder how low it will go??

PoshinDevon · Post by **PoshinDevon** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 6:43 am

scubadubaqueen wrote:
turtle wrote:And why for heavens sake is it going to take over 2 months to elect a new leader ?
Because they have a summer recess, or maybe you don't know that either? Every year.... You know like a summer break! Or do you expect everyone to cancel their holidays too because of this complete and utter balls up?

Not sure that is correct. The MP's have a summer recess. However, the conservative MP's have voted and we now have the two preferred candidates going forward. It is now up to the tory party members In the country to decide who they want to lead the party and become the next PM.

Not sure it can be an online ballot, so I think the timescales are more to do with having to draw up the paperwork with the two preferred candidates names on them, send out to those party members and then allowing them time to decide and place their vote. Yes people do go on holiday at this time of the year but I would have thought a month would be enough time to get this matter resolved.

Never mind there is the Olympics to look forward to and hopefully keep us smiling.

David · Post by **David** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 7:35 am

What goes up generally comes down, didnt hear people moan when it moved above 4.5

turtle · Post by **turtle** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 7:45 am

scubadubaqueen wrote:
turtle wrote:And why for heavens sake is it going to take over 2 months to elect a new leader ?
Because they have a summer recess, or maybe you don't know that either? Every year.... You know like a summer break! Or do you expect everyone to cancel their holidays too because of this complete and utter balls up?

Yes i do know that or perhaps you dont know that there is a bit of a situation here that needs sorting ?
Perhaps your view is ahh its july lets all go on holiday and sod the country.

Yes i do expect them to cancel....i would have to cancel mine if there was a issue in my life?
Or perhaps you are another one who needs to visit the planet earth from time to time.

Becker · Post by **Becker** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 8:02 am

Exactly turtle! Well said.

Maisiemoo · Post by **Maisiemoo** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 9:29 am

I heard on Sky News yesterday that now the candidates have been whittled down to 2 they will now embark on hustings around the country which is another reason they will not hold an immediate election.

JBA · Post by **JBA** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 9:38 am

When I came here 11 years ago the exchange rate was around 2.8 - so the present rate, although down from its highs, is still well above my original expectations and well above any previous rate before last year's weakening of the tl.

Currently I change every £ I can find and stick it in the bank at 11% and just enjoy the bonus while I can. The tl isn't gaining strength (it's the £ losing strength) so the interest rates should remain quite high for now. If the rate ever goes right down again then I hope my savings will cover any shortfall from my pension.

PoshinDevon · Post by **PoshinDevon** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 9:52 am

turtle wrote:
scubadubaqueen wrote:
turtle wrote:And why for heavens sake is it going to take over 2 months to elect a new leader ?
Because they have a summer recess, or maybe you don't know that either? Every year.... You know like a summer break! Or do you expect everyone to cancel their holidays too because of this complete and utter balls up?

Yes i do know that or perhaps you dont know that there is a bit of a situation here that needs sorting ?
Perhaps your view is ahh its july lets all go on holiday and sod the country.

Yes i do expect them to cancel....i would have to cancel mine if there was a issue in my life?
Or perhaps you are another one who needs to visit the planet earth from time to time.

There is no need for MPs to cancel holidays....they have already voted and chosen two candidates for the next party leader and PM. The summer recess for parliament does not affect how long this process is taking.

Its now up to paid up members (Must have been a party member for at least 3 months) of the conservative party out in the constituencies to chose who they want as the next party leader and primeminister. So there needs to be time to get ballot papers out, for the two candidates to put forward their case for being party leader via tv, radio, newspaper interviews etc and then the ballot papers returned, counted, checked and verified.

However, whether it should take 2 more months is of course open to debate.

Johnny Lee · Post by **Johnny Lee** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 11:07 am

Hope the Tl drops back to around 2.75 and maybe we could see some deflation here.

judyvin · Post by **judyvin** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 11:44 am

JBA where do you get 11%?

JBA · Post by **JBA** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 12:53 pm

Creditwest - that is for a 12 month account and was negotiated prior to my switching over to them.

I spread the funds over 6 accounts (each 2 months apart) so that I get regular 2 monthly interest payments.

For 10 years I was with HSBC but 1 year ago they dropped their interest rates for Cyprus to 6.25% while still paying 9.5% in Turkey - that was totally unjust and infuriated me. I don't know if it is still the same.

waddo · Post by **waddo** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 1:57 pm

So if I spread my £2K over 6 accounts would I be able to get the same deal of 11% per account - lol? Probably not so I will just leave it where it is in Credit West getting a massive 7% over 12 months. Mind you, the 12% drop in sterling value has actually helped me as I put in £2K at 4.35 = 8700TL and at today's £ rate of 3.8 TL it is now worth £2289 - yipee!!!! The downside is I live here and only spend TL so it is still only worth 8700, booo! Keep smiling people there are a lot worse things that can happen.

David · Post by **David** » Fri 08 Jul 2016 9:35 pm

Think its around 3.75 now

David · Post by **David** » Mon 11 Jul 2016 5:36 pm

Back up again today

David · Post by **David** » Mon 11 Jul 2016 5:40 pm

And the FTSE hits an 11 month high,

topten · Post by **topten** » Tue 12 Jul 2016 11:50 am

David wrote:And the FTSE hits an 11 month high,

Thank you David for this I was just about to post the same, perhaps these remainers should get their heads out of their a###s and accept the fact we are out of the debt riddled European scroungers, and try and have positive thoughts and work towards making our Country free and Great again.

David · Post by **David** » Tue 12 Jul 2016 12:19 pm

Here Here !!!

jofra · Post by **jofra** » Tue 12 Jul 2016 6:37 pm

Where, where....?
I hear what you say......

waddo · Post by **waddo** » Tue 12 Jul 2016 6:53 pm

Well now they are inspiring thoughts from Topten! Obviously designed to make all us "Remainers" suddenly change our minds and go charging over the same cliff! Actually we are not yet out of debt riddled Europe yet and will not be for some time. I think that us "Remainers" will wait a while before we start commenting on how well the "Leavers" are doing with our 48% of the country and how well they are doing with there 52% of the country. It is very early days yet and I suspect the the rise of a whole 6 Kurus in the exchange rate is a simple reflection on the fact that the country will soon have a new leader and nothing else. We will wait and see what happens next.

waz-24-7 · Post by **waz-24-7** » Tue 12 Jul 2016 10:46 pm

Hardly Milk and Honey. The £ has crashed after BREXIT and the effects will take until Xmas to show.
Waddo is on the ball.
Some are just not able to read the road map.
There are clear signs of recession.
A new PM has created a market reaction.
The next months are critical , confidence and the UK economy has ben severely weakened in past days. A recovery plan is needed quickly. The sooner some political direction is secured the better. Rest assured our European competitors are out there right now marketing and selling their European market advantages.

David · Post by **David** » Wed 13 Jul 2016 6:18 am

O ye of little faith ! ..... lets wait and see but i think that you remainers might have to do some back peddling.

topten · Post by **topten** » Wed 13 Jul 2016 6:55 am

waz-24-7 wrote:Hardly Milk and Honey. The £ has crashed after BREXIT and the effects will take until Xmas to show.
Waddo is on the ball.
Some are just not able to read the road map.
There are clear signs of recession.
A new PM has created a market reaction.
The next months are critical , confidence and the UK economy has ben severely weakened in past days. A recovery plan is needed quickly. The sooner some political direction is secured the better. Rest assured our European competitors are out there right now marketing and selling their European market advantages.

All I am trying to say is, Brexit as happened accept it and try and make it work, what good your doom and gloom predictions are doing is "dummy out of the pram " reaction. Bet you if it had been the other way round it would be business as normal now.

Groucho · Post by **Groucho** » Thu 14 Jul 2016 6:06 am

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit ... 2016-07-12

I rest my case... unless and until a gloom merchant repeats the doom-laden prognosis...

David · Post by **David** » Thu 14 Jul 2016 6:18 am

Top post Groucho, so glad that Osbourne has gone after he threatened us with higher taxes and health service cuts if we dared to vote leave. Onwards and upwards from now on.

waddo · Post by **waddo** » Thu 14 Jul 2016 7:29 am

"Onwards and upwards from now on" - Well lets be fair, the only two things the "Leavers" can do to regain credibility with the "Remainers" is:

1. Work to get both sides back to where we were before they forced everyone to jump over the cliff.

2. Work even harder so that the finance the "Remainers" have lost is regained.

Only when they have repaired the damage that the "Leavers" have caused most of us to suffer for will the "Remainers" then put their shoulders to the wheel as well - would you expect more?

Until then, the repeated comments about how good things are getting and how much better they will be in the future are just smoke and mirrors with a strong flavor of guesswork and hope. The "Leavers" seem to have forgotten the old saying: There no such thing as a free lunch!
As an analogy:

terry2366 · Post by **terry2366** » Thu 14 Jul 2016 8:38 am

For my part if we sort out the courts and get rid of the HRA throw many of these stupid laws from the eu and get rid of people from elsewhere that have committed serious crimes here I think it's worth it. I do think as you say it will get back to where we were with the currency. Also maybe the next time if they do create their beloved eu army the next time they need boots on the ground the others can do it not us even though we are still in nato. I do believe that either the eu will change or it will fall apart.

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