Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

This is just an attempt to record of my observations of recent changes in Northern Cyprus since I bought a house here in 2007 and moved over permanently in 2010.
It is purely personal but might be a useful starter if others want to contribute.
I think they facts are correct. It may appear to be longwinded but, to be honest, there is a lot more I could have included – perhaps at a later date.

A lot of the changes have been influenced or financed by Turkey – either the Turkish government or Turkish consortiums.

Personally I approve of much of the investments that are clearly beneficial to the TRNC and the people who live here.
But some Turkish Cypriots appear not to be happy (perhaps unfairly) with the ever increasing dominance of the TRNC by Turkey.

After the 1974 Peace Operation that prevented Cyprus from being ethnically cleansed of Turkish Cypriots the north unilaterally declared its independence in 1983.
Although there was an influx of Turkish settlers between 1974 and 1983 it is thought that the indigenous Turkish Cypriots was about 85000 in 1983.
Immigration of Turkish nationals was encouraged and designed to bolster the Turkish population and to create a viable economy independent of Greek Cypriots.
The important point here is that Turkey has bankrolled the TRNC ever since so that now the TRNC is in debt to Turkey to the sum of more than $7 billion and the TRNC also has more than $1 billion of loans from banks.
The TRNC still get about $70 million per year from Turkey to run the public service/pay civil service salaries.

As one journalist put it:
“The TRNC’s budget cannot pay the instalments of its debt. Every year it borrows even more.
How is it that the TRNC, in spite of the fact that it is bankrupt, continues living as if nothing is happening? The answer is simple. Turkey pays. Turkey fully pays the resulting deficit which has caused bankruptcy and keeps the TRNC alive.
That is, it does not avoid any expense in order to maintain the economic status quo, which it was established in the northern part of Cyprus after 1974. And it is not only economically, it is also administratively and politically.
Turkey permits the Turkish Cypriots to act as a government in an area which it allows them, but acts based on the reality that they are its subordinate administration. This means, that both economic and political sovereignty in the northern part of Cyprus belongs to Turkey. In this sense, it takes a dim view of those who demand more sovereignty and ‘the right of self-administration’. It worries that the Cyprus problem may be solved and Turkish Cypriots may acquire equal sovereignty in the new state to be established.
It fears that the Turkish Cypriots may agree with the Greek Cypriots and abandon it.”

Some of the major projects that Turkey and Turkish consortiums have financed include:
The original development of Ercan airport and its current expansion.
The water pipeline that will have a major impact on the agricultural industry.
(It is now proposed that electricity will be brought by undersea cable)
The rapid increase in the construction of hotels and casinos for the tourist industry.
Heavy investement in Guzelyurt, both in terms of agriculture and universities.
Similar expansion of universities throughout the country.
Construction of Mosques and teaching centres like the large one near Ercan.
Major road construction projects (and soon a tunnel through the Besmarck mountain).

So how will events pan out in the near future?
A lot may depend on the current talks to resolve the Cyprus Problem. Mr Akinci has already indicated that he wants a solution this year to put to a referendum in early 2017. But reports on the progress of the talks, convergences and divergences are mixed and often contradictory.
In the referendum on the Annan Plan the Greek Cypriots rejected it but the Turkish Cypriots were in favour of a united Cyprus. The citizens of the TRNC may vote against any proposed agreement in 2017 since things have moved on significantly and living standards have improved since 2004. They may feel they are now more able to stand on their own feet and run their country independently rather than link up with a bankrupt ROC. And the demographics of those entitled to vote will have changed with a perhaps a new batch of young voters who would have been under 18 years in 2004.
In 2006 there were 132000 Turkish Cypriots, 70000 citizens of Turkish settler descent and 43000 Turkish Cypriots where one parent is Turkish. A majority in favour of the TCs.
In the 2011 census 286000 permanent residents were recorded suggesting 136000 TCs, 128000 citizens of Turkish settler descent and 21000 born in the UK and other places other than Turkey. An increase in Turkish settler descent proportion and, of course, it should remembered that many of these descendents from original settlers could be classed as “Cypriot” since they have never known or lived in Turkey.
How they will vote in a referendum is open to guesswork. Older TCs with long memories might vote NO because of their past history and that they still do not trust the GCs. Older Turkish settlers may vote NO because they are still “Turkish”. The younger generations may swing the vote, younger TCs because they are more European in outlook and younger descendents of Turkish settlers in order to get automatic EU citizenship with the benefits of freedom of travel and places to work.
143000 people (87%) voted in the 2004 referendum. Next time it will be more.

And now we also have the Erdogan factor. Many citizens who might have favoured closer ties to Turkey two years ago might now be more cautious and apprehensive due to Erdogan’s foreign policies and human rights abuses since the attempted coup. They may think it safer to link up with the EU.

Another contentious topic is the Economic Protocol that the TRNC were forced to agree to this year. It included points such as:
· The electricity authority will be divided in three organisations and distribution will be privatised in December 2017.
· Contributions to the social insurance and providence funds will increase.
· Business tax will increase.
· Turkey’s judiciary system will be implemented in the TRNC.
· Foreign investors (i.e. Turkish companies) in tourism will have easier access to public land.
· The operation of the ports will be transferred to the private sector.
· The infrastructure and the services in the telecommunications will be transferred to a public-private partnership.
· Agricultural subsidies will be abolished and the state planning organisation will be abolished.

· As one Turkish Cypriot commentator put it:
· “All of the above is basically an absolutely massive power grab by Turkey over north Cyprus!
Privatisation basically means private Turkish companies. Foreign investors basically means Turkish foreign direct investment.
Turkeys judiciary system is not better than the TRNCs. One thing that is actually pretty decent in Cyprus overall is that our judicial systems are predominantly based on the British system that provides a much better foundation for the evolution of a native judiciary. Ataturk originally adopted the Swiss Civil Code in Turkey's early days but it has been so heavily influenced now by one Mr Erdogan that it has lost any semblance of independence.
These changes are so far reaching that I strongly feel that these should be put to a referendum for the TRNC's citizens to decide rather than politicians with vested interests of appeasing the "motherland" at any cost to secure their future careers.
They are taking state debt and converting it into private debt and private power, which means the risks are transferred directly onto the people and no longer the state. Even the private sector in Turkey is not so private. Erdogan and his elite are involved in all things private and public in Turkey.
Soon the freedoms enjoyed in Cyprus, even small things such as commenting on this site will be lost.
Not biting the hand that feeds you isn't always the best strategy especially when they are trying to stuff something wholly unpalatable down your throat.”

Columnist Fatma Azgin wonders if Turkeys aim is to annex the TRNC to Turkey:
“We are passing through days in which the project of binding the TRNC to Turkey is continuously becoming more evident. In the water project, the electricity project and the content of the economic programme, the accession of these lands to Turkey, turning them into a province is becoming more evident.
The breaking point of Turkey’s domination, which has covered a pretty long distance to this end, has long since passed. The transfer of population which in years doubled the local population, the exploitation of this place’s resources afterwards, without giving anything in return, and the fact that the state and the people are always in debt in the end, clearly shows the route to bankruptcy.
Regardless of how many elections we may hold, of how many governments we will establish, our ‘independent and free’ will has suffered from erosion.
Finding a solution to the Cyprus problem in this environment is becoming difficult. It is evident that Turkey lacks the will [for a solution] and wants to implement its ‘own plan’. If this is ‘annexed’, don’t expect anything other than a few ‘protests’ to the UN or the EU.”

My conclusion? I haven’t got one because the situation is so fluid and “political”.
But Politics, especially in countries like Turkey is often a mixture of bribery, corruption, double crossing, etc. etc.
We don't really know what Mr Erdogan has in mind for Northern Cyprus. He has often pledged full support but as Messers Obama, Putin and Netanyahu know he can change his mind on policy matters. I think he would sacrifice the TRNC if it suited him. Does he really need 40000 troops here?

As a seventy year old expat I don’t have too many personal worries – I enjoy living in Cyprus and want to continue my two holidays in Turkey each year. But for the TCs and perhaps those descended from mainland Turks when they come to make decisions on a future direction they may find the choices far from easy.

Paul you wrote:

My conclusion? I haven’t got one because the situation is so fluid and “political”.
But Politics, especially in countries like Turkey is often a mixture of bribery, corruption, double crossing, etc. etc.
We don't really know what Mr Erdogan has in mind for Northern Cyprus. He has often pledged full support but as Messers Obama, Putin and Netanyahu know he can change his mind on policy matters. I think he would sacrifice the TRNC if it suited him. Does he really need 40000 troops here

What about the new hotel in Alagadi which apparently belongs to Erdogan? Why would he build a hotel in TRNC if he has plans to give it all up?

Well done Paul, a very thoughtful and comprehensive contribution (you should get out more)! There is no way Turkey is just going to walk away from all that has been put into Northern Cyprus over the years. Only a fool or a GC would believe that is anyway possible. He who pays the piper calls the tune! I imagine that plan B, C or D has always been that Turkey would unofficially (or otherwise) annexe the TRNC into Turkey. I believe that Alexander Downer let slip many years ago that everyone knows that the North is going to Turkey, and it's just a matter of going through the motions until that can happen.

This would not be acceptable to most Turkish Cypriots but given that a fair settlement with the South looks highly unlikely, what would be the alternative?

Russian annexation....!!!!!

I think it's a well put together piece except the bit about the judicial system which here is corrupt. All in all I see no solution as its in too many influential people's interest to stay as it is. I see the future as Erdogan closing down the rights of his people and making TRNC in to another Macau or tourist hub.

It was myself that requested you to write your concerns on the Turkification of TRNC in the other thread, but have found that 'Turkification', even with its negative connotation from yourself actually translates to "investments in TRNC".

Now, I appreciate you have your perspective as an expat, reading english news papers etc etc. But you have clearly missed the boat when it comes to modern Turkish politics, in fact global politics relating to Turkey and what the Turkish Coup really was when I see you write things like:

"And now we also have the Erdogan factor. Many citizens who might have favoured closer ties to Turkey two years ago might now be more cautious and apprehensive due to Erdogan’s foreign policies and human rights abuses since the attempted coup. They may think it safer to link up with the EU."


The majority of Turkish people in Turkey love Erodogan, they collectively risked their lives to save the government and him and while the west wants you to think that is through some kind of mind control and manipulation it is actually because he is an exceptional leader and has single handedly modernized every aspect of Turkey in the last 10 years. In the Western mind he is an Islamic dictator but this is simply propaganda and not true!

He has done such an efficient job that Turkey now stands on the World stage along side Russia and the USA and in spite of all the anti-Turkish propaganda are now fighting to keep Turkey on their side. Even in last nights football match with Russia vs Turkey the Russians had a Turkish flag on their tops, and they just signed a $100Bn deal with each other to take control of energy supplies in the region.

Turkey is the only reason why the TRNC even exists and without them would have been murdered by the GCs, everyone knows that, but their continued assistance is still the only reason why the TRNC exists today - as you have noted. Without Turkey propping up the economy and without Turkish army here there would be no economy and they would be in a situation where many years ago the Greeks would have taken over the whole Island again.

During the recent Turkish coup a GC politician actually said they missed their opportunity to take over the whole island, and not a single other politician condemned that.

Unfortunately some Turkish Cypriots suffer from Cyprusism, which is a disease where they hate everyone who isn't themselves, the GC suffer from the same thing but to a significantly higher degree. Naturally, they have come to look down upon the Turkish and Turkey as a result of this in spite of the fact they are only alive, exist, have a house an economy, family, friends and basically everything in their life has been handed to them by Turkey.

These Turkish Cypriots, either severely racist or mentally impaired, have come to favor a solution with the same people who tried to wipe them off the face of the earth a few years ago rather than the very people who saved them from certain death. What does that say about those particular people?

Fortunately, the brains in Turkey know all too well the fate the TRNC would suffer should Turkey leave them to their own devices, the propped up economy would collapse, government would fail, no one in the public sector would be paid - and they would be in more debt than they could ever afford. The south would have only to wait a single year before all and any of their demands would be met out of desperation. This is not saying TCs are incompetent but facing the facts of a global embargo.

But what of Turkey in that scenario, where they leave the TRNC to their "independence"? How many billions of dollars wasted to save their fellow Turk, how much face can one country possibly lose than to "invade" a country, occupy it for years and then leave them to die out anyway into poverty and the same fate they "saved" them from originally?

I am a Turkish Cypriot and I am educated, therefore I understand and appreciate Turkey for what they did and what they continue to do, to be more specific I appreciate Erdogan for his continued support and the fact he believes in the TRNC so much even his family is investing here.

If uneducated TCs and Expats living here have a problem with Erodogan and with Turkey then they are aligning themselves with the Greek Cypriots as far as I am concerned and they should move to the South Side as soon as possible where everyone holds similar views to them.

In short Turkey IS the TRNC and that is a fact.

Paul90
You cannot say in one breath the TCs cannot pay the debt and the other that they may vote no this time because they can stand on their own two feet. TCs clearly just over a year ago voted for Akinci who is a strong BBF supporter by 60%. How much has changed since April 2015 that can lead you to such conclusions. There is only one conclusion, TRNC cannot survive independently and given the choice of being part of Turkey or the RoC, they have clearly mandated Akinci to negotiate joining the RoC.

Disregarding all other points, I would just venture to suggest that "...The majority of Turkish people in Turkey love Erodogan, they collectively risked their lives to save the government and him..." is neither recommendation or condemnation, merely a demonstrated and recorded fact - throughout history, many populations have loved their leader/ruler/whatever, regardless of their merits or failings - consider Germany and Hitler, Italy and Mussolini, North Korea and Kim Jong-un (and his father). Whether it's politics or pop culture, persons can be "loved" by thousands - until their perception is altered -again, consider Jimmy Saville....

The problem is that not many people have an understanding of the Turkish Election System where there is a 10% dam system and any votes of a party which does not pass this percentage gets distributed to the first and the second parties. Surely if you are going to have a transferable vote you can give people choices of first second and third choice. So in effect the party which comes first gets most of the votes of all other parties. This looks like they have support but in reality they do not.

This is a system was put in place last time the army took control and has never been changed. I don't think there is another country which such a democratic system anywhere in the world.

Methinks thou art clutching at straws!

obviously. enjoy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral ... _of_Turkey

Turkey elects 550 Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly using the D'Hondt method, a party-list proportional representation system. In order to return MPs to parliament, a party needs to gain more than 10% of the vote nationwide, meaning that parties may win the most votes in certain areas but not win any MPs due to a low result overall. The parliamentary threshold of 10% has been subject to intense scrutiny by opposition members, since all votes cast for parties polling under 10% are spoilt and allow the parties overcoming the national threshold to win more seats than correspond to their share of votes. E.g. in the 2002 general election the AKP won 34.28% of the vote but won nearly two-thirds of the seats.

The parliamentary threshold does not apply to independents, meaning that Kurdish nationalist politicians who poll strongly in the south-east but are not able to win 10% of the overall vote stand as independents rather than as a party candidate. This was the case in the 2007 and 2011 general election, where the Kurdish Democratic Society Party and the Peace and Democracy Party fielded independent candidates respectively.

jofra wrote:Disregarding all other points, I would just venture to suggest that "...The majority of Turkish people in Turkey love Erodogan, they collectively risked their lives to save the government and him..." is neither recommendation or condemnation, merely a demonstrated and recorded fact - throughout history, many populations have loved their leader/ruler/whatever, regardless of their merits or failings - consider Germany and Hitler, Italy and Mussolini, North Korea and Kim Jong-un (and his father). Whether it's politics or pop culture, persons can be "loved" by thousands - until their perception is altered -again, consider Jimmy Saville....

You say - "Until their perception is altered- again"

But I already addressed this - "The west would have you believe it is some kind of mind control or manipulation"


People liked Jimmy Saville because they thought he was good, they didn't like him when they thought he was bad, ergo people like people when they think they're good. I can't imagine anyone would risk their life for Jimmy Saville?

Would you have risked your life for David Cameron? Would anyone in England go on the street to fight their own British Army to keep David Cameron's government in power?

In fact as far as I can remember every-time a population, in recent years, has an excuse to go against their government they take it. Even in Libya where Gaddafi was due to get a Nobel prize for his kindness to his people they still turned against him:-

"Before NATO and the U.S. started bombing Libya, the United Nations was preparing to bestow an award on Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, and the Libyan Jamahiriya, for its achievements in the area of human rights. That’s right–the same man, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, that NATO and the United States have been telling us for months is a “brutal dictator,” was set to be given an award for his human rights record in Libya. "

- https://libyanfreepress.wordpress.com/2 ... hts-award/

Please don't anyone tell me this isn't relevant, it is very relevant, this man made petrol free, education free, gave financial gifts when people got married and hundreds of other things.....his population STILL turned on him. But not in Turkey and not against Erdogan, it speaks for itself.

Agreed - at the particular time - that is what is relevant; nothing more, nothing less.
As to British Army on the British streets - apart from when they provided the "Green Goddess" fire engines during the firemen's strike (and of course Northern Ireland), the last occasion I can think of offhand is the Peterloo Massacre - I'm sure someone will provide a more recent case if there is one - the British army doesn't tend to be much used as in some other countries (including Europe...)
You should just add at the end of your post .... "yet."

I think the people came to the streets as they didnt want a miltary coup . The support for erdogan is seperate from this . I appreciate he facebooked them .but no one even the other political parties wanted a miltary coup .

Turkish people know exactly what the Army does when they come to power which explains why supporters of political parties came out into the streets to stop it. But they were wrong, Erdogan is far worse then the military. But of course in their defence they could not foresee what Erdoagn would do after the coup.

Lurucinali wrote:Turkish people know exactly what the Army does when they come to power which explains why supporters of political parties came out into the streets to stop it. But they were wrong, Erdogan is far worse then the military. But of course in their defence they could not foresee what Erdoagn would do after the coup.

If you think destroying Turkey is a better option than having Erdogan as the leader then you are an extremist. The Military murdered hundreds of civilians that night and you support them over the democratically elected leader? What kind of person are you?

Even the Kurdish political party stand by the side of the president against the murderous Gulenist military responsible but our very own home grown Kibris extremist calls for chaos in Turkey. TRNC is totally doomed if there are many people like you living here.

Very interesting point you make there . Who is the democratically elected leader? Democracies all have a maximum term one individual can be inpower to avoid authoratarianism . Erdogan had reached that limit . He was elected as president by 52 % oft He vote and it wasnt a massive turn out . The people voted for him not as a leader but as the ceremonial position of president who by the constitution should have no political allegance . The previous election the akp party did not get enough votes to form a goverment . This was seen by many as a vote against erdogans unconstitutional power grab . They only received enough votes after a crack down on the kurds promising a more stable turkey . ...whats happened since then ......how can it be a democracy when one man is controlling everything when he has only been elected in a ceremonial position ?

wondering1 wrote:

Lurucinali wrote:Turkish people know exactly what the Army does when they come to power which explains why supporters of political parties came out into the streets to stop it. But they were wrong, Erdogan is far worse then the military. But of course in their defence they could not foresee what Erdoagn would do after the coup.

If you think destroying Turkey is a better option than having Erdogan as the leader then you are an extremist. The Military murdered hundreds of civilians that night and you support them over the democratically elected leader? What kind of person are you?

Even the Kurdish political party stand by the side of the president against the murderous Gulenist military responsible but our very own home grown Kibris extremist calls for chaos in Turkey. TRNC is totally doomed if there are many people like you living here.

you do not really understand what has been going on in for the last year or so when Erdogan decided to stop talking to the Kurds and sent in the tanks into the cities and towns of the south east.

So far 3000 judges and prosecutors have been fired from their jobs.
Thousands of teachers thrown out of their jobs
Hundreds of reporters locked up and news media closed down
35,000 people locked up
over 70,000 people thrown out of work.
Unfortunately I do not have a figure of how many people have been killed in the last 12 months as news is very hard to come by but when Erdogan detains Human Rights workers, you know you are on the wrong side.
Not to mention an human rights lawyer shot in cold blood in the street in front of everybody

Perhaps this will enlighten you a little, just a little mind you.

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2016/c ... ers/turkey

Reyntj wrote:Very interesting point you make there . Who is the democratically elected leader? Democracies all have a maximum term one individual can be inpower to avoid authoratarianism . Erdogan had reached that limit . He was elected as president by 52 % oft He vote and it wasnt a massive turn out . The people voted for him not as a leader but as the ceremonial position of president who by the constitution should have no political allegance . The previous election the akp party did not get enough votes to form a goverment . This was seen by many as a vote against erdogans unconstitutional power grab . They only received enough votes after a crack down on the kurds promising a more stable turkey . ...whats happened since then ......how can it be a democracy when one man is controlling everything when he has only been elected in a ceremonial position ?

It took self-control not to give a sarcastic response to this post. Erdogan is the democratically elected president of Turkey.

Lurucinali wrote:

wondering1 wrote:

Lurucinali wrote:Turkish people know exactly what the Army does when they come to power which explains why supporters of political parties came out into the streets to stop it. But they were wrong, Erdogan is far worse then the military. But of course in their defence they could not foresee what Erdoagn would do after the coup.

If you think destroying Turkey is a better option than having Erdogan as the leader then you are an extremist. The Military murdered hundreds of civilians that night and you support them over the democratically elected leader? What kind of person are you?

Even the Kurdish political party stand by the side of the president against the murderous Gulenist military responsible but our very own home grown Kibris extremist calls for chaos in Turkey. TRNC is totally doomed if there are many people like you living here.

you do not really understand what has been going on in for the last year or so when Erdogan decided to stop talking to the Kurds and sent in the tanks into the cities and towns of the south east.

So far 3000 judges and prosecutors have been fired from their jobs.
Thousands of teachers thrown out of their jobs
Hundreds of reporters locked up and news media closed down
35,000 people locked up
over 70,000 people thrown out of work.
Unfortunately I do not have a figure of how many people have been killed in the last 12 months as news is very hard to come by but when Erdogan detains Human Rights workers, you know you are on the wrong side.
Not to mention an human rights lawyer shot in cold blood in the street in front of everybody

Perhaps this will enlighten you a little, just a little mind you.

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2016/c ... ers/turkey

Thank god these terrorists have been removed from their positions of power now, Ergodan remains unaffected by Western Propaganda to do what is necessary for the security of Turkey. These people represent a Gulen sponsored secondary system within Turkey whose sole purpose over years has been to depose the Government.

However please let me reiterate, as you have stated you supported the military take over of Turkey against Erdogan in your earlier post.

I hope you realize what this actually means for you - if you are on the side of the terrorists who tried to disrupt Turkey's economy, disrupt the tourist industry, disrupt the overall stability of the Country, if you are on side of Terrorists who used tanks and helicopters against government buildings and to murder civilians then you are what is called a terrorist sympathizer.

In Turkey if you publicly write in favor of terrorists in order to influence the population against the State of Turkey do you know how seriously the government and population takes that? Would you state support for ISIS on an British forum shortly after an Isis attack in the UK?

Now, I have noticed that you change the subject and dodge any question you realize cannot be answered, so I invite you to answer that specifically. Would you would you state support for ISIS on an British forum shortly after an Isis attack in the UK? If not why do you consider it acceptable to do it for Turkey's terrorists even with your supposed Turkish heritage?

Yes and the president of turkey by the constitution is not the democratically elected leader that is exactly my point . The president has limited power and i repeat should have no political allegance it is a ceremonial position . the democratic elected leader is the prime minister of the akp party . Who has recently been replaced as the last one decided to resign. If the new constitution is brought in a refendum moving to a presidential system then your claims will be correct . But that has not transpired yet . I am just stating the facts there is no need for sarcastic remarks .

I agree with you about the terrorist bit though . No one wanted military coup and people should be more careful of making remarks siding with the terrorists . Id suggest these comments should be taken back and rethinked .

Come on guys – can we cool it down a little please?
The thread has only been up a day. I am not saying it has been hijacked but it has gone off on a tangent somewhat.
It was never about President Erdogan so can we put him aside on this thread (perhaps you might start a new one for him) and concentrate on what the TRNC citizens want.

Northern Cyprus is entering a crucial stage in its short history and next year may see decisions being taken that will determine its direction for the long term.

I would like to read more input from other forum members, especially if they are of Cypriot or Turkish origin, as well as expats.
The more views we have the wider the spectrum and perhaps the bigger the picture.

Just a thought, thanks.

Since when have I not answered any questions. I would never support ISIS under any circumstances what so ever. But that does not mean that I am happy about what the west has been doing in the middle east going back to the overthrow of an elected government and putting the Shah in charge of Persia so they can take the oil from the Persians on the cheap.

Quite right paul . Im expat but my wife is turkish origin and has tc citizenship. Im not very hopeful of solution as turkey have invested heavily in trnc and i cant see them giving it up without something big in return . I believe the likely bargaining chip would be eu membership . Why would they allow trnc to join eu whats in it for turkey ? Things are going to become clear in the mext 6 months . Are they either going through the motions to annex or soon they are going to request something in return . Back in 2004 turkey allowed itbto get through to the referendum stage and it was it rebuked by the gcs . Did turkey allow it to get this point knowing that the tcs would vote no ? its more likely given turkeys ottoman ambitions that it would want to gain territory than give up a foothold . The mosques roads schools pipelines have not been built to handover to the eu for nothing.

Reyntj wrote:Quite right paul . Im expat but my wife is turkish origin and has tc citizenship. Im not very hopeful of solution as turkey have invested heavily in trnc and i cant see them giving it up without something big in return . I believe the likely bargaining chip would be eu membership . Why would they allow trnc to join eu whats in it for turkey ? Things are going to become clear in the mext 6 months . Are they either going through the motions to annex or soon they are going to request something in return . Back in 2004 turkey allowed itbto get through to the referendum stage and it was it rebuked by the gcs . Did turkey allow it to get this point knowing that the tcs would vote no ? its more likely given turkeys ottoman ambitions that it would want to gain territory than give up a foothold . The mosques roads schools pipelines have not been built to handover to the eu for nothing.

You asked the right question Paul but you got the answer wrong. TCs fate has nothing to do with Turkey joining the EU. Turkey has to fulfil her obligations and then she will join. I know that there are some countries that would like to have a referendum about it but how may other countries that joined the EU followed a had a referendum by other members before being able to join. Thats not how the EU works. There is a contract and once it is fulfilled then in she will go. I grant you that before 2015 Turkey was about 15 years away from being able to join but now with the meyhem that Erdogan has caused I suspect it has been pushed back by 50 years.

The question is whats in it for Turkey?
1. The gas will flow via Turkey to the EU and water will flow to the South.
2. Turkey will have a base in Cyprus under 1960 agreement just like UK and that will continue. I cannot see that being removed without the agreement of Turkey. For a contract to be voided all parties have to agree. Especially International contracts.
3. Turkey will not have to support TCs financially any more.

Also consider

4. Once TCs vote to join the RoC Turkey has not got a leg to stand on legally in trying to stop it.
5. There was time when Cyprus was run by the Turkish Ambassador in Nicosia. Akinci has changed all that. He does what he feels is right for the TCs. And that's the way it should always have been.


.

Denizismail - Thank you for your comment (message 2).
Yes, I know about the Elexus and have eaten there twice.
I don’t think the Erdogan family will be worried about their investment.
If Mr Akinci ever gets to a position of a possible agreement with Mr Anastasiades then I am sure that it will only be put to a referendum if it is fully approved in Turkey.
e.g. That a Yes vote for a new Federal Cyprus is to the benefit of Turkey and its investments. If a No vote then the current situation continues or stronger links to Turkey are formed.

Unfortunately it seems that no-one else is going to contribute.
So, probably, my final input - just thanking Frontalman for message 3.

In a way I don’t disagree with what you say Mark.
However it could be argued that another possible scenario is starting to emerge as a result of recent events within Turkey.
For the last twelve months all major world leaders have stressed the need for a settlement and Mr Erdogan has met with them and discussed the Cyprus Problem.
Mr Erdogan and his prime minister have confirmed that they fully support the talks and hope the talks will lead to a solution to the problem. However Mr Erdogan never finishes his sentence with the words “but on my terms only”.
Mr Erdogan is going through a difficult period with foreign policies etc.
Before July he had been fighting for five years to overthrow Assad, he shot down one of Russia’s warplanes, he broke off relations with Israel over the Marmara incident, he has been at odds with Merkel and the EU over EU accession and visa liberalisation/migrant control. And there have been difficulties with Egypt and ROC over gas resources around the coast.
Then a week before the attempted coup he apologies to Putin and restores relationships with Israel (and, I think Egypt). Now, after the coup he has switched sides in Syria and is helping the US/Russia led coalition fight with Assda in trying to destroy ISIS.
But problems with the USA over Mr Gulen still exist, as do with the EU over visa liberalisation and possible accession talks.
Mr Erdogan is a tough negotiator/survivor but still trying to win support and friends in his quest to be remembered as a world class statesman and leader who changes the face of modern Turkey for the future.
A deal on Cyprus could be his olive branch to Brussels and Washington, a diplomatic win – also regarding relations with Greece and ROC.
Unblocking of frozen EU chapters by the ROC, Gas pipelines from the eastern med to Greece and Europe, no further need to bankroll the TRNC.
If he and Akinci can formulate the basis of an agreement to put to Mr Anastasaides then it has to include withdrawal of Turkish troops (gradually) whilst still maintaining some degree of guarantee and territorial adjustments (offer to trade returning Varosha for keeping Guzelyurt).
Mr Erdogan could draft an agreement, on his terms, that protects all that Turkey has done and all that Turkish businesses have invested in.
If he and Mr Akinci ask the citizens for a Yes vote they will get it. If the GCs vote No then Turkey can blame the ROC again.

If the GCs vote No, or there is no agreement and referendum, then Mr Erdogan could organise a local referendum here (as Putin did in Ukraine/Crimea) asking if the citizens wish to become part of Turkey, i.e. annexation by another name.

There has been an announcement by Cypriot Foreign Minister saying that there is 95-98% agreement so far and there is quite a few meetings to go. In fact it was agreed to hold an extra meeting before the 14th of September. That is a good omen, add to that Akinci is going to consult with Turkey before they go to UN and I am reasonably confident the agreement is in the bag.

Going back to 2004 the GC waverers were lied to by being told that once the RoC is in the Eu they will negotiate a better deal and they fell for it. Well they are unlikely to fall for the same trick twice.

http://www.thecypriotpuzzle.org/cyprus- ... cent-done/

So what happens if on the 14th the Greek side do not agree to anything and stick to their original plan of having everything, the UN at that stage, being totally fed up with the lies the Greek side have perpetrated for the past X years say "Enough" - we are lifting the embargoes! Now what?

waddo wrote:So what happens if on the 14th the Greek side do not agree to anything and stick to their original plan of having everything, the UN at that stage, being totally fed up with the lies the Greek side have perpetrated for the past X years say "Enough" - we are lifting the embargoes! Now what?

If only, I am afraid Anstasiades is no Papadopoullos, he actually agreed with the Annan plan. I have heard him with my own ears say that we cannot expect for everyone to be able to go back to their homes. The fanatic GCs were shocked that the President had said such a thing. He is a reasonable man and so is Akinci. They understand each other's fears and will compromise to make the plan acceptable to both communities. Remember that in 2004 people were conned to vote no becasue they were told once in the EU they would be able to negotiate a better deal. There are no excuses left, both DISY and Akel will support the plan and they have80% of the vote. Even if some of their people vote against the plan, the big percentage will carry it through.

No matter how you look at it there is a very serious risk this agreement will be agreed and both sides will vote yes.

Anastasiades said that there would be no army on the island, however other security forces would be needed, such as a federal police, gendarmerie, a coast guard and an anti-terrorism force to secure Cyprus’ borders.

Turkey could be an ally of a reunited Cyprus, however, the island will have its own security forces but no army, President Nicos Anastasiades has said.

"COULD" be an Ally. Is that supposed to be a Joke? Turkey is a founding Guarantor of the island, and if that should change then Good Bye the Turkish Cypriots under an EU WITHOUT Turkey being a Full member. I hope our Turkish Cypriot delegation know exactly what they are doing , we are making a GRAVE mistake.

DenizIsmail wrote:Anastasiades said that there would be no army on the island, however other security forces would be needed, such as a federal police, gendarmerie, a coast guard and an anti-terrorism force to secure Cyprus’ borders.

Turkey could be an ally of a reunited Cyprus, however, the island will have its own security forces but no army, President Nicos Anastasiades has said.

"COULD" be an Ally. Is that supposed to be a Joke? Turkey is a founding Guarantor of the island, and if that should change then Good Bye the Turkish Cypriots under an EU WITHOUT Turkey being a Full member. I hope our Turkish Cypriot delegation know exactly what they are doing , we are making a GRAVE mistake.

Deniz you are making connections where there is none. There will be no Army. It is not the case that there will be no guarantee, they will work out an acceptable to both sides. If we have an agreement the UN will gurantee the set up, but if it fails there will be a last resort where Nato can take action and it will not exclude Turkey taking action. Leave the negotiations to those who have cooked in it like you cook molohia. That is why we select leaders to negotiate for our interests. Turkey will be an ally becasue the only economic way to market the gas is via Turkey. You are taking something he said to the GC population which is the size of a mole hill and making a mountain out of it.

If there is no army in Cyprus how will it be goodbye to TCs. Of course we shall have equal number of policemen and equal number that are armed. We will also have a coastguard but having a national guard is a joke. Who can Cyprus defend herself agains today. Which country can they repel if attacked. None. There is no point having an army which cannot protec us. We shall put our trust in the UN like the rest of the world and the rule of law and if that fails Nato. What else do you need?

Akinci deliberately slected Nami as the negotiator becasue he knows exactly what he is doing and in any case nothing happens there without eventually being approved by Turkey. Just calm down and take a deep breath, smell the the scent of peace and what it will do to the island. It will be heaven once again.

The united nations will never intervene they are 'just observers, if conflict breaks out they will just step aside and watch genocide occur I grew up with them in our village what were they doing in 1974 when whole Turkish villages were undergoing Genocide, they were observing and reporting back to the united nation. What happened in Bosnia, Rwanda and what is happening in Syria at the moment what is the United Nations doing.
I agree war is not the answer, there has to be a political settlement and eventually there will be one, when though I do not know. The Greeks want peace but what they mean by that is what it was like pre 1974, where they have the majority vote and could do what they wanted. The only way I see long term peace occurring in Cyprus is to have to separate states and the closest is the Anand plan there is too much bitterness and not enough trust between the two communities.

Cyprus has enjoyed peace since 1974 there has been no armed conflict in Cyprus since then the only thing that is not allowing it to evolve is the economic embargos, once these are removed then it can move forward.

The situation in Cyprus is like a bitter divorce where both parties are stubborn and have come to a place where neither one will give in, what both parties don't understand is that they have to move on and its a give and take situation some things you win some things you loose its a compromise. The only person I came across in my life who realised this and moved forwards was Nelson Mandela he saw the bigger picture and knew it was pointless to dwell on the past as it was dead and gone and he moved forwards and he got the respect of the majority of South Africans black and white, he didn't please everybody black or white but he did what was best for the majority in a democratic way and what was best for people. You cannot please everybody no matter what you do.

I believe in peace but mankind is evil, greedy and majority of people that get in power cannot give it up. So we need Turkey to keep the peace and protect the Turkish Cypriots the United Nations is not going to do it, the Greek Cypriots are not going to protect us, if Turkey was not around they would of got rid of us totally. This is nothing new its been going on for thousands of years its just people have forgotten about it or do not know about it.

Having carefully read through this whole thread (Every single word) it has left me completely bewildered and with a raging headache. I am neither Turkish, Turkish Cypriot, Cypriot Cypriot, Greek Cypriot or any other Cypriot. I am just a humble expat who is not even qualified to stick his 'oar in.' I am simply someone who abhors politics and politicians with a vengeance, with one exception. Currently in the news is the way Rodrigo Duterte (The newly elected president of the Philippines) is dealing with drug dealers and users, a man after my own heart (Just my own opinion) Let's face it, politics and politicians stink, why? Well the statement I quote below describes it quite well, if missing just a few of our human failings. And, it took the very last paragraph of this thread for me to realise that all the previous arguments, counter arguments, jibes, digs or whatever one likes to call them are meaningless and stand for nothing!

I believe in peace but mankind is evil, greedy and majority of people that get in power cannot give it up. So we need Turkey to keep the peace and protect the Turkish Cypriots the United Nations is not going to do it, the Greek Cypriots are not going to protect us, if Turkey was not around they would of got rid of us totally. This is nothing new its been going on for thousands of years its just people have forgotten about it or do not know about it.

Yes, some people have short memories and some like me even shorter (It's an age thing) but grievances last not only a lifetime but countless generations and far beyond. And quite rightly so, as the atrocities committed by both sides can never be forgiven, nor should they be. But there has to come a time when enough is enough and things have to evolve (You notice I used the word evolve and not change) Sadly meaningful change has long passed.

So what have I to add to this thread that people may just consider relevant? Simply this:

Take a good look at the countries virtually on the doorstep of Cyprus where atrocities are being committed on a daily basis, three-hundred and sixty-five days a year and where human rights are being violated, again on a daily basis. But the likes of so called ISIS, drug dealers, peadophiles and such like do not deserve human rights. Why is it that all the troubles throughout and around Asia continue with no end in sight? Simply put, wars create wealth!

Back on track:

I foresee no reunification of Cyprus in my lifetime and probably never. Talk is cheap and Turkey will never throw away all it's invested so far keeping TRNC 'solvent.' Besides, the Greeks cannot afford to 'buy' Cyprus. Nor will Turkey gain entry to the European Union and by the time it is given consideration, there may not even be a European Union (Or as they say in Star Trek: 'not as we know it') Right now, there are at least four European members considering referendums on whether to remain or stay. Watch this space!

I have gone out of the way not to directly point fingers at countries, their Governments or institutions but all one has to do is point their browsers to Google and it is all there in black and white!

President Mustafa Akinci, speaking after Wednesday’s intensive session in the Cyprus negotiations has said that “Turkish Cypriots feel safe with Turkey and do not envisage a system of guarantees without the participation of Turkey.”

Deniz you clearly have no real understanding what the Cyprus Problem was all about if you think it was GCs and TCs were unable to live together. History shows that they did for hundreds of years before hand. So clearly something changed after WW2 to cause caos not just in Cyprus but all over the world. As to forseeing unification of Cyprus I would ask you to look at your crystall ball more carefully. We have never had a better chance to unify then now. It is true however that if these two politicians cannot do it, nobody else is likely to and in any case the chance will be gone.

Secondly Akinci is no soft touch. Clearly the Guarantees cannot remain as they were but also they cannot be just removed, so a compromise will be reached. Nobody said it was easy, it has taken 53 years and we are still trying to solve it. Perhaps this time they will only Guarantee the TC Federal State. It really has to be a compromise between the two communities.

Here is a doc with people who have lost relatives working together despite their loss. The irony of all this is those who have losses are more keen on peace and reconciliations than those who have lost none.

In Kibrisli today:

Former Turkish Cypriot negotiator Ergun Olgun, referring to the recent statement made by President Akinci on guarantees and security, has argued that it is the Turkish Cypriot side that faces the greatest security risks.

He said that preservation of bi-zonal arrangement in Cyprus is essential. This should be a fundamental criterion when solving the property issue.

Olgun also noted that he disagreed with Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Andreas Kasoulides’ assertion that “a solution to the Cyprus problem is 95 to 98% done.”

He said that if there was a 98% agreement, then this work would have finished today. Kasoulides’ statement, Ergun said, does not reflect reality.

Unfortunately for Mr Olgun he is no longer at the negotiating table. Of course he is entitled to his opinions as is everybody else. He is in no position to know the level of agreement where as the Minister in GC government is.

The bi-zonal agreement has already been accepted and signed for several times in the past and it is details that are being thrashed out, so what his fears are I am not so certain.

As to when the negotiations will finish he is even more in the dark, the last 5 to 2 percent agreement may be the most difficult which is why it has been left to the end. Till all this is discussed at the UN end of September at the UN and the negotiations continue into October to finish his idea that the agreement for the last 5% or so could be finished today just goes to show how much he is out of his depth.