Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

If you had all your money in TL would you consider changing some of it now irrespective of the loss you will make?

Alternatively would you hang onto it with a view of it 'might' level out once again at a reasonable exchange rate?

How long before the rate will be 5TL to £1?

Spending it....and saving my sterling...

Maybe once the Brexit move is finalised the Pound should go up in value? The Lira is devaluing again by the look of things so 5tl to the Pound is on the cards? I had to bite the bullet early last year and bought back Sterling, big loss for me. If I had waited 6 months I would have got a much better rate but It's done now. No one can decide for you.

You could change half of it - that way you are guaranteed to lose money, but whether the Pound goes up or down, and whether the Lira goes up or down, you'll only lose half the amount

Going to tough it out Turkey has had a bad time recently now the constitutional changes have been approved and hopefully passed in the referendum things may start to get better, can afford to wait a couple more years and hope that the economy gets better

In my opinion the UK is going to start raising rates sooner than the BOE expected so sterling will strengthen. Moreover Turkey is not going to reform in the short term.

Don't lose sight of the fact that TLR may not be the currency on the island within the next 3 years.

Maybe time to spend all my TL then, buying property here...so when TL is not the currency any longer (and pigs might fly), I will have an asset regardless of what currency.....just a thought.

mrsgee wrote:Maybe time to spend all my TL then, buying property here...so when TL is not the currency any longer (and pigs might fly), I will have an asset regardless of what currency.....just a thought.

Money is being printed by central banks like it's going out of fashion - swapping fiat money for tangible assets is a wise move.

I can feel a few visits to Altinbas Jewellers coming up. I realise that All that Glitters is not gold, but it feels a bit better than the flimsy bits of 5tl being bandied about in the shops.

Mrs G said about buying property, but this has to be paid for in Sterling - or am I wrong???

Hmmmm, maybe buy in Turkey then....or as Sophie says, a trip to the jewellers, but again, in Turkey, the gold is cheaper there.....

mrsgee wrote:Hmmmm, maybe buy in Turkey then....or as Sophie says, a trip to the jewellers, but again, in Turkey, the gold is cheaper there.....

Dont think property sales in Turkey are priced in TL either, more likely to be sterling, euro or dollars.

Bearing in mind those who banked as far back when 2.20 tl was to the pound.
Taking into consideration all of the interest over the years gained by high interest received.
Could this be viewed as a skin of the teeth swings and round about situation as long as monies are withdrawn now.
Or am I looking at this foolishly ?

I would estimate that £100k invested 10yrs ago at 2.20 at a rate of say 12% would be worth somewhere in the region of 525k TL and at today's rate would be worth about £112K.
However interest rates has dropped over the years and some people got more than 12% some years ago so it would be hard to put a figure on it.

If you invested say £50k at 10yrs ago at a similar rate you may just break even at todays rate.
I suppose it all depends on if you used the interest for income in which case you're stuffed. ?

I'm sure someone will put me right if I got it wrong

Ipman, we have Turkish friends, and we visit Turkey regularly, and find that properties are priced, often, in TL, why would they not be?.Maybe the answer is to have a Turkish friend....they certainly don't pay in anything but TL. And Turtle, personally, I think you are absolutely correct, you need to look at the whole picture....ok interest rates have fallen, but they are still brilliant compared to the pathetic rates on sterling. Honestly, in the UK I think people will pretty soon be paying the banks to hold, and use, their cash. As I said very early on in the thread (and have to say you can't have it all ways, given that the exchange rate on sterling is high again, but not as high as it was last year...), one way, maybe, is to live off the interest from Turkish Lira accounts, and leave say, pension income in Sterling.....its maybe a different way of converting your perceived losses......or maybe, I am completely wrong.....

Used to get 19% when first banked here mind you the rate was around 2.4, if i had a spare £100 would be tempted to put it into tl and sit on it am sure the economy will improve given time but might fall a bit more first.

The 'Currency Game' in TRNC has three simple rules: -

BUY Lira when it is WEAK (you get more Lira for your Pound)

SELL Lira when it is STRONG (you get more Pounds for your Lira)

Don't Panic!

See what happens after this meeting takes place today.......................http://www.nasdaq.com/article/turkeys-l ... 0124-00108


Update from this mornings meeting.................

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-l ... 24-meeting


http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/ ... ano2017-04

£1 = 4.80TL now.
Any takers for £1 = 5TL?

I believe that Turkey will move into a period of stability after the turmoil of 1016. Mr Erdogan has established himself securely and stamped a level of authority no enjoyed by his administration in previous years. The Economy has good foundation but has been undermined by the decline of tourism, terrorist attacks, Syrian and other regional problem, and internal territorial independence struggles.
The Syrian problem appears to have the beginnings of a settlement. Regional issues such as ISIS are being slowly dealt with.
These slow improvements will allow a level of confidence to return to turkey as the strongest economy in the region and a consequential strengthening of the currency would be expected. 2017 should see some improvements. The influence of Mr Trump in the region is still to be determined but simple rule is peace and confidence promotes prosperity and a strong demand for currency.

Well said Waz
If the referendum goes Erdogans way then that will bring some much needed stability which is what outside investors need i think that turkey has the ability to become very strong economically in the future but this may take another couple of years, dont forget the burden of taking in 3million refugees and the attempted coup and of course all of the other things that it has had to deal with so not suprising that overseas investors have had no confidence fled and the currency has weakened but hopefully things will start to improve soon.

5 tl when fitch downgrades in the next few days followed by bank crisis

4.88 tl today 5 tl tommorrow . The 5 tl pound shop will be vindicated

Reyntj wrote:4.88 tl today 5 tl tommorrow . The 5 tl pound shop will be vindicated

You're behind the times - they put it up to 6TL ages ago, at this rate they will soon be charging 7TL !!

The TL decline has been on the cards now for a few years.We went to Istanbul 2 years ago and intended paying for our visa when we got to Istanbul. When we got there the visa people would not except TL for the visa, we had to pay in USD, Euro or Sterling. It speaks volumes when their own country wont accept their own currency

The PM has given assurances that the Turkish economy will improve in the second half of the year

Bob 4, we have visited Turkey many many times over the past 35 years......the visa was always payable in Sterling or Dollars....It used to be a £10 note required in your passport.....

waz-24-7 wrote:I believe that Turkey will move into a period of stability after the turmoil of 1016. Mr Erdogan has established himself securely and stamped a level of authority no enjoyed by his administration in previous years. The Economy has good foundation but has been undermined by the decline of tourism, terrorist attacks, Syrian and other regional problem, and internal territorial independence struggles.
The Syrian problem appears to have the beginnings of a settlement. Regional issues such as ISIS are being slowly dealt with.
These slow improvements will allow a level of confidence to return to turkey as the strongest economy in the region and a consequential strengthening of the currency would be expected. 2017 should see some improvements. The influence of Mr Trump in the region is still to be determined but simple rule is peace and confidence promotes prosperity and a strong demand for currency.

Giving valuable financial insight is fairly easy on this site. Just read what waz says and do the opposite! Strange that someone that - laughably - talks down the booming UK economy talks up a basket case.

The terror premium was factored in by the markets over a year ago. Current weakness is purely down to Erodogan..............he will not let the central bank do what it needs to do to deal with the mess. If it continues Turkey will simply run out of money which will mean printing more (hyperinflation) or impose capital controls. At the moment the fear is that he will assume control of the economy (by swapping the current bankers for his own puppets) so money is pouring out of the country.

David wrote:The PM has given assurances that the Turkish economy will improve in the second half of the year

Is that a Pig I see flying overhead?

Hedge-fund wrote:

waz-24-7 wrote:I believe that Turkey will move into a period of stability after the turmoil of 1016. Mr Erdogan has established himself securely and stamped a level of authority no enjoyed by his administration in previous years. The Economy has good foundation but has been undermined by the decline of tourism, terrorist attacks, Syrian and other regional problem, and internal territorial independence struggles.
The Syrian problem appears to have the beginnings of a settlement. Regional issues such as ISIS are being slowly dealt with.
These slow improvements will allow a level of confidence to return to turkey as the strongest economy in the region and a consequential strengthening of the currency would be expected. 2017 should see some improvements. The influence of Mr Trump in the region is still to be determined but simple rule is peace and confidence promotes prosperity and a strong demand for currency.

Giving valuable financial insight is fairly easy on this site. Just read what waz says and do the opposite! Strange that someone that - laughably - talks down the booming UK economy talks up a basket case.

The terror premium was factored in by the markets over a year ago. Current weakness is purely down to Erodogan..............he will not let the central bank do what it needs to do to deal with the mess. If it continues Turkey will simply run out of money which will mean printing more (hyperinflation) or impose capital controls. At the moment the fear is that he will assume control of the economy (by swapping the current bankers for his own puppets) so money is pouring out of the country.

Markets and investors most certainly do not judge and act upon changes that are old and dated as you seem to think. Markets react and change by the second and even the slightest change in a political or investment landscape show reactive change in investments and currencies.
Furthermore:
I have also never talked down the UK economy as you believe. I rather pass comment and relay my own take on how I believe matters in general will pan out. Laugh, you may, but your own clear gabling history and take on the Turkish economy is indeed comical. Perhaps you should hedge against the tl and the economy rather than criticise others
I disagree with your own analysis that Mr Erodogan is the sole cause of currency weakness. How possibly can you be so brash.
Turkish banking sector remains comparatively strong showing approx. 3% growth. Mr Erodogan is a political leader with limited influence or indeed desire to cripple the banking system. How can he possibly and indeed why would he want to install his own puppet bankers. The biggest issue is his purge. An air of uncertainty prevails in both private and public economic sectors. It is critical that the country moves into a state of stability as soon as possible.
I remain confident that the comparative strong Turkish economy will endure current difficulties in 2017 and investment will flow into the Turkish lira.
I have indicated why this is my take and whilst I welcome other views. It is clear that your own and my views differ markedly.
Do what a hedge Fund gambler suggests and share the trappings of such wisdom !!

Its the not just erdogans politics lwhich are responsible . Turkey imports most of its oil and thecreceny hikes are going to hurt plus its current account deficit . The worldwide low interest rates for the last decade has seen hot money flowing into turkey which it relies on now us interest rates are going up the flow is going to decrease. This hot money has seen turkey gdp do well and enabled akp party to maintain popularity . The problem is its not sustainable and turkey needs structural reform like trnc but these are unpopular and have not been done. Eg there is too much red tape for small business and too many giverment jobs people punting stamps on things etc .