Article 50, Brexit
Posted: Wed 29 Mar 2017 10:17 am
Great news, time to celebrate, time to pull together and time for those who still protest against Brexit to give it a rest.
The most active English Speaking Expat forum for North Cyprus
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woodspeckie wrote:Pass the message on to Waz I don't think he knows
kibsolar1999 wrote:yeah.. time to celebrate...
half the family sits in the garden and the other half inside.. and nobody knows what will be served from the kitchen.
so, start drinking, separetely of course.
the devision of the country is in full swing and you will cough a long time on that.
Here is a link that worksJohnny Lee wrote:It was sent to me by friends in America, it is Paul Weston, CPAC LIVE March 3rd 2016. . approx 13 minutes long .
Paul Martin Laurence Weston (born 1965) is a British far-right politician, the chairman of Liberty GB and a member of the Pegida UK leadership team. An activist and blogger, Weston joined the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in 2010 and stood as a Parliamentary candidate for Cities of London and Westminster. In 2011, Weston left UKIP and joined the now-defunct British Freedom Party with members of the English Defence League (EDL) and former members of the British National Party (BNP).[1]
For Liberty GB, he was a candidate for South East England in the 2014 European election[2] and for Luton South in the 2015 general election. He came last, with 158 votes (0.4%).[3]
He was married to an immigrant from Romania.[4][5] He was the President of the English branch of the International Free Press Society founded in 2009.[6]
That's right - I'm saying nothing!woodspeckie wrote:You saying nothing Keith ?
Where is the demise of employment law quote coming from?waz-24-7 wrote:Of course the demise of much employment law will assist UK businesses and perhaps many UK skilled workers from overseas will return to the motherland. Immigration policy must be published very quickly. The need for immigrant workers has been made abundantly clear
Kerry,kerry 6138 wrote:Where is the demise of employment law quote coming from?waz-24-7 wrote:Of course the demise of much employment law will assist UK businesses and perhaps many UK skilled workers from overseas will return to the motherland. Immigration policy must be published very quickly. The need for immigrant workers has been made abundantly clear
You forgot to add employer's and government investing and training in your sentence about immigrant workers surely?
The bill has not even got to white paper (proposal status yet !! Do please turn the lights on or put your glasses on!!turtle wrote:Waz
You're at it again ?
Obviously you do not pay attention of what is going on...... Read the Great Repeal Bill then apologize to Kerry.
turtle wrote:Initially ALL laws made over the last 40years will be brought over.... I will put money on it...
Stop scarmongering again !
No Of course.turtle wrote:Waz
Have a word with yourself man
The last thing the government will want to do is start changing laws at the first step.......bigger fish to fry
They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade. They are sabre rattling and they know it - which is why some EU-crats are making less confrontational overtures. What they are really scared about is more countries realising that the EU is a poisoned chalice.thickey wrote:I'm afraid to say the Europeans are going to go to town on us, and we could well be begging to get back in.Two year from now
Kerry,kerry 6138 wrote:Prime Minister's statement yesterday after delivery of the article 50
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 55931.html
pay attention waz.
We seek to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states as early as we can. That is set out very clearly in the letter as an early priority for the talks ahead.
We will ensure that workers’ rights are fully protected and maintained. Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers, we will build on them.
Do not think for a moment that the Union of 27 countries are doomed because of BREXIT. Todays meeting in Malta has bolstered the Union to move forward from BREXIT. The EU will prepare forward strategy too. I believe indeed Europe will become a stronger Union in coming years and will be a trade competitor to the UK. The strength of UK exports will in my opinion be a diminishing issue as the EU seeks, just like the UK, other avenues of opportunity.Groucho wrote:They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade. They are sabre rattling and they know it - which is why some EU-crats are making less confrontational overtures. What they are really scared about is more countries realising that the EU is a poisoned chalice.thickey wrote:I'm afraid to say the Europeans are going to go to town on us, and we could well be begging to get back in.Two year from now
turtle wrote:What I also believe is that BREXIT has shaken the EU tree and reform is now highly more likely and indeed possible.
If only that happened 18 months ago...... Reckless EU...and a hideous gambler
The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.Groucho wrote: They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.
erol wrote:The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.Groucho wrote: They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.
Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.
Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)
I guess you're not on a zero hour contract then waz.waz-24-7 wrote:Kerry,kerry 6138 wrote:Prime Minister's statement yesterday after delivery of the article 50
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 55931.html
pay attention waz.
We seek to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states as early as we can. That is set out very clearly in the letter as an early priority for the talks ahead.
We will ensure that workers’ rights are fully protected and maintained. Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers, we will build on them.
Worker rights have never been so good under the EU as preached during BREXIT by the TUC general Secretary. Today the vast task of revamping UK statute and Law commenced. It appears that maybe a high degree of "cut and paste" will take place. Many will not like this given the "take back control" slogan. What is certain is that there will be considerable political wrangling over what is to be set in statute. Employment law, which I believe is close to your heart will be one such matter of contention. Workers rights in the UK have moved drastically in favour of EU workers (UK included). Business and employers will certainly seek to turn the tide back to regain some employer rights. After all the opportunity is now there, Mrs May as a politician has promised the earth on rights. I think as ever the ability to deliver politically will be contested with vigour in parliament before the statue books are ratified as law. I expect much legislation to take many years to get on the timetable, be debated and eventually ratified.
The point I was making is that the UK is a net importer from the EU by a massive margin - with the rest of the trading world it's not the same story.erol wrote:The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.Groucho wrote: They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.
Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.
Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)
Agree that the EU will no doubt put a strategy in place to compete with the UK, that is what trade is all about. The difference hopefully will be that the UK will be making its own decisions and will in turn stand or fall by how competitive we are. Some may say this is a dangerous time others will say it's a great opportunity. Interesting and dare I say it exciting times ahead.waz-24-7 wrote:erol wrote:The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.Groucho wrote: They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.
Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.
Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)
Very well put Erol,
So many people have taken the view that the EU is a failing and dead duck. The risk to the UK is much bigger than many have estimated or probably guessed. Certainly initially the EU may suffer somewhat should negotiations go badly.
However the EU is far far better placed to recover and leave the UK high and dry. I am certain , Mr Spain, France, Germany etc will soon actively seek to entice, for example, car manufacturers to up sticks from UK and set up in the EU economic union where they can export, sell and capitalise unhindered on the lucrative EU market. I note just today. Lloyds of London ( insurance) are opening trading centre in Brussels
Just to point out that the BBC news had this same article on Breakfast to this morning. However; to be fair to them they highlighted the fact that one newspaper stated thousands of Lloyds employees relocating to Brussels, whilst another well known and popular broadsheet stated only tens of employees would relocate.
We should not at all underestimate the resolve and strategy that the Union will formulate to compete with the UK,
Europeans are not the idiots that many think they are.
Sorry Groucho, not trying to be obtuse here but I really do not follow your reasoning ?Groucho wrote:The point I was making is that the UK is a net importer from the EU by a massive margin - with the rest of the trading world it's not the same story.
If we swallow 16% of the rest of the EU's total exports (figures handily provided by the remain camp but nicely hidden well down in the financial case for remain. hoping we didn't spot them - idiots!) then that only leaves 84% split between the other 27 member states or approximately 3% each - i.e. they need us more than we need them - so what are they going to do - punish us by refusing to sell us stuff?
It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving - we are leaving the club that has become a different club to the one we joined and shows no sign of heading away from a superstate structure we have no wish or inclination to be a part of. However the idea that we and they will suddenly cease all trade is frankly ridiculous. We will trade - they will trade - and business will go on... the scary scenario that all of a sudden we are a rudderless ship on a stormy sea is more silly scare mongering. Money for all its faults will find an accommodation.erol wrote:Sorry Groucho, not trying to be obtuse here but I really do not follow your reasoning ?Groucho wrote:The point I was making is that the UK is a net importer from the EU by a massive margin - with the rest of the trading world it's not the same story.
If we swallow 16% of the rest of the EU's total exports (figures handily provided by the remain camp but nicely hidden well down in the financial case for remain. hoping we didn't spot them - idiots!) then that only leaves 84% split between the other 27 member states or approximately 3% each - i.e. they need us more than we need them - so what are they going to do - punish us by refusing to sell us stuff?
Imagine if each month I do 220 Euros worth of work for you and you do 290 euros of work for me. Imagine we have a falling out that puts this income for each of us at risk to an equal proportion. Your arguments seems to be, as far as I understand it, that you are in a weaker position with regards to this loss of income, because you stand to loose 290 euros where as I stand to only loose 220 euros. Yet if that 220 Euros of income for me represents 40% or 45% of my total monthly income and the 290 Euros of income for you only represents 12% or 16% of your total monthly income, then it seems clear, to me at least, that I am in the weaker position. Yes I stand to loose less than you in absolute terms but the effect of that loss to me is far greater than the larger loss is to you.
I was discussing the idea that "they (EU) have more to lose in trade (than the UK)." and the implication that this therefore puts the EU in a 'weaker negotiating position'.Groucho wrote: It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving -
There we must agree to disagree... because the two countries with the most clout Germany and France, stand to lose the most in a tit for tat trade war (the other member states are not in a position to be able to afford such shenanigans... I can't see Germany being minded to compensate the poorer EU member states for loss of trade they dictate must occur to punish the UK.erol wrote:I was discussing the idea that "they (EU) have more to lose in trade (than the UK)." and the implication that this therefore puts the EU in a 'weaker negotiating position'.Groucho wrote: It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving -
I agree the EU has 'more to loose in trade' in absolute terms, if the negotiations result in a 1% reduction in trade between the UK and EU or a 10% or 30% or whatever %. However I do not agree this therefore puts them in the 'weaker negotiating position' given that this potential respective loss would have a much smaller impact on the EU , even though the amount in absolute terms to them is larger, than it would have on the UK, even though the amount in absolute terms to UK is smaller. It seems clear to me that the EU can absorb any potential reduction in total trade amounts between the UK and the EU far easier than the UK can and that to me means they are, as unfortunate as that is, in the stronger relative 'negotiation position' on such issues ?
.waz-24-7 wrote:Day 1 of negotiations has not gone well.
The EU has made clear statement upon its road map for particularly a trade deal. Sounds like typical divorce negotiation. Want Want want, deny deny deny.
Anyone who has considered the EU as a lame duck at the mercy of UK reciprocal trade should wake up today and smell the coffee. Mrs May's desire to secure a quick and even consolatory trade deal has been firmly pushed behind the matter of EU citizen rights, Eire border with NI. Uncertainty prevails over UK business as the EU pushes forward with a level of certainty whilst setting themselves as the driver in the negotiations. I believe many people have not expected this.
The UK government has been concerningly quiet today after this announcement.
I believe that once a deal is on the table in 2 years the matter should be put to the people. At that point and ONLY at that point will the people have the full facts.
Groucho wrote:There we must agree to disagree... because the two countries with the most clout Germany and France, stand to lose the most in a tit for tat trade war (the other member states are not in a position to be able to afford such shenanigans... I can't see Germany being minded to compensate the poorer EU member states for loss of trade they dictate must occur to punish the UK.erol wrote:I was discussing the idea that "they (EU) have more to lose in trade (than the UK)." and the implication that this therefore puts the EU in a 'weaker negotiating position'.Groucho wrote: It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving -
I agree the EU has 'more to loose in trade' in absolute terms, if the negotiations result in a 1% reduction in trade between the UK and EU or a 10% or 30% or whatever %. However I do not agree this therefore puts them in the 'weaker negotiating position' given that this potential respective loss would have a much smaller impact on the EU , even though the amount in absolute terms to them is larger, than it would have on the UK, even though the amount in absolute terms to UK is smaller. It seems clear to me that the EU can absorb any potential reduction in total trade amounts between the UK and the EU far easier than the UK can and that to me means they are, as unfortunate as that is, in the stronger relative 'negotiation position' on such issues ?
So even though they are posturing that they will make sure the UK pays in the end they will see their self-interest prevail. The (French and German) large companies will not stand for their business being damaged by the politics of revenge.
The remain camp tried to woo the voters will tales of the havoc that will ensue and look where that got them....
geroff wrote:.waz-24-7 wrote:Day 1 of negotiations has not gone well.
The EU has made clear statement upon its road map for particularly a trade deal. Sounds like typical divorce negotiation. Want Want want, deny deny deny.
Anyone who has considered the EU as a lame duck at the mercy of UK reciprocal trade should wake up today and smell the coffee. Mrs May's desire to secure a quick and even consolatory trade deal has been firmly pushed behind the matter of EU citizen rights, Eire border with NI. Uncertainty prevails over UK business as the EU pushes forward with a level of certainty whilst setting themselves as the driver in the negotiations. I believe many people have not expected this.
The UK government has been concerningly quiet today after this announcement.
I believe that once a deal is on the table in 2 years the matter should be put to the people. At that point and ONLY at that point will the people have the full facts.
Jeeeez, Waz , you just love being so bleedy negative dont you.... the EU needs us more than we need them so for goodness sake stop watching the bias BBC and go on holiday for a couple of years you might be suprised when you come back what has been achieved !! ... You start negative every post, this is only the first bleedy day man!
Remind me not to take you to war ... I only want positive folk on my side ...