Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

Sterling now almost at year high.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... Y&view=12h
Where next week/month?

Ask waz what he thinks and you know the opposite will happen.

We are doomed its because of brexit .How will we survive

and sterling vs the euro is still around 15% lower than it was pre brexit.

TL remains very weak and unattractive to foreign investors

Also the the interest rate rise that is coming in the uk has strengthened the £

erol wrote:and sterling vs the euro is still around 15% lower than it was pre brexit.

It's Sterling v. Turkish Lira that interests most of us in TRNC.

€, who in the TRNC cares about this currency? £/TL rules OK!

€, who in the TRNC cares about this currency?
many. the Euro is just "hidden" ( in TL prices) .

It's Sterling v. Turkish Lira that interests most of us in TRNC.
really?

the STG is today 1,13 to the euro, was approx 1,40 before brexit and also before financial crunch (say, 2009).
thats nearly - 20%. (despite "greece" )
and the TL is not any better... with 8-10% inflation a year.

Ref msg 9. If I lived in a country where I depended upon a high € rate against £, I might be concerned. However, I live in the TRNC! THe € will also come a cropper when countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal also fail.

4.725tl to £ in Girne at 11:15 this morning.

tomsteel wrote:€, who in the TRNC cares about this currency? £/TL rules OK!

Er. Me, Tom!
Pension(s) in €€€€€ (as well as £££££)

For those of us with sterling incomes but expenses in Euros then the fall in value of Sterling vs the Euro has real direct meaningful effect. I would be one such person.

But really even those who say my income is in sterling and outgoings are in TL, thus I only care about the the Sterling TL rate and that has not changed much post Brexit, are with respect and in my view, kind of just deluding themselves anyway. The truth is without brexit you would today being getting much MORE tl for every pound sterling you change. Around 15% more. So this idea that brexit has not affected you because the rate between TL and sterling has not changed much over that period is not as I see things a reflection of reality but more a reflection of people believing what they want to believe rather than what all the evidence indicates.

So yes right now one pound sterling buys you 4.74 ish TL but the simple truth is (as I see it) that without brexit that same pound today would buy you more in the region of 5.45TL.

erol, face up to the fact the UK is BREXIT. The what ifs, what might be etc are irrelevant. The reality is the UK is leaving!

tomsteel wrote:erol, face up to the fact the UK is BREXIT. The what ifs, what might be etc are irrelevant. The reality is the UK is leaving!

Tom I absolutely am facing the fact that the UK voted for brexit and brexit is happening. I am also facing the reality and truth, unlike some, that to date the direct consequence of this is that my Sterling income is buying me around 15% less worth of 'stuff' , be I buying it in euros or TL. That to me is accepting reality more than claims that sterling has 'recovered' or that I have not lost anything on my sterling income when spent as TL. Who is really denying reality here Tom ?

erol, denying reality is not the issue. It's happening and us mere pond life can not change it, whatever the financial implications it imposes upon us. I do not disagree with you, but I accept that whatever will be, will be.

tomsteel wrote:erol, denying reality is not the issue. It's happening and us mere pond life can not change it, whatever the financial implications it imposes upon us. I do not disagree with you, but I accept that whatever will be, will be.

Believing that a 15% decrease in sterling (over a year and a half now) is an acceptable cost in order to achieve brexit is a valid position, not one I hold, but valid and I accept it as such without reservation. Stating that it is not within a persons power to change the effects of Brexit I also do not disagree with.

However arguing or suggesting that Brexit has NOT cost this to people with sterling incomes and non sterling expenditures, because the expenditures are in TL, or because sterling hit a one year 'high' or for any other 'reason', is as far as I am concerned just not a valid argument at all. It is in fact a form of deception , either to one self or others or both, as far as I am concerned. Now maybe you were not suggesting that because expenditure here is in TL that means people here have not lost 15% of the value of their sterling income but that is how I understood what you wrote. If I have misunderstood then I apologise. If I have not then I stand by the argument that such assertions are not valid and not based on reality.

It is what it is! Nothing we can do about it.

David wrote:TL remains very weak and unattractive to foreign investors

Isn't that the best time to buy?

You get a lot more of the product / currency / whatever for your Buck, and because Turkey is basically a strong manufacturing economy, the currency is bound to recover.

After it does, when it peaks, you swap to another currency which is temporarily in the doldrums, making a profit.

All currencies go up and down.

If you buy when a currency is strong, then you don't get much for your money, and the only way that it's going to go after that is DOWN

Deniz1 wrote:...Nothing we can do about it.

Yes there is!

Your options are: -

1) Buy
2) Sell
3) Wait, observing the trend, and choose to buy or sell as the trend reverses.

O.K. maybe it's not quite as simple as that, and others are bound to have a different view - I'd like to hear their views!

I take it as it comes, not sitting on a "nest egg" but existing on UK Government provided and taxed at source pensions there is little chance to "take a chance" and play the market games. So I change my Sterling at the best rate I can get and live in the "Lira Zone" budgeting accordingly. I watch my small savings in TL go up and down as the value of Sterling changes and could really not care about it as my TL always remains the currency I use. Probably if I had the "nest egg" and lived off the interest accrued I would be tempted (worried about) to play a little and move my money from one currency to another to make a profit.

I remember "Change Alley" in Singapore in my youth where you took you 10 dollars in at one end and tried to make a profit by the time you came out at the other end - never happened but was fun. Would not try that with my livelihood myself but can see where some would be happy to do this and indeed make a business out of it. I think unless you have money you can afford to lose then you should be extremely careful of what you do with it.

Later today Terry May is due to speak in Florence on the EU watch the £ move after her inspiring words

wanderer wrote:Later today Terry May is due to speak in Florence on the EU watch the £ move after her inspiring words

I saw on the BBC News website (so it must be true ) that she was going to offer the E.U. 20 BILLION Euros.

No Comment!

For pesonal reasons i would love the Turkish lira to strengthen and the pound weaken get back to the days of Tl 2.5 = £1

erol wrote:and sterling vs the euro is still around 15% lower than it was pre brexit.

And the euro is still massively undervalued - giving it a huge trading advantage over the US & UK. Central banks have for the last 10 years since the crash been desperately trying to engineer a weak currency for their respective economies - hence the conjuring up of $20 trillion out of thin air, $100 trillion of printed money and zero interest rates.

The euro has a massive advantage in these currency wars in that the north, especially Germany, is a mature powerhouse wheras the south is bankrupt. The north is able to export more goods with a weak currency because of the south. Split into two, the nortern euro would be worth 50% more than the southern euro.

The numbers involved here in world trade are enormous and any peripheral damage to the odd holiday maker or expat are not even on the radar.

erol wrote:For those of us with sterling incomes but expenses in Euros then the fall in value of Sterling vs the Euro has real direct meaningful effect. I would be one such person.

But really even those who say my income is in sterling and outgoings are in TL, thus I only care about the the Sterling TL rate and that has not changed much post Brexit, are with respect and in my view, kind of just deluding themselves anyway. The truth is without brexit you would today being getting much MORE tl for every pound sterling you change. Around 15% more. So this idea that brexit has not affected you because the rate between TL and sterling has not changed much over that period is not as I see things a reflection of reality but more a reflection of people believing what they want to believe rather than what all the evidence indicates.

So yes right now one pound sterling buys you 4.74 ish TL but the simple truth is (as I see it) that without brexit that same pound today would buy you more in the region of 5.45TL.

World currency pairs move independently. GBP v TLR is not correlated to GBP v EURO.

Keithcaley wrote:

David wrote:TL remains very weak and unattractive to foreign investors

Isn't that the best time to buy?

You get a lot more of the product / currency / whatever for your Buck, and because Turkey is basically a strong manufacturing economy, the currency is bound to recover.

After it does, when it peaks, you swap to another currency which is temporarily in the doldrums, making a profit.

All currencies go up and down.

If you buy when a currency is strong, then you don't get much for your money, and the only way that it's going to go after that is DOWN

Deniz1 wrote:...Nothing we can do about it.

Yes there is!

Your options are: -

1) Buy
2) Sell
3) Wait, observing the trend, and choose to buy or sell as the trend reverses.

O.K. maybe it's not quite as simple as that, and others are bound to have a different view - I'd like to hear their views!

Can I just add a caveat using 25 years of trading these markets as a guide - only trade the currency flunctuations with money you can afford to lose. And I've seen many traders go bust using the idea that 'the currency is bound to recover'

Hedge-fund wrote:...Can I just add a caveat using 25 years of trading these markets as a guide - only trade the currency flunctuations with money you can afford to lose. And I've seen many traders go bust using the idea that 'the currency is bound to recover'

I entirely agree - I would not want anyone to think that I was encouraging them to gamble with their savings! - I was just trying to clarify the principles of currency trading.

Hedge-fund wrote:World currency pairs move independently. GBP v TLR is not correlated to GBP v EURO.

Yes they move in pairs. So what ?

If the primary cause of a movement in the sterling against any currency is Brexit and the cause of a movement in TL is trouble in Turkey (downing Russian jets, coup etc ect) then the reality is if you imagine the cause of sterling's movement did not happen, that is imagine what would be the case if brexit had not secured a yes vote, the only sensible conclusion that could be drawn is that today you would be receiving around 15% more TL for each pound sterling. This is the cost of sterling's movement that resulted from a yes vote to leave. There will be those who for whatever reason will do what they can to try and obscure or deny this reality, to themselves or others or both, but it remains a reality none the less in my opinion.

Currency dealing is just another form of gambling. It shouldn't be dressed up as anything else.

frontalman wrote:Currency dealing is just another form of gambling. It shouldn't be dressed up as anything else.

For me the idea that currency trading (with your own money) is just a form of gambling and that you should not gamble with money you can not afford to loose are both things that are so obvious I do wonder why people feel any need to even state such here ?

Does anyone who trades currency do so not understanding that it is gamble and if someone told them they would not do it ? Does anyone who gambles with money they can not afford to loose do so simply because no one has told them they should not do so ?

erol wrote: So yes right now one pound sterling buys you 4.74 ish TL but the simple truth is (as I see it) that without brexit that same pound today would buy you more in the region of 5.45TL.

Are you taking into account had the vote gone the other way , no UK election PM Cameron/Osbourn leading a austerity government, with a leaderless oposision party, possibly a Democrat in the white house ,Trump was eboldened and played on the wave of anti establishment resentment, maybe riots in the streets of Paris / Berlin when the anti eu movements saw no use in the ballot box..

erol, the point, as I see it, is likened to fuel costs on the TRNC. The price is set and I have no say in that decision. My choice, therefore, is do not pay that price and no transport, heating, cooking etc or just get on with life. Whatever the value of £ against any other currency is, I have no say in it. I gather you are against Brexit and I respect whatever your view is. However, 15 or 30% or any other figure loss of the £ pre the decision is of no consequence. We are where we are now! Incidentally, I am not delusioned, neither do I advocate any position for others nor do I take any offence in that your view is not shared.

tomsteel wrote:erol, the point, as I see it, is likened to fuel costs on the TRNC. The price is set and I have no say in that decision. My choice, therefore, is do not pay that price and no transport, heating, cooking etc or just get on with life. Whatever the value of £ against any other currency is, I have no say in it. I gather you are against Brexit and I respect whatever your view is. However, 15 or 30% or any other figure loss of the £ pre the decision is of no consequence. We are where we are now! Incidentally, I am not delusioned, neither do I advocate any position for others nor do I take any offence in that your view is not shared.

Tom I understand everything that you say and do not disagree with it. If you have no interest in what the actual effects of the brexit decision to date have been on the basis it has happened and you can not change it, that is fine with me. What I am talking about is something different. I personally do have an interest in what the effects have been and how that has and is continuing to affect me in real terms. When I think people are suggesting in the context of that discussion that there has been no such effect, using for example the 'argument' that the value of TL to the pound is not that different post the Brexit decision than pre it, that is then where I do disagree because I think there clearly and most definitely has been a real an material effect, namely a drop in the value (how much stuff I can exchange it for )of my Sterling income when I spend it either as euros or as TL ot as dollars or any other currency you care to mention. That is all I am saying.

David, I agree with you, with one proviso - that the cost of everything is also changed back to what it was when the £ was 2.5TL (or was that YTL).

What will be will be, it is not so long ago that I read of the imminent demise of the Euro and that all should save now in US Dollars, later it became the £ that would be devalued and become worthless following Brexit - well in real terms only by 15%ish so far so not really worthless yet - but now the Euro is back in fashion to fail and the TL is - and always has been for the last ten years of my stay here - doomed to collapse in the next 20 seconds!!!

I keep my money in the sock under the bed - once it was in the unshakeable piece of GOLD but then the value of that went down - now I just save it in commodities like tins of beer (without sell by dates) that never go down in price - lol. Seems to me that unless you are in the "Rich" bracket to start with or have a disposable lump you are prepared to gamble with, that you might as well carry on doing what you are doing, because all things change and you have no control over them anyway???

kerry 6138 wrote:

erol wrote: So yes right now one pound sterling buys you 4.74 ish TL but the simple truth is (as I see it) that without brexit that same pound today would buy you more in the region of 5.45TL.

Are you taking into account had the vote gone the other way , no UK election PM Cameron/Osbourn leading a austerity government, with a leaderless oposision party, possibly a Democrat in the white house ,Trump was eboldened and played on the wave of anti establishment resentment, maybe riots in the streets of Paris / Berlin when the anti eu movements saw no use in the ballot box..

That the brexit decision has decreased how much stuff I can exchange one pound of Sterling for is not a matter of speculation as far as I am concerned, it is just a matter of fact. Yes you can speculate that in the absence of that decision some other factor or factors would have happened that would have lead to the same or greater reduction but to do so is just that, speculation. I accept it is possible that this would have been the case but I do not believe it is likely. The scale of the decrease in value of a pound following the brexit yes vote was in the same ball park as the drop in value that the TL saw as a result of things like the attempted coup in Turkey. These are 'big' events that have dramatic effects on things like the value of national currencies. I personally do not think that a no to Brexit was likely to have caused such a large scale and dramatic and so far sustained effect on the value of sterling as the yes did. You can take the view that Sterling was undoubtedly going to loose 15% of it's value and maintain that scale of loss for year + and counting, as a result of the brexit vote regardless of what the result of the vote was. I personally do not think that is a likely credible speculation. I do accept that it has more validly as an argument than the claim that there has been no effective loss in the value of my sterling as a result of the Brexit vote if I am spending such sterling in TL.

erol wrote:

Hedge-fund wrote:World currency pairs move independently. GBP v TLR is not correlated to GBP v EURO.

Yes they move in pairs. So what ?

If the primary cause of a movement in the sterling against any currency is Brexit and the cause of a movement in TL is trouble in Turkey (downing Russian jets, coup etc ect) then the reality is if you imagine the cause of sterling's movement did not happen, that is imagine what would be the case if brexit had not secured a yes vote, the only sensible conclusion that could be drawn is that today you would be receiving around 15% more TL for each pound sterling. This is the cost of sterling's movement that resulted from a yes vote to leave. There will be those who for whatever reason will do what they can to try and obscure or deny this reality, to themselves or others or both, but it remains a reality none the less in my opinion.

Lira is weak (against sterling, dollar & euro) because markets fear Erdogan will seize control of the central bank and Turkey's credit rating will crash. The brexit vote has not caused a 15% devaluation in your purchasing power. The currency wars between central banks is responsible for at least 11% of the post vote movements. The BOE's £13b immediate injection, plus £30b QE and then halving the interest rate equates to creating money heroin totalling 11% of UK GDP. The brexit vote uncertainty had some impact but this is diminishing as markets see record employment, steady house prices, record shares indices and hints of rising interest rates and unwinding of QE.

Hedge-fund wrote: The brexit vote uncertainty had some impact but this is diminishing as markets see record employment, steady house prices, record shares indices and hints of rising interest rates and unwinding of QE.

So you claim but the truth is I am still effectively getting less stuff for each pound of sterling I spend in foreign currencies. You can tell me that this is not a result of Brexit and it or most of it would have happened anyway whatever the vote result was but I personally just do not believe this.
This is the price of sterling vs a basket of G10 currencies. The before and after Brexit vote levels are pretty clear to me. I see little 'diminishing' of the post brexit vote drop and I personally find the claim that this or most of this would have happened anyway regardless of the vote less than credible.

How can anyone believe Brexit did not have any negative effect on GBP is beyond me.

Ref msg 38 above. But what can mere pond-life do about it? Brexit happened, like WW2, we have to live with it and move on. Looking behind is useless.

erol wrote:

Hedge-fund wrote: The brexit vote uncertainty had some impact but this is diminishing as markets see record employment, steady house prices, record shares indices and hints of rising interest rates and unwinding of QE.

So you claim but the truth is I am still effectively getting less stuff for each pound of sterling I spend in foreign currencies. You can tell me that this is not a result of Brexit and it or most of it would have happened anyway whatever the vote result was but I personally just do not believe this.

Sterling.JPG

This is the price of sterling vs a basket of G10 currencies. The before and after Brexit vote levels are pretty clear to me. I see little 'diminishing' of the post brexit vote drop and I personally find the claim that this or most of this would have happened anyway regardless of the vote less than credible.

You are having an argument with no-one erol as no-one is disagreeing with you. You are seeing less bang for your buck (or sterling) but it's not mostly brexit related. It's the actions of your central bank - so blame them not the referendum

The indicator wrote:How can anyone believe Brexit did not have any negative effect on GBP is beyond me.

No-one has suggested that as far as I can see.

Hedge-fund wrote: You are having an argument with no-one erol as no-one is disagreeing with you. You are seeing less bang for your buck (or sterling) but it's not mostly brexit related. It's the actions of your central bank - so blame them not the referendum

So you keep saying (the lost value of my sterling is not principaly a result of brexit but a result of BoE actions). I still just do not believe that. I look at the graph above and I see the drop , cliff face drop on the day the vote result came in. Not a drop of 4% that you claim is attributable to Brexit but a drop of 20%. I then look on the graph for the days those BoE actions happen (QE injections or interest base rate announcements), that you claim account for 11% of the lost value to date, and I see no similar movement of the scale of 11%. I am a a simple person and have never traded currencies or anything else for a living but the correlations seem very clear to me. Something happens (brexit vote) and there is immediate and massive drop on the graph. Other things happen (QE injections , interest rate announcements) and there is not such drop on the graph of similar scale. Yet according to you the things that do not correlate to movements on the graph time wise account for the lions share of the overall drop and thing that did cause a massive drop does not. Sorry I just do not buy it. The other thing I can not see on the graph is your claimed 'diminishing' of the effect of Brexit on sterling either. I hope to see that at some point and no one would be happier but it is not there on the graph of hard actual data, that I can see.

Hedge-fund wrote:

The indicator wrote:How can anyone believe Brexit did not have any negative effect on GBP is beyond me.

No-one has suggested that as far as I can see.

No but you did and are suggesting that the negative effect on sterling because of brexit is a mere 4%.

erol wrote:

Hedge-fund wrote:

The indicator wrote:How can anyone believe Brexit did not have any negative effect on GBP is beyond me.

No-one has suggested that as far as I can see.

No but you did and are suggesting that the negative effect on sterling because of brexit is a mere 4%.

What I really find annoying is the absolute certainty expressed by the remain camp that all currency fluctuations are the result of the referendum result...

erol wrote:

Hedge-fund wrote: You are having an argument with no-one erol as no-one is disagreeing with you. You are seeing less bang for your buck (or sterling) but it's not mostly brexit related. It's the actions of your central bank - so blame them not the referendum

So you keep saying (the lost value of my sterling is not principaly a result of brexit but a result of BoE actions). I still just do not believe that. I look at the graph above and I see the drop , cliff face drop on the day the vote result came in. Not a drop of 4% that you claim is attributable to Brexit but a drop of 20%. I then look on the graph for the days those BoE actions happen (QE injections or interest base rate announcements), that you claim account for 11% of the lost value to date, and I see no similar movement of the scale of 11%. I am a a simple person and have never traded currencies or anything else for a living but the correlations seem very clear to me. Something happens (brexit vote) and there is immediate and massive drop on the graph. Other things happen (QE injections , interest rate announcements) and there is not such drop on the graph of similar scale. Yet according to you the things that do not correlate to movements on the graph time wise account for the lions share of the overall drop and thing that did cause a massive drop does not. Sorry I just do not buy it. The other thing I can not see on the graph is your claimed 'diminishing' of the effect of Brexit on sterling either. I hope to see that at some point and no one would be happier but it is not there on the graph of hard actual data, that I can see.

Ok I've tried to explain the mechanics behind what I've said and I've given specific numbers on how I arrived there. The thread was also started with a point that sterling is at a year's high and this holds against most other currencies too.

You are seeing the situation from a very personal narrow viewpoint and I totally get that so will try to address it.

You are feeling a pinch because you have a personal financial exposure - I think you said GBP v EURO.

This risk is very real and can be seen as a quantifiable risk. What do you do with your other quantifiable risks? You insure against them. If your house has a fire you don't blame the paper, the match, the cinder or the gas etc.........you collect compensation from the insurance company. If your house is damaged by water you don't blame the river, the storm or the burst pipe.....you collect compensation from the insurance company.

Your risk is financial so how do people/organisations insure against financial risk? They hedge.

Airlines protect against movements in the oil price by hedging the price of oil between the price now and the price in the future.

Building societies hedge against movements in interest rates by locking in the rate of interest now until a specified future date (hedging)

Banks hedge against currency movements in their international operations by hedging currency pairs across the globe.

Sounds complicated and big business and it is but the theory remains the same whatever amounts are involved.

Plenty of people have overseas property and a lot hedge the risk of currency fluctuation (cost of carry) This doesn't normally arise in the TRNC because most property is valued in sterling but if we look at Europe there is a financial risk to the property value due to movements in the exchange rate of GDP to Euro.

You seem to have a similar financial risk due to movements in the exchange rate of GDP to Euro and may want to insure yourself against this risk and to do this you can hedge using a financial instrument called a futures trade. If the euro falls in value your hedge would make money and protect your loss. If the euro gains in value your hedge would lose money but your euro income would be worth more therefore protecting your loss.

Again, this sounds complicated but it's not. You can hedge currency gains/loses of several thousand per annum using a few hundred pounds worth of futures trades (your insurance "premium")

I am not advocating you become a trader - just that you consider insuring your financial risk using a financial instrument. In that way you won't blame brexit for currency fluctuations you will simply collect the compensation from your futures contract.

I'm 100% certain you will not take out a futures contract and, again, I totally get that.......................I'm just attempting to widen the picture from a very narrow view of cause and effect and how to plan around it. I do not do this for a living (I'm retired from the City) so am not recommending a futures future for you! But it's certainly something I know something about and have tried to explain in terms more people can understand.

It's an interesting subject and I'd be more than happy to share a beer with you to discuss useless central bankers, unfair taxes and bankrupt governments and how to protect your money from them!

Groucho wrote:What I really find annoying is the absolute certainty expressed by the remain camp that all currency fluctuations are the result of the referendum result...

Just look at the graph. I am absolutely certain that on the same day the vote result came in sterling's value against a basket of other currencies fell by around 20%. I am certain of this because it is just a fact, an absolute fact. It is also a fact that since then and to date subsequent fluctuations have been all been in the band of -15% to -20% from pre vote levels.

My 'certainty' that Brexit has to date made my sterling worth less, not just 4% less, is based on the fact that it happen when the vote happend. It is just a fact that the day after the vote, when we went and bought our cat food in the south as normal, we got less than we used to get the week before, the month before the year before - around 15-20% less and it is a fact we are still today getting less by around the same amount (15%).

Presumably you find little annoyance in the 'certainty' of those, like hedge-fund, who claim that the vast majority of the currency fluctuation, that happened when the vote happend, was not a result of the vote but was the result of things that happened after the vote and after the fall in sterling ?

erol wrote:

Groucho wrote:What I really find annoying is the absolute certainty expressed by the remain camp that all currency fluctuations are the result of the referendum result...

Just look at the graph. I am absolutely certain that on the same day the vote result came in sterling's value against a basket of other currencies fell by around 20%. I am certain of this because it is just a fact, an absolute fact. It is also a fact that since then and to date subsequent fluctuations have been all been in the band of -15% to -20% from pre vote levels.

My 'certainty' that Brexit has to date made my sterling worth less, not just 4% less, is based on the fact that it happen when the vote happend. It is just a fact that the day after the vote, when we went and bought our cat food in the south as normal, we got less than we used to get the week before, the month before the year before - around 15-20% less and it is a fact we are still today getting less by around the same amount (15%).

Presumably you find little annoyance in the 'certainty' of those, like hedge-fund, who claim that the vast majority of the currency fluctuation, that happened when the vote happend, was not a result of the vote but was the result of things that happened after the vote and after the fall in sterling ?

The sharp fall in sterling following the vote was not done by governments it was done by traders. Have a look at the FTSE charts - a similar thing happened. Traders were speculating on where these indices will end up and large amounts are made and lost as speculations unwind.

The chancellor and BOE governor were rabid remainers and threatened armageddon the day after any brexit vote (remember emergency budgets, interest rate hikes etc etc) Traders had these threats in mind when selling sterling on the result.

The chancellor has been sacked and Carney is eating his words. The economy is booming, the FTSE is at record highs, employment is at record lows & the housing market is stable.

The fall in sterling was the expectation that the BoE would scorch the earth and they did. This was their (totally wrong) reaction to bexit and it massively impacted the value of sterling (by 11% as previously explained) so if you want anyone/anything to blame for your current situation blame the BoE reaction.

They have accepted their error and will start to unwind what they did in November so the pound will pick up from then on.

Hedge-fund wrote:Ok I've tried to explain the mechanics behind what I've said ,,,,,,

Thank you for post about to how to protect myself against currency fluctuations by hedging. It is somewhat patronising but I thank you for it none the less.

However this is just not what I have been discussing or am interested in discussing in this thread. What I am disputing with you, is what is the primary cause of the loss in value of my sterling, which is real and undeniable, is. As I understand it you argue and maintain that the cause is primarily not Brexit but other factors. That Brexit accounts for around 4% of the loss in value of my sterling against the 15% actual loss and the rest, around 11% is caused by other factors. I do not believe or accept this. I do not believe or accept this because I did not want the UK to leave the EU. I do not believe or accept this because I just see no evidence to support such claims. The vote happend and sterling fell, not around 4% but around 20% and has stayed to date since in a band of between 15-20% less than pre the vote. I can see this as fact. Later the other things that you claim account for 11% of the loss happend and yet there was no such scale of movement in the value of sterling when these things happend. This is why I do not believe these other factors (interest rate setting, QE injections etc) are responsible for 11% pf the 15% loss my sterling still has today and Brexit only 4%. I do not believe this because I see no evidence that supports such claims.

Am happy to meet up for a beer at any time and discuss anything btw.

Hedge-fund wrote: The sharp fall in sterling following the vote was not done by governments it was done by traders. Have a look at the FTSE charts - a similar thing happened. Traders were speculating on where these indices will end up and large amounts are made and lost as speculations unwind.

The chancellor and BOE governor were rabid remainers and threatened armageddon the day after any brexit vote (remember emergency budgets, interest rate hikes etc etc) Traders had these threats in mind when selling sterling on the result.

The chancellor has been sacked and Carney is eating his words. The economy is booming, the FTSE is at record highs, employment is at record lows & the housing market is stable.

The fall in sterling was the expectation that the BoE would scorch the earth and they did. This was their (totally wrong) reaction to bexit and it massively impacted the value of sterling (by 11% as previously explained) so if you want anyone/anything to blame for your current situation blame the BoE reaction.

And yet if the vote had gone the other way, what is the chance that would have resulted in my getting 15-20% less cat food, for over a year now, when bought in the south using my sterling ?

Hedge-fund wrote:They have accepted their error and will start to unwind what they did in November so the pound will pick up from then on.

I hope you are right but even if sterling vs a basket of other major currencies were to regain is pre vote value that it lost following the vote result tomorrow, my view would still be that Brexit cost me around 15% less 'cat food' for over a year before no longer costing me such. That will be my view, not because I voted to remain in the referendum, but because it is what has actually happened. When I see it (this recovery) on the graph I will believe it has happened, not before. When people tell me do not worry or care or be interested in what has already happened because in the future this affect will be reversed, I remain sceptical until it does happen and I see and feel it happen.

If my house burns down I do not blame my loss on fire but I do accept that fire caused my loss. I do not say fire was 25% the cause of my loss and hurricane was 75% the cause because I have a vested interest in promoting a view that fire is not so bad really.

erol, £ up against € today as a result of German election result and other European nations advocating exit from EU. Where will various currencies end up in value, who knows? Be calm buddy.