Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

Heres mine:

Akp alliance win presidential and parliament both by 52 % of the vote . Hdp only get 7 % and fail to qualify . Theres a big hoo haw with voting irregularites and ballot box stuffing claims in the south east . The losing parties make a court case against voterfraud but it goes nowhere . They threaten to go ta an outsidecourt but by then nobody is interested.

In the meantime akp party announce a new era and reduce interest rates . Halk bank are sanctioned for money laundering by the us and fined . The lira and bank stocks tank . Theres a realisation that the economy has been propped up by short term measures eg fuel subsidy state handouts state fund buying the borsa. Capital controls are imposed . The us is blamed for everything . Turkey banks go through a greek style collapse . Tutkey go cap in hand to the imf. They get a bailout with heavy clause austerity reforms etc attached. Theres a 20 % gdp contraction . Civil unrest . Not sure how it turns out . civil war perhaps a coup perhaps akp ride through it and come out the other end

I would hope your prediction to be wrong but unfortunately I really don't think you will be. I can see a huge amount of civil unrest coming when it becomes obvious how bad the economic situation is. As the vast majority only see the state media they are in for a huge shock in the not too distant future I think. All we can do is wait and see.

The big boss has turned into a dictator and seems not interested in the countries economy more into becoming a stronger Islamic country, no outside investors will put money into a country that is going downhill so rapidly.

Now where does Turkey go from here ??

Well the Lira has strengthened on news of Erdogan's win... the markets don't mind popular dictators.. they worry about lack of control and Erdogan's win means more control than you can shake a stick at. That we characterise this control as oppression does not trouble the markets.

Markets don't like uncertainty, and the West was affecting the value of the Lira to try to bring Erdogan down (in my opinion). Now that has failed, the Lira will probably strengthen a bit.

BBC "Mr Erdogan has presided over a strong economy and built up a solid support base by investing in healthcare, education and infrastructure."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44596072

Wait until theres talk of interest rate cuts.....

Saying one thing during an election campaign, and doing it, are two completely different things.

Above is my predictionin june id say mostlyright so far . Im not to be claimng to be an expert or anything as most was highly predictable anyway .