Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

An article in today's Daily Telegraph 'Turkey edges closer to crisis...'

https://bit.ly/2n7zC9m

No problem albayrak (erdogans son in law runnng the economy) has just done an interview and they have everything under control and by the end of this year there will be a strong downward cycle in interest rates and inflation.

Turkeys interest rate is 18.5 %....the consensus from economists is that interest rates need to go up to reduce inflation. however erdogan and his son in law believe the exact opposite is true! So far its not going to well .

Reyntj wrote:No problem albayrak (erdogans son in law runnng the economy) has just done an interview and they have everything under control and by the end of this year there will be a strong downward cycle in interest rates and inflation.

Turkeys interest rate is 18.5 %....the consensus from economists is that interest rates need to go up to reduce inflation. however erdogan and his son in law believe the exact opposite is true! So far its not going to well .

No it won't really!
Does Erdogan have any other son in laws? You never know.....one of them......

The man is an idiot who will bring the country to its knees very soon

A lot of things are said about erdogan but one thing for sure he is no idiot . His unorthodox view about interest rates could well be to do with islam.

Talk in US of sanctions over the arrest of a US citizen pushed rates up this week

kerry 6138 wrote:Talk in US of sanctions over the arrest of a US citizen pushed rates up this week

I'm sure it didn't help but I think it's lack of confidence and not putting up interest rates that are the real drivers

Just as an aside since the Bank of England put up the base rate above .05 for the first time since 2008 crisis, the pound has lost ground vs the dollar.

Yes itvis an aside and nothing to do with the post but a clear distraction from the the fact that turkey is in crisis . Anyone would think you where trying to create a diversion.....

erol wrote:Just as an aside since the Bank of England put up the base rate above .05 for the first time since 2008 crisis, the pound has lost ground vs the dollar.

Yes it crashed about 0.000125% didn't it?

erol wrote:Just as an aside since the Bank of England put up the base rate above .05 for the first time since 2008 crisis, the pound has lost ground vs the dollar.

Mark Carney's doomsday Brexit predictions were what accounted for the call in the pound!

"TURKEY is facing a full-blown balance of payments crisis as foreign funds flee the country and the plummeting lira cripples companies saddled with dollar debt"
"The lira crashed to an all-time low of 5.09 against the US dollar yesterday. It has fallen 35pc since mid-February, rivalling Argentina as the poster-child of the emerging market storm of 2018."
“This could get a lot worse. Turkish corporates have borrowed in dollars and euros and they are not hedged,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist for the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the world’s leading watchdog on emerging markets.
The slide in the Turkish lira is turning dangerous for a country with foreign currency debt worth 60pc of GDP and a current account deficit of 6.1pc that requires constant inflows of capital. “They need to stabilise the exchange rate right now,” said Tim Ash from BlueBay Asset Management. “The central bank should have raised rates in June. It was an absolute no-brainer, and it is beyond comprehension why it was not willing to do so,” he said.
The lira’s continued weakening poses a major risk to banks’ capital levels and asset quality
Turkey has become reliant on short-term debt to keep afloat as foreign direct investment in factories and the real economy dries up. It has built up $180bn (£138bn) of foreign loans on maturities of less than one year. Gross financing needs over the next 12 months have ballooned to $230bn. This creates acute “roll-over risk” at a time when the US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and draining global dollar liquidity".

Just how will it affect the TRNC if Turkeys finances crumble?

Well because I think accuracy actually matters, though no doubt some will see it as 'ego'

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: Yes it crashed about 0.000125% didn't it?

0.8% actually but what is a little 6400 times exaggeration when making a point ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 74156.html

Maisiemoo wrote: Mark Carney's doomsday Brexit predictions were what accounted for the call in the pound!

The interest rate increase was on the 2nd August as was the drop in sterling of around .8%. His comments about the chances of a hard crash out brexit having increased were on the 5th august and showed near zero movement in sterling as a result, mainly I think because despite your portrayal as to what he said on the 5th as a 'doomsday prediction' I think the markets pretty much saw it as him stating the bleeding obvious.
My comment was not some 'political statement'. I just mentioned it in passing as it is somewhat unusual for a currency to go down as a result of a base rate rise and there was discussion about Erdogan's aversion to increasing TL rates in order to shore up the TL. It would seem the drop was because the rise was already pretty much 'priced in' to the market and the drop was more about what the market was guessing in terms of future rises and when they might happen.

erol wrote: 0.8% actually but what is a little 6400 times exaggeration when making a point ?

I forgot you don't have a sense of humour. But 0.8% you are right it's crashed. Can you not get the rates off an independent source rather than an Independent source?

erol wrote: I think the markets pretty much saw it as him stating the bleeding obvious.

It's bleedin obvious that China manipulates it's currency against the dollar but after a total denial and thousands of words later you finally acknowledged they "manage their currency" Which makes debating with you such a joy.

Even getting a basic fact agreed on before we debate an opinion of it is like gift wrapping an an omelette.

erol wrote:
My comment was not some 'political statement'. I just mentioned it in passing as it is somewhat unusual for a currency to go down as a result of a base rate rise.

I thought you mentioned it because I said the lire went down because he needs to raise the interest rates and you wanted to score points?

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: But 0.8% you are right it's crashed.

Who other than you said anything about a 'crash' ? I merely point out that, somewhat atypically, Sterling 'lost ground' against the dollar after interest rates were increased. It did. It lost 0.8% as the article I linked to said and as confirmed by the chart I also posted that comes from xe.com
, the well know left leaning political currency website.

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:It's bleedin obvious that China manipulates it's currency against the dollar but after a total denial and thousands of words later you finally acknowledged they "manage their currency" Which makes debating with you such a joy.

You should try reading the discussion again and focus on what I actually said and why, rather than on what you imagine I said and why after you have filtered it through your own biases, I suggest.

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: Even getting a basic fact agreed on before we debate an opinion of it is like gift wrapping an an omelette.

A basic fact like did I claim sterling 'crashed' as a result of the interest rate rise you mean ?

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:I thought you mentioned it because I said the lire went down because he needs to raise the interest rates and you wanted to score points?

You think lots of things but just you thinking something does not in of of it self mean it is true. I have stated clearly why I mentioned it, you can either believe me or not as you like. I care little what you chose to believe either way to be blunt.

Like i said a clear diversion tactic and getting the desired response. Doesnt like to read negative posts about the turkish economy etc and thers no real credible response so creates a diversion . It was so easy to spot. My wifes turkish so i have empathy as in general turkish people are brought up from school to be incredibly nationalistic and cant stand anything bad said about anything turkish even if its the plain truth. Its does become a bit of their achilles heel as theres many are a bit sheltered and believe absolutely everything turkey from the cooking to technology thatbthey are the best . This nationalistic mindset is everywhere these days to different extents . Politicians like trump and erdogan prey on it to garner support . Much of what both trump and erdogan get reported n the press is said to rally its supporters .

The nationlism is a kick back against globalisation . Its a dangerous weapon in the wrong hands. As we kniw from world war 2.

erol wrote: You should try reading the discussion again and focus on what I actually said and why, rather than on what you imagine I said and why after you have filtered it through your own biases, I suggest.

I just did. You started by denying the Chinese manipulated their currency and then said I was selecting a certain point of time which in fact you did. When I produced ten years worth of basically zero movement you admitted the managed their currency.

erol wrote:
A basic fact like did I claim sterling 'crashed' as a result of the interest rate rise you mean ?

Then why bring it up as it was an irrelevant point about an irrelevant currency change. Was someone else to do similar to distract you in the middle of your latest book you would bleat straw man straw man

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:I just did. You started by denying the Chinese manipulated their currency

Should be easy to show the actual quote where I say this then ?

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:and then said I was selecting a certain point of time which in fact you did. When I produced ten years worth of basically zero movement you admitted the managed their currency.

Well I can not be arsed to go back and check right now but my memory is that my first and main point was that actually it is not easy to just move a currency (any currency not just one in a command economy like china) over any sort of sustained period simply by 'having lots of money'. Anyway.

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Then why bring it up as it was an irrelevant point about an irrelevant currency change. Was someone else to do similar to distract you in the middle of your latest book you would bleat straw man straw man

So sorry but as I know you aversion to 'swerving' can we just be clear here ? I did not use the word 'crash' right ? You agree ? The only reference to the 0.8 % movement resulting from the rate hike being a 'crash' was from you, twice ? You agree ?

As to why did I mention it at all, I have explained that once already but on request I will do so again. I mentioned it in passing, because it was unusual and there had been discussion about the relation ship to central bank rate changes and currency value vs other currencies. In some parallel universe I mentioned it and the discussion just moved back to the general one, without anyone making out the move was near zero or claiming the drop was the result of something it was not. In this universe these things did happen and I responded, because I am a pedant and accuracy actually matters to me, in principal. Sue me.

...?

jofra wrote: ...?

For the last 6 posts

Do try to keep up you two!

Yet another thread that looks like it is turning into a point scoring opportunity for two posters rather than stick to the topic. These constant nit picking arguments don't do the forum any favours.

Don't worry I'm done, life's too short, he'll have a free run to quote his nonsense and steer subjects whatever way he chooses.
Its not the weight of argument it's the sheer weight of the padding.
Hmmm shall I refer to him as Tommy Robinson which is the name everyone knows him by? Nope Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon for me. A little more obscure and double the words.