Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

interesting read

https://www.ibtimes.sg/top-israeli-scie ... mple-43414

I hope he is right but have to ask what if he is not ?

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 1:13 pm

I hope he is right but have to ask what if he is not ?

Or another question if he is wrong if we go down the route of the lock down what is the exit strategy that won't entail us going into periodic lock downs.

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 1:45 pm

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 1:13 pm

I hope he is right but have to ask what if he is not ?

Or another question if he is wrong if we go down the route of the lock down what is the exit strategy that won't entail us going into periodic lock downs.

seems to me having in place means to monitor, test, track etc is the way out of lockdown ? we ease out of lockdown , we test extensively, we monitor if a lockdown easing is causing infection to go up and we track infection and test those in contact with known new infections. constant rinse and repeat

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 2:46 pm

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 1:45 pm

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 1:13 pm

I hope he is right but have to ask what if he is not ?

Or another question if he is wrong if we go down the route of the lock down what is the exit strategy that won't entail us going into periodic lock downs.

seems to me having in place means to monitor, test, track etc is the way out of lockdown ? we ease out of lockdown , we test extensively, we monitor if a lockdown easing is causing infection to go up and we track infection and test those in contact with known new infections. constant rinse and repeat

It sounds feasible but to test everyone in the UK is going to take one hell of a long time. Realistically it will take two days to get the results back. The UK has a target of 100,000 tests a day but is only carrying out less than 20,000. Germany who is getting many plaudits are only testing around 50,000 to 70,000 per day.
So let's say we get testing up to 100,000 per day and the results back the same day, that's the thick end of 2 years.
So monitoring on that time lag means we will be chasing our tails.
Then do we make it compulsory which will give the civil liberties brigade a field day?

Am thinking more here than UK with the above. How we can get out of lockdown whilst minimising risk of new infection flare ups. Do not need to test everyone ? So small shops reopen on 4th may. To monitor test as many working in those shops as you can 'random sample' to try and gauge if this opening leads to new infection ? None of this is particularly thought through. Just chucking suggestions out there.

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 4:28 pm

None of this is particularly thought through. Just chucking suggestions out there.

Blimey - is this you turning into Donald Trump?

Groucho wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 5:15 pm

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 4:28 pm

None of this is particularly thought through. Just chucking suggestions out there.

Blimey - is this you turning into Donald Trump?

Not yet - its when I make such musing in a live national televised press conference designed to provide information to people that I will have finally 'cracked it'

time and place, time and place

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 4:28 pm

Am thinking more here than UK with the above. How we can get out of lockdown whilst minimising risk of new infection flare ups. Do not need to test everyone ? So small shops reopen on 4th may. To monitor test as many working in those shops as you can 'random sample' to try and gauge if this opening leads to new infection ? None of this is particularly thought through. Just chucking suggestions out there.

Then if you go on here then, its far less of a population to test but no way you are going to get within a country mile of tens of thousands tested daily so the time scale would still be long.

Personally I'd get some infrastructure in place e.g. tests and a quarantine place and go for it. Maybe do a rule of thumb per shop space as to how many customers they allow in at a time, reduce tables in restaurants to allow more space between tables, keep the masks and gloves rule as much as practical etc etc.
It won't be perfect but if businesses and the population can get in some income it may keep their heads above water. Also with some money swilling around the economy it gives the government a fighting chance of being able to afford the infrastructure.

At the end of the day we are all grown ups so the most vulnerable people, and that would include a lot of the more elderly expats, don't HAVE to suddenly start going out socialising and browsing in a variety of shops, there is personal responsibility here.

Surely no one thought that if the virus was a contagious and dangerous as some would have it that the steps put in place for say the supermarkets were anything near 100% safe?

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 27 Apr 2020 5:17 pm

Not yet - its when I make such musing in a live national televised press conference designed to provide information to people that I will have finally 'cracked it'

TBH given the amount of time it will take to test everyone, if anyone was encouraged to inject bleach by Trump's words then keep quiet. You would be wasting precious resources and time on someone who is going to dive off the Empire State Building in their Superman cape in the none to distant future anyhow.