Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

i see today's exchange rate is 9.66tl to the pound. Certain newspapers in UK are saying sterling is still " strong "? What are the factors?

I got 9.6tl this morning
Turkish central bank is trying to get $ down to 6.5,currently at 6.85. And £ down to 9.1.
Kibris Gazette.

How does this benefit " the local man in the street" at present?

As the lira recovers and gets stronger in the money markets. will we see a reduction in prices at the shops to mirror the currency??????????????? Dont all shout at once!!!!!!!

Geoff1131 wrote: ↑

Wed 17 Feb 2021 2:57 pm

As the lira recovers and gets stronger in the money markets. will we see a reduction in prices at the shops to mirror the currency??????????????? Dont all shout at once!!!!!!!

There is no chance of that happening..

a changed a rite bloodi lump up when it was nearli 7 tl ta pund and me bein yorkshire man thought i waz doin well hahah u liv n learn

sunseasand wrote: ↑

Fri 19 Feb 2021 5:19 pm

a changed a rite bloodi lump up when it was nearli 7 tl ta pund and me bein yorkshire man thought i waz doin well hahah u liv n learn

You are not alone!

Every single time that I have changed my position regarding currency, it's gone the other way, and I've lost money.

Must be a Yorkshire thing

Ha, I changed mine into USD right after 1st of Jan this year - anyone who wants financial advice seek it from someone else please as my advice is rubbish!!! Should have bought Bitcoin years ago and still waiting for it to crash - lol.

I always buy the wrong thing. I bought an eight track stereo for the car.

Keithcaley wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Feb 2021 10:15 am

sunseasand wrote: ↑

Fri 19 Feb 2021 5:19 pm

a changed a rite bloodi lump up when it was nearli 7 tl ta pund and me bein yorkshire man thought i waz doin well hahah u liv n learn

You are not alone!

Every single time that I have changed my position regarding currency, it's gone the other way, and I've lost money.

Must be a Yorkshire thing

Fell in the same trap when we first arrived - changed some to Tl at 3ish and it plummeted to about 2.3ish - got the right hump but sat on it - eventually went to about 3.5 and I bailed - never been tempted to dabble again!

Why did u get the hump when you bought at 3 and it fell to 2.3.......

It's the converse at that point your tl had strengthened considerably

I think your wise not to dabble....

Oh yeah, got the figures wrong , was a long time ago

TL weakening again so are we to assume they are building up their foreign reserves again?
If nothing else at 10 to the pound it makes the maths very easy.

Erdogan spoke and defended albayraks previous actions a day or so ago the tl reacted accordingly also £ has been strengthening against $. Out of interest one investment manager this morning on Bloomberg said they are forecasting 1.60 to the $ by year end . So further upside the in the tl/gbp might be limited by strength of £ against a basket of currencies . Having said that these forecasters are just guessing like everybody else but they do it for a living still prone to getting it wrong. Maybe start thinking about a holiday in USA....

I see today it is expected to go to 11.

Chris, proof of how switched on I am with finance, I changed £500 yesterday morning at what I thought was a good rate of 10.38! Never listen to my advise on money - lol.

Waddo I have posted this 'guide' many times before but just for you here it is again.

http://poundf.co.uk/gbp-to-try-forecast

I went to change $750 today in Famagusta I counted out the money at the counter. They ran it throught the machine 750 appeared on the display till in red. They gave me the tl and a ticket. I got to the car and checked the ticket said $710.....I went back they still had the $750 on the counter I gave them the ticket....they said oh they had made an input error on the computer......
.I can't see how that was possible I'm pretty sure others can see what has gone on here

Chris, thank you, I have the link but am too stupid to check it - no fool like an old fool - lol.

Turkish Central Bank has just raised rates by 2% to 19%.

It's quite unbelievable but erdogan has done it again....he sacked the central bank governor. Just as I thought there would be a reprieve it really is an astonishing act....I cant believe this Wii be received well...

https://www.ft.com/content/86bef727-66d ... e846a276fd

The new governor is an economic columnist for the Islamic pro goverment newspaper yeni safak.........
https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2021/ekonomi/p ... r-6324745/
As expected he also supports erdogans unorthodox view that high interest rates cause inflation.....

Well it seems to have had an effect on the exchange rate. 10.01 at close yesterday.

I think you will find it only happened today

I thought I saw something on Youtube last week about it.

Must have been a fortune teller. I think your confusing the central bank governor raising interest rates by 2% which did indeed lead to an increase in the tl. Then today erdogan sacked him......

Yes I could well be now you mention it. Even so a big change in the exchange rate in the opposite direction again. Was considering putting a bit back into tl to take advantage of the interest rate for a while but the uncertainty puts paid to that. Getting sod all in the UK doesn't help.

I always get it wrong . I put some in about 10 days ago at 10.4 and was patting myself on the back yesterday. It's not looking that great a decision now given today's event.

I was told yesterday that one bank is offering 22+% interest. It is just if that can beat the inflation over the coming months. Crystal ball where are you?

Like everyone else responding, I also always get it wrong with investments. My solution now with TL, is to leave it where it is, watch it grow and leave it to the kids

Analysts at TD Securities consider the Turkish lira may easily selloff 10-15%. “We expect the Asia open on Monday to experience a very sharp upside move in USD/TRY by 3-5% to around 7.50. Next resistance is in the 7.79 area (8 March high), but then we see a move above 8.00 very likely in the coming hours or days, depending on the countermeasures deployed”.

Reyntj wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Mar 2021 7:12 pm

Analysts at TD Securities consider the Turkish lira may easily selloff 10-15%. “We expect the Asia open on Monday to experience a very sharp upside move in USD/TRY by 3-5% to around 7.50. Next resistance is in the 7.79 area (8 March high), but then we see a move above 8.00 very likely in the coming hours or days, depending on the countermeasures deployed”.

A lot of that Guardian column made sense but then again it is the Guardian who thought Venezuela was the economy of the future. Also It's not unknown for companies to take a position on currencies or shares and then try to talk them up or down.

17% fall in early trading.......!!!!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 20November.

I think a lot of Japanese are long on the lira so they are closing out positions which has amplified the fall.

Unless Turkey carry out complete restructuring of their economic model they are doomed to continued currency weakness and eventual full capital controls.

Whilst Erdogan pulls the strings the necessary reforms cannot take place.

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Mar 2021 9:38 pm

Unless Turkey carry out complete restructuring of their economic model they are doomed to continued currency weakness and eventual full capital controls.

Five years you have been warning of capital controls being imposed by Turkey.

viewtopic.php?f=27&t=35454&p=172292#p172292

and in between search.php?keywords=capital+controls&te ... mit=Search

Good point Erol. Question is 8n a country that already imposes soft capital controls with many if its citizens holding foreign currency and interest rates at 19% and depleted foreign reserves having spent 100 billion what are the options moving forward if the Turkish lira losses continue...the fall today has been the biggest fall in 20 years!

Rate this morning is 11.16
It was 11.24 half hour earlier so has recovered a little. But, expect it will fall further once all markets open today.

Only 7 % now ! I think the earlier fall was exacerbated by thin trade and probably some Japanese retail traders who where long getting closed out.

There is talk of capital controls on Bloomberg but no surprise there as they do always have a go at turkey .

When will the rate change in the bank ATM's

erol wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 4:52 am

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Mar 2021 9:38 pm

Unless Turkey carry out complete restructuring of their economic model they are doomed to continued currency weakness and eventual full capital controls.

Five years you have been warning of capital controls being imposed by Turkey.

viewtopic.php?f=27&t=35454&p=172292#p172292

and in between search.php?keywords=capital+controls&te ... mit=Search

I presume you are aware that soft capital controls have been introduced over the past couple of years. Hard capital controls will be the inevitable result because Erdogan calls the shots and will not reform.

I can only say it as I see it and no-one is obliged to take any notice but I repeat I would not have anything but loose change in lira or a Turkish bank

Also, when I advised not to hold any lira in 2016 it was trading 4tl to the pound. It's now worth getting on for a third of what it was then.

My intention was to help people see the inevitable carnage.

And hard capital controls will be the end game.

Once again please in English and simple terms. Not all of us follow the money market or know what all the jargon means.

Why isn't XE reflecting these massive movements in the lire? Over the last 24 hours it shows a low of 10.019 to the pound and a high of 9.977 ?

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:35 pm

Why isn't XE reflecting these massive movements in the lire? Over the last 24 hours it shows a low of 10.019 to the pound and a high of 9.977 ?

The exchange app I use is alternating either side of 11tl to £.
Easycurrency exchange.

13roman58 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:40 pm

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:35 pm

Why isn't XE reflecting these massive movements in the lire? Over the last 24 hours it shows a low of 10.019 to the pound and a high of 9.977 ?

The exchange app I use is alternating either side of 11tl to £.
Easycurrency exchange.

XE is pretty accurate normally and has now updated. Looks like it was saving them up!

Chriswright03 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:25 pm

Once again please in English and simple terms. Not all of us follow the money market or know what all the jargon means.

A bit more meat on the bones here

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56479702

https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/a ... -currency/

Jus drawn from Iktisat ATM got 9.70

You'd think Erdogan would be getting the pattern by now.
Cut interest rates currency goes down.
Raise interest rates, currency goes up.
Get into a dick measuring contest with the biggest market on Earth, currency goes down.
Promote someone to overlook the economy that people have confidence in, currency goes up.
Promote someone to overlook the economy that no one has confidence in, currency goes down.

They can train rats with treats and punishments so you'd think he'd get the hang of actions and consequences.

terry2366 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 2:42 pm

Jus drawn from Iktisat ATM got 9.70

I think you'll find that when a currency is at it's most volatile then the gap between buying and selling rates increases. I'm sure if you then turned around and sold that lire you'd be looking at 11 something.

You got screwed

Chriswright03 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Mar 2021 12:25 pm

Not all of us follow the money market or know what all the jargon means.

Careful you've just put in a pretty solid CV for the next Central Bank Governor

The UK £ is strong on the back of vaccine roll out. Against the US$ and Euro sterling has gathered strength past weeks. The UK economy is deemed better placed to come out positively and more quickly from pandemic related recession. Investors will see this as a carpet bag scenario to make a quick profit. The loss of EU trade for the UK will only come onto the radar when the world economy enters recovery mode and world trade can pick up the pieces.
The TL remains a risky currency and is in little demand against the favourites. Turmoil in Turkey is not helping and internal decision to trade in Euros for exports further threatens the currency. TL volatility and the associated inflation and uncertainty has left many caught short. To invest heavily in TL particularly in TRNC banks is highly risky and should be avoided.