Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

Great news.

I just need to find a vaccine for sale now!

Strange that as earlier in the day reported on Yeniduzen: The Medical Association announced that it is not suitable for people who have received 2 doses of vaccine at this stage without quarantine. https://www.yeniduzen.com/tabipler-birl ... 37188h.htm

Guess that, as usual, economy overtakes health.

Same is going to happen in UK by the sound of it, waddo. BJ has suggested that Theatres and Nightclubs could be the first to open!

Yes the whole thing does not add up. I have seen other claims that they will vaccinate 300000 people by April but not giving an exact date . So about 10 weeks if you run that to the end of April. So vaccinating 300000 people will take 600000 doses. I know we have already received 100000 doses plus a small amount from the south. If we assume that they have been used ( not the case) that leaves a requirement of 500000 doses. I have also seen that they are saying they have a 50000 week capacity to vaccinate. So technically it's possible to vaccinate 500000 by the end of April. But also the current rate they are receiving vaccines of 100000 in the last month they would not receive anywhere nearly enough vaccines . So unless they start receiving 50000 a week every week until the end of April claims are nonsense.

My point is that they are planning to allow to in people without quarantine with large number of the community unvaccinated.

Those that have been vaccinated can still be carriers. More dangerous I think because they may not feel unwell.

Maybe, let them in if they have two vaccinations already, plus the extra 14 days waiting afterward, then use the 75000 rapid test kits at point of entry? If positive then off to quarantine and if not then free to roam - semi safely?

That's the way to go waddo, got to start somewhere but as you said, "semi safely".

"semi safely" equates to "sort of pregnant"

benjaminbutton wrote: ↑

Thu 18 Feb 2021 8:55 am

"semi safely" equates to "sort of pregnant"

The vaccine is not going to make you immune or immortal.
At some point they are going to have to take a leap and open up, we can't lock ourselves away until no-one on the planet dies anymore.
If you want to totally 100% de-risk your life then you are going to struggle to fly to and from TRNC or move around when you get there.

Suppose it is a matter of what would be considered an acceptable mortality rate?
I personally have no idea what that would be as every aspect of life has an element of risk.

If you care for your life in Cyprus don't go in a car or anywhere near a road - stay home and stay safe!

Reyntj wrote: ↑

Thu 18 Feb 2021 5:50 am

.....
My point is that they are planning to allow to in people without quarantine with large number of the community unvaccinated.

(i thought TRNC received 80k Sinovac doses (?) + EU supply...)

TR ordered 50m doses from Sinovac for... 2021, but not for 1st quarter 2021.
with a production capacity of 300m Sinovac doses it is not to be expected that TR will get much more and no alternatives (in big amounts) are ordered as well.
equally shared by population that would be approx 380k doses (190k patients) for the TRNC for 2021.

TR vaccinated till today 6m, mainly first shot.
again, equally shared that would be approx 27k doses for TRNC.

so, TRNC , it seems, gets more as "their share" (and this only can be a political decision), but, till today, still not sufficient to vaccinate 300k in 2021. maybe the plan is to get some more from EU and UK
also, 300k (75% of the population) might be not sufficient for herd immunity with the Sinovac vaccine....

Yes I made a mistake 80k so far not 100 k. At this rate it will take 6 to 7 months more for 2 shots for 300k people.

Dang wrote: ↑

Thu 18 Feb 2021 2:23 pm

Suppose it is a matter of what would be considered an acceptable mortality rate?
I personally have no idea what that would be as every aspect of life has an element of risk.

An acceptable mortality rate has to be or based on the average normal mortality rate over 5 years.

In the meantime........very encouraging that the UK will give away spare doses....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120

Very good of the UK indeed just don’t expect any to come here, the Greeks would definitely complain and have that stopped! Nice to think that my taxes are going to help people who really need help!

Deniz1 wrote: ↑

Thu 18 Feb 2021 7:14 am

Those that have been vaccinated can still be carriers. More dangerous I think because they may not feel unwell.

Apparently not according to the latest data.......

From the online Telegraph..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... y-freedom/


Here's the text for those without a subscription..


"Vaccines appear to cut Covid transmissions and infections by two-thirds according to the first "real world data" examining their impact, The Telegraph can disclose.

Key data being handed to Boris Johnson as he finalises a roadmap out of lockdown shows that just one dose of either the Oxford or Pfizer vaccines has such an effect on all age groups.

Mr Johnson and his scientific advisers are expected to examine key findings showing the impact of the jabs on transmission, infection, hospitalisations and deaths.

Whitehall sources said the studies would be a crucial part of deliberations over Britain's route out of lockdown and that all the findings so far were "very encouraging".

Separate data shows that Covid cases are falling most rapidly among the oldest, with care home outbreaks almost halving in a week.

The statistics appear to vindicate Britain's strategy of vaccinating by age order, with cases among those over the age of 80 falling by 38 per cent in seven days.
How cases have fared since the third week of mass vaccinations

On Monday, Mr Johnson will publish his roadmap out of restrictions, expected to start with the return of schools from March 8 before any relaxation of rules on outdoor socialising and the reopening of shops, pubs and restaurants.

It comes amid pressure from Tory backbenchers for a speedy easing of lockdown restrictions.

Behind the scenes, Matt Hancock is among those understood to be pushing for an earlier timetable. Last week, the Health Secretary told The Telegraph that drugs and vaccines represent "our way out to freedom", having earlier said that Britain could enjoy a "happy and free" summer after millions have been vaccinated.

Meanwhile, the British Medical Association is calling for a "near-elimination" of Covid from the UK before any significant easing of restrictions.

More than 16 million people in the UK have now had their first vaccine, including 99 per cent of those aged 75 to 79 and more than 93 per cent of those aged 80 and over.
Is the UK on track to hit vaccination targets?

Key studies led by Public Health England (PHE), involving around 40,000 healthcare workers and 9,000 care homes, will not be published until towards the end of this month. A PHE spokesperson said: "We have been analysing the data since the start of the vaccination programme rollout and will publish our findings in due course."

But the Prime Minister is expected to be given early findings which suggest that both the Pfizer and Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccines have a powerful effect in cutting the spread of Covid.

There is already increasing evidence to show that the vaccines stop people becoming infected with the disease, cutting hospitalisations and deaths.

But the latest data from PHE will show that, critically, just one dose of either vaccine appears to block transmission of the virus by around two thirds in all age groups. The finding is crucial to efforts to lift Britain out of lockdown as the vaccination programme is ramped up.

The bulk of the latest data being handed to the Government relates to the Pfizer vaccine, which began to be administered in December. But the same effect was seen in a smaller set of findings relating to the Oxford jab, which has been administered far more widely despite its rollout beginning later.

Despite concerns about the effectiveness of the Oxford jab in older people, findings were similar in all age groups tracked. Last week, the the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended the Oxford vaccine for the over-65s and backed Britain's decision to space doses by up to 12 weeks after a number of countries refused to give the jab to older people.

A Whitehall source said the new data was "very encouraging" and in line with findings from clinical trials. Last month, a study by Oxford University found a single dose of the AstraZeneca jab cut transmissions by 67 per cent, with no hospitalisations recorded.

Mr Johnson is expected to pore over the data over the weekend, along with Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, ahead of a meeting of the Cabinet's coronavirus operations committee to agree the route out of lockdown.

On Thursday night, a senior Government source said "no firm conclusions" on vaccine efficacy had been passed to ministers, adding that data was "still being gathered".

Covid infection rates are now halving every two weeks, and on current trends daily cases will fall to 1,000 by mid-April. Infection levels have fallen by more than two thirds since January, according to the React study led by Imperial College London.

On Thursday, Baroness Dido Harding, the head of NHS Test and Trace, announced job cuts for its call handlers as a result of declining levels of infection. In an email, she wrote: "As a result of the decreasing levels of prevalence, NHS Test and Trace are reducing the size of the contact tracing workforce.

"As prevalence levels decrease, the profile of the tracing workforce will change from volume contact tracing towards supporting enhanced contact tracing and outbreaks."

The new figures show the number of outbreaks in care homes fell from 320 to 181 during the week ending Feb 11. It follows the rollout of vaccinations to all eligible care homes for the elderly by the end of last month.

The statistics show that, for people aged 80 and over, the rate of Covid cases fell from 208 per 100,000 to 129.6, a drop of 38 per cent. Levels for those in their 70s fell by 35.6 per cent, with a reduction of 31.2 per cent for those in their 60s.

Meanwhile, two international studies suggested that one dose of the Pfizer vaccine offers protection of at least 85 per cent. Scientists in Israel said the findings endorsed the UK approach of administering jabs up to 12 weeks apart. An analysis of documents submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration suggests efficacy rates of 92.6 per cent at first dose.

Despite the promising vaccine news, it is understood that Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor is preparing to extend the furlough scheme until the summer and offer businesses another six-month suspension of rates.''

So, according to the latest data, of the three people in front of you only one of them is a suicide bomber? Not that encouraging I must say!

How do you correlate someone who might be positive for CV19 with a suicide bomber? That is a ludicrous comparison...

CPFC, ludicrous it may well be, it depends on how much you value your life I suppose. Provided you would be happy to do so then just ignore the idea, for myself I consider a Covid carrier/spreader just as dangerous as a suicide bomber, in fact more so, as they can safely wander through the world spreading a virus as they go, whereas a suicide bomber is restricted by the amount of explosive they can physically carry and once used becomes totally safe thereafter - lol!

But, if you do not like the comparison then give me one of your own. One that will open peoples eyes to the dangers of Covid of course, a virus that is invisible to the eye but can be deadly not only to the carrier but to anyone they come into contact with would be good!

So standing in close proximity to a suicide bomber who detonates their explosive device is comparable to someone who might have CV as identified through a PCR test?

I am sorry Waddo but that is plainly ridiculous- IF the person with CV is actually a carrier and IF you actually catch it from them your chances of survival are extremely high (not sure of your age or health) compare that the being next to the bomber.

Please get some perspective..

I agree with Waddo , but a covid 19 carrier can constantly move around the community infecting and ultimately killing innocent people.
That's how a direct member of my family died on new year day.

13roman58 wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Feb 2021 3:55 pm

I agree with Waddo , but a covid 19 carrier can constantly move around the community infecting and ultimately killing innocent people.
That's how a direct member of my family died on new year day.

Sorry to hear this, but how did you know?

Sorry to hear this, but how did you know?
[/quote]
My father in law was shielding at his home.
Some ar#hole 30 miles away got infected, gave it to his son who went to school then others got infected, one of which is my wife's cousins son, who gave it to his father who gave it to his father, who was my father in law,s carer, Bingo.

That’s terrible and amazing how it travelled around.

So now it's proposed to allow anybody who 'proves that they have had the two jabs can wander around,!!

13roman58 wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Feb 2021 5:05 pm

...
Some ar#hole 30 miles away got infected ...

That is offensive to me.

Individuals who become infected do so by accident not through intent - unless part of the research programme.

IMHO you should not refer to an infected person using such language no matter the tragic later consequences for a member of your family.

13roman58 wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Feb 2021 5:05 pm

who was my father in law,s carer, Bingo.

How old was your father in law?

waddo wrote: ↑

Fri 19 Feb 2021 5:42 pm

So, according to the latest data, of the three people in front of you only one of them is a suicide bomber? Not that encouraging I must say!

If that's what you got from reading the latest scientific data on transmission following a vaccine then I am astounded.

Without going into suicide bombers which is a bit of an analogy. I can see how you might be carry covid unknowingly but not strapping a bomb to you unknowingly. Where are we getting 1 in 3 from? Apparently there have been 4.1 million cases in the U.K. which is about 1 in 16. Of the 4.1 million apparently 120,000 have died which is 1 in 34 but realistically it is 120,000 out of 66.5 million which is 1 in 554.
We do have to bear in mind 1.6 million of the U.K. population are 85 and over, 12 million are over 65 which is roughly around 630,000 of each age.

Hedge-Fund, It is in message 17 above (Vaccines appear to cut Covid transmissions etc, etc), I did not look further for more proof of this.

ETS, If vaccines cut transmission rates by two thirds, then two out of three people (2 thirds) would not pass on Covid - yes or no?
That would mean that one in three people WOULD or COULD pass on Covid - yes or no?

Glad that you saw it as an analogy which is exactly what it was meant to be - to highlight the risk of catching.

It is not a good anology at all Waddo - the risk of dying from close proximity to a suicide bomber is probably close to 100% - the risk of dying should you catch CV is less than 1%.

CPFC, You are taking it to extremes and far to much to heart. Just how many bombers have you walked past in your life and not be blown up? Both things carry the same gamble and - with luck - neither of them will get you in the end.

You have still not provided me with an acceptable comparrison only given me the risk of dying should I catch Covid. Give me figures on the risk of catching Covid at the very least? Really a pointless exercise because in the end it is just a toss of the coin - you may catch it or not, you may get sick or not, you may die of it or not, that is life. All I am saying is be aware and limit - as far as possible - your own personal risk!

Stay safe out there.

Less than 0.2% of the UK population has died WITH Covid, most of them being over 80.
I reckon I have 20 good years of fitness left inshallah, so if I lock myself up for a year I have lost 5% of my active life for a much less than 0.2% risk.

Work it out for yourself, I reckon this hysteria over what is in reality a tiny risk if you are healthy.

Btw, the NHS website states 78,000 people a year die OF smoking.
In life years lost, I reckon smoking does more damage to human health than Covid and it happens every year. Smoking is wasting NHS beds and resources but no one ever mentions this.

waddo wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Feb 2021 6:08 am

ETS, If vaccines cut transmission rates by two thirds, then two out of three people (2 thirds) would not pass on Covid - yes or no?
That would mean that one in three people WOULD or COULD pass on Covid - yes or no?

Glad that you saw it as an analogy which is exactly what it was meant to be - to highlight the risk of catching.

The problem with covid is the lack of reliable data.
A year ago countries made quick decisions to buy them time because there wasn’t much data to make informed decisions. What's the transmission rate what’s the mortality rate etc etc.
A year on and the data is not that much clearer as countries have counted differently and the factors within countries are so different etc etc.

Waddo, you’ve made a basic statistic error there. In your theoretical queue at the airport. Unless the entire queue is made up of confirmed covid carriers then your chances of catching covid aren’t 1 in 3.

Based on the UK numbers, there have been 4.1 million cases in the U.K. which is about 1 in 16 of the population. So if the vaccine does cut the transmission rate by two thirds then you are looking at a queue of 48 people where 1 might potentially pass on the virus and 47 won’t.

Now depending on its success rate in cutting mortality rate that also improves your odds considerably, even if the vaccine only cuts transmission then you will now have a 1 in 1654 chance of dying from the virus.

A sentence you missed from your 2/3rds was “with no hospitalisations recorded” I read that as it cuts transmission by two thirds and also lessens symptoms. So what was hospitalising you or killing you is now not as serious.
So let’s say the vaccine also lessened symptoms in 67% of the cases to say the equivalent of a cold?
Now your airport queue has to contain nearly 5000 people to contain someone who may kill you.

Covid was never a global extinction event or anything like it. The vaccine or any vaccine will not eliminate its transmission or cure you of it but it should cut its transmission rate and its hospitalisation and mortality rate.
So you’re your chances of catching it were already fairly low, 1 in 16, now they are even lower at 1 in 50. Your chances of dying from it were very very low now they are even lower.

But if you have serious health problems or are extremely elderly then it might not take much more than a cold to kill you.
Bear in mind that the average age of a covid death was 82. The life expectancy in the UK is 83 for women and 82 for men.
So had we have had this vaccine from day one then theoretically less than 14,000 people would have died to date. It’s still a lot and one death is a tragedy but I think people are losing their minds over this a bit.
I think it is also exasperated by the lockdown. We sort of stopped life which had the knock on effect of stopping a lot of news. Covid for a long period wasn’t the main story it was the only story.

Completely taking covid out of the equation. Just under 1500 people died every day in the UK. If you know 125 people then statistically one of them will die this year.
So if you aren’t going to work, not many shops are open, no football is on, Eastenders has stopped too and you can’t even take the dog out for a walk and every day the papers print up 1450 people have died today it is going to get you down a bit.

While on the subject of terrorists and how to use statistics

If we look at 9/11 approximately 3000 people died because of the terrorist attack. At the time the planes hit there were approximately 18,000 people in the Twin Towers. So you could say 1 in 6 died?

50,000 people usually worked at the Twin Towers so you could say if you worked at the Twin Towers your odds of dying from a terrorist attack were slightly less than 1 in 17.

The Twin Towers had 200,000 visitors a day so if we, rather inaccurately said, 250,000 might have been in the Twin Towers when the planes hit the odds of dying were 1 in 83.

The population of New York in 2001 was 19 million so if you were a New Yorker then your odds of dying by a plane hitting your building were 1 in 6333.

The population of America in 2001 was 285 million so if you were an American then your odds of dying by a plane hitting your building were 1 in 95000.

Then you have factors that are difficult to quantify.
Of the 2977 casualties, 343 were fireman or 11.5%.
Now if they hadn’t have bravely attended and just stayed in their stations then you might say the casualties would have been 2634?
But by their bravery they undoubtedly saved many lives but how many is impossible to record so then we are stepping into the realms of guesswork.

waddo wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Feb 2021 6:08 am

Hedge-Fund, It is in message 17 above (Vaccines appear to cut Covid transmissions etc, etc), I did not look further for more proof of this.

ETS, If vaccines cut transmission rates by two thirds, then two out of three people (2 thirds) would not pass on Covid - yes or no?
That would mean that one in three people WOULD or COULD pass on Covid - yes or no?

Glad that you saw it as an analogy which is exactly what it was meant to be - to highlight the risk of catching.

I'll happily give you a pass on this because your posts are normally balanced, amusing and informed.

On this one however I think you've experienced a brain fart.

ETS. You wrote - "The problem with covid is the lack of reliable data.". Exactly, so the rest of your post is just pointless.
You then wrote in a following post - "While on the subject of terrorists and how to use statistics". We were not discussing this point anyway, but it did give you an a chance to change direction I suppose. However, I suppose you could continue in the same theme and "Suppose" you were living in Fiji when 9/11 happened, what would be your chances then and onwards and onwards. If you like to work in statistics it is an endless argument.

Hedge-Fund. You posted - "I'll happily give you a pass on this because your posts are normally balanced, amusing and informed. On this one however I think you've experienced a brain fart." Agreed - farrrpppp! It is the interpretation of the written word rather than the spoken word that really makes the difference I must try harder to be understood - lol.

Finished now - everyone must make up their own minds how safe they are in any circumstance and, more importantly, how their actions will affect others. Back to my dugout now to remain quiet.

waddo wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Feb 2021 1:35 pm

ETS. You wrote - "The problem with covid is the lack of reliable data.". Exactly, so the rest of your post is just pointless.

I used the same statics that you did really. I just illustrated that depending how you look at even the same statistics you get very different answers. Your 1 in 3 is based on everyone in the airport queue having covid and transmitting it which isn't going to be the case.

waddo wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Feb 2021 1:35 pm

You then wrote in a following post - "While on the subject of terrorists and how to use statistics". We were not discussing this point anyway, but it did give you an a chance to change direction I suppose.

Not at all, you mentioned statistics and suicide bombers I used a famous case of suicide bombers and the statistics and illustrate that you can change the numbers/odds considerably depending on what measurement you used. As for FIJI that isn't relevant to 9/11 but the number of people in the Twin Towers or New York or America could easily be used as part of a sum.

Waddo - happy to leave the point re bombers. I just feel that there is so much propaganda regarding CV which has created extreme levels of fear in people and linking the risk to suicide bombers will just increases the anxiety.

Anyway - lets move on...

It is rather startling that some continue to take a position that travel and leaving home is somehow okay for themselves.
The UK has been in lockdown twice. Yes its tough and most people are very sensibly adhering to it. Fines are justifiable and should continue. Too many are flaunting the law and people are dying. Given the global nature of the pandemic. The world will remain closed for some time to come. The UK is certainly well ahead of the game upon vaccination. 95% of the globe is still in the death zone.

The Virus and its offspring remains very contagious. TRNC should not open up and people should stay at home unless absolutely necessary. Some see the threat of death to themselves and others is not really important.

waz-24-7 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Feb 2021 12:13 am

It is rather startling that some continue to take a position that travel and leaving home is somehow okay for themselves.

Who has said that?
Is it something someone has actually said, or is it like your Brexit nonsense something that you wish someone would have said so you can recite one of your prepared monologues?

waz-24-7 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Feb 2021 12:13 am

Some see the threat of death to themselves and others is not really important.

Again who?
Some are naturally very nervous about this virus. some are a little more proportionate.

As you've been off the threads for a few days I can only guess Britain must be booming? If a shop in Pontefract had exported one less scone to France this week you would have taken the day off work to tell us wouldn't you?

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Feb 2021 11:04 am

waz-24-7 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Feb 2021 12:13 am

It is rather startling that some continue to take a position that travel and leaving home is somehow okay for themselves.

Who has said that?
Is it something someone has actually said, or is it like your Brexit nonsense something that you wish someone would have said so you can recite one of your prepared monologues?

waz-24-7 wrote: ↑

Mon 22 Feb 2021 12:13 am

Some see the threat of death to themselves and others is not really important.

Again who?
Some are naturally very nervous about this virus. some are a little more proportionate.

As you've been off the threads for a few days I can only guess Britain must be booming? If a shop in Pontefract had exported one less scone to France this week you would have taken the day off work to tell us wouldn't you?

Not sure if you are in the UK right now. The increase in fines and rule breaking paints a picture of the comments.
Others I have noticed are keen to leave home and fly to and from the UK from offshore destinations. Is such travel essential. I am uncertain.

Your courtesy remains somewhat lacking. Your references to Brexit are non sensical. Your antagonistic attitude does you no favours.