Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

1 GBP = 14.01 TRY this morning. Whats going on?

Erdogan

Soner wrote: ↑

Wed 17 Nov 2021 5:06 am

1 GBP = 14.01 TRY this morning. Whats going on?

Rarely £ / tl.
Always $ against tl ,or the value of gold and oil.

One way road for Turkish IR's which is down due to political intervention from Erdogan, whilst Inflation rages!

Apparently the latest fall is because of rumours of another interest rate cut. Why not, the last one went so well?

Follow this. https://poundf.co.uk/gbp-to-try-forecast

Petrol is going up again tonight too.

jayceebee wrote: ↑

Wed 17 Nov 2021 11:19 am

Follow this. https://poundf.co.uk/gbp-to-try-forecast

That is the one I look at to see what may happen. It is always a guess based on numerous things beyond my comprehension but then it is a well respected site. See 15tl to the pound is predicted mid December.

Cue now lots of threads on Social Media by Ex Pats bemoaning the price of Efes has gone up.

Solely down to President Erdogan's comments and Economic Policy.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/ ... n-comments

Safe to keep foreign reserves in Turkish banks?

Watch out for 'Capital Control'
Capital control represents any measure taken by a government, central bank, or other regulatory body to limit the flow of foreign capital in and out of the domestic economy. These controls include taxes, tariffs, legislation, volume restrictions, and market-based forces.

It's now showing at 14.69 TL to £ on Google. Surely interest rates will have to rise now to try and stabilise TL?

Revlout 14.60 this morning

As Mrs Thatcher said you can’t buck the market.

Trading at 14.15 spot rate at 12.40pm........Rates decision announcement at 2.00 pm.

Credit West gave me 14.163 this morning.

Turkey interest rate down to 15%.
More problems for TL.

Just hit 15

15.09 and still falling

15.18 within a minute

Wow £1 = 15.20tl it was 3.40tl when I left 6 yrs ago. My Sterling would of been worth nothing if I had converted it back at this rate to what I bought it at. Feel for the locals but hopefully it will bounce back.
Erdogan will make a few more Millions when it drops again being in the know I’m sure?

14.99 now so either the traders are taking their profits or Turkey is using/borrowing foreign reserves which they don’t have to try and prop it up.

Is turkey not due to pay back a massive loan? I’m sure I read somewhere they will need to go back to the world bank(like most countries do) but due to some speculation that someone’s health isn’t great. I think the money market will be like this until end of February. I may be wrong especially for the local community paid in tl. But 17 - 18 won’t be far away.

The purchase of a Spanish made aircraft carrier for Turkish deployment will make all the difference to the balance of foreign debt. A few shots at Gibraltar on the way home to the Black Sea picking up a few F-16 fighter jets on route and, he-ho WW111 !!!

Just in case anyone is interested Mr Pound is Mr 17tl this morning.

Well they may be Mr 18tl next week by the look of it.

So sorry for those here and in Turkey who are paid in Turkish Lira. In Turkey the base for workers is still less than 3000 TL per month and here about 5000 TL and with petrol, gas and other basics being imported it must be really serious for them. It seems Politicians who are voted in as 'Public Servants' are so self serving and selfish and believe they know better than everyone else. The elites, the rich are just immune to these fluctuations but to the poor it's about putting food on the table and keeping warm in winter !!

Oh yes the elite are here with a vengeance. Saw a (roughly) 17 year old, roaring up and down the by-pass this morning, the 4th time this week in a black, Ferrari. Only way I can guess his age through blacked out windows is because I saw him in car park of Ezic Premier a couple of weeks ago.

Brinsley wrote: ↑

Wed 17 Nov 2021 4:52 pm

Watch out for 'Capital Control'
Capital control represents any measure taken by a government, central bank, or other regulatory body to limit the flow of foreign capital in and out of the domestic economy. These controls include taxes, tariffs, legislation, volume restrictions, and market-based forces.

Capital controls is a question of when not if.

Does the Central Bank here in the TRNC have any say whatsoever in financial matters or does it have to follow slavishly what it is told by Turkey. I think the latter, but there may a few tweeks that TRNC is permitted.

Reading the statement by the Turkish President in the CT today it is obvious that he is 100% commited to reducing interest rates whatever the consequences. He states that it is for the benefit of his subjects..unfortunately he either doesn't realise or doesn't want to say that declining exchange rates means higher import costs and therefore higher inflation which hurts his population even more !! It seems that throughout the World leaders will repeat and repeat the same failed actions in the belief that someday they will work !!

Up the Reds. wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Nov 2021 12:38 pm

Reading the statement by the Turkish President in the CT today it is obvious that he is 100% commited to reducing interest rates whatever the consequences. He states that it is for the benefit of his subjects..unfortunately he either doesn't realise or doesn't want to say that declining exchange rates means higher import costs and therefore higher inflation which hurts his population even more !! It seems that throughout the World leaders will repeat and repeat the same failed actions in the belief that someday they will work !!

I think it was Albert Einstein who said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

It is a pretty much impossible feat to have interest rates below the rate of inflation and a declining value in your currency is inflationary.
You can’t stop basic laws of economics.

crikey, the remark about "his subjects" is a tad high handed isn't it?

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Nov 2021 12:59 pm

Up the Reds. wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Nov 2021 12:38 pm

Reading the statement by the Turkish President in the CT today it is obvious that he is 100% commited to reducing interest rates whatever the consequences. He states that it is for the benefit of his subjects..unfortunately he either doesn't realise or doesn't want to say that declining exchange rates means higher import costs and therefore higher inflation which hurts his population even more !! It seems that throughout the World leaders will repeat and repeat the same failed actions in the belief that someday they will work !!

I think it was Albert Einstein who said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

It is a pretty much impossible feat to have interest rates below the rate of inflation and a declining value in your currency is inflationary.
You can’t stop basic laws of economics.

Is there anywhere in the world where interest rates are above inflation?, None that i can think of.

The West's governments are all effectively bankrupt and inflating their way out of it seems to be the unspoken method.
Savers be dammed!

MVP wrote: ↑

Sun 21 Nov 2021 6:55 am

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Nov 2021 12:59 pm

Up the Reds. wrote: ↑

Sat 20 Nov 2021 12:38 pm

Reading the statement by the Turkish President in the CT today it is obvious that he is 100% commited to reducing interest rates whatever the consequences. He states that it is for the benefit of his subjects..unfortunately he either doesn't realise or doesn't want to say that declining exchange rates means higher import costs and therefore higher inflation which hurts his population even more !! It seems that throughout the World leaders will repeat and repeat the same failed actions in the belief that someday they will work !!

I think it was Albert Einstein who said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

It is a pretty much impossible feat to have interest rates below the rate of inflation and a declining value in your currency is inflationary.
You can’t stop basic laws of economics.

Is there anywhere in the world where interest rates are above inflation?, None that i can think of.

The West's governments are all effectively bankrupt and inflating their way out of it seems to be the unspoken method.
Savers be dammed!

MVP - very good observation and yes many western countries have near enough zero interest rates but inflation is higher.
In the case of the Lira , depreciation has occured due to many factors namely :
Geo political concerns , relations with the US and threat of sanctions , FX trades manipulation and certain European Banks betting against the Lira , increases in US treasury yields , US Dollar gaining ground, Federal reserve policies affecting emerging market loans / debt, Turkish economy and monetary policy decisions, outflow of investment from Turkey, People switching out of Liras to $ , Euros and Crypto .....There is a whole catalogue of reasons to be blamed for the Liras demise and these are a few i can think of (imho)

TL dropped 4.5% in an hour and forty minutes from 8am. He doubled down and dropped interest rates again lol

Just hit 16+ at 10.20 am - Markets clearly do not like Erdogans defence of his rate decision.

Saddique wrote: ↑

Tue 23 Nov 2021 9:21 am

Just hit 16+ at 10.20 am - Markets clearly do not like Erdogans defence of his rate decision.

Local market repricing every item this morning.

Spoke too soon

Soner wrote: ↑

Tue 23 Nov 2021 9:42 am

Saddique wrote: ↑

Tue 23 Nov 2021 9:21 am

Just hit 16+ at 10.20 am - Markets clearly do not like Erdogans defence of his rate decision.

Local market repricing every item this morning.

When they do reprice items, they increase them much more than the % drop in the Lira .
so certain shops actually do not lose out ie Mr Pound i have noticed reprices and always stays on top of the currency drop

It's a brave move by erdogan as he is effectively taking full responsibility for the action and the ensuing outcome.

Bought an Iron in Technogold this morning and as far as I could see all the price tickets have either been removed or in the case of irons been turned round. The lady pulls out the ticket, taken it to a bar coder and then comes back with a price. I've absolutely no idea how much the iron was marked up. I also looked at an Amazon tablet and was advised to buy soon as prices would be going up a lot!!

When something fails miserably just keep on doing it, sure to work in the end ??

Reyntj wrote: ↑

Tue 23 Nov 2021 11:20 am

It's a brave move by erdogan as he is effectively taking full responsibility for the action and the ensuing outcome.

Well you couldn’t say the charge of the light brigade wasn’t brave?
I think he is letting ego get in the way of common sense.

The markets are telling him what needs to be done but he won’t do it. He has only one card to play here but his ego won’t let him.

As it is against the law to criticise politicians here inTurkey and the TRNC thank Godthey can't read their minds ??

Should read 'our minds' !!

17.02 now

17.39