Referendum - Leave likely to win - GBP Down

[David]

I take it you voted remain then ....

[Mowgli597]

I take it you voted remain then ....

Nope! Nor OUT!

I'd have liked to have had a vote, but like many others I was disenfranchised.

[waz-24-7]

Keith
I am only going by the bbc telext service i just click on news index, business and markets, currencies, then tourist rates use it as a rough guide as i know if it says 3.9 then in NC it will be 4.1. Anyway whats the problem with everyone ?
We have a strong economy
We have a thriving country
We can look forward to less bureaucracy and interference from outside
We will soon be allowed to control how many migrants enter the country
Countries queuing up to trade with us
Who could moan about that, ... seems like a win win situation
Who could moan at that .... seems like a win win situation

David,
If that post was last Wednesday,
Most of your points would be spot on.
However the experts have been proven right.

Sterling has collapsed to a 32 year low.
The UK is under threat of break up.
A recession ( in my and expert view) is now almost inevitable.
RBS and Barclays bank stock trading was frozen today as the stock declined beyond control ( worse than in 2008)
Our PM has resigned.
Labour Party is in melt down,
BREXIT leaders have disappeared without trace.
The market shrunk again today with approx. £4 billion wiped of UK businesses today alone

However
We will soon be allowed to control how many migrants enter the country. Great!!

That will not put the clear losses back in your pocket.
It is now time to PAY PAY PAY. Just as the experts told us
Shame is. Its ALL of us that are forced into this self inflicted pain.
It took us 6 years to just get back into growth from the last recession. I think this one will be deeper and longer.

Should I expect other to PAY ... Yes I think it would be fair and proper.
I cannot fault your optimistic view but reality is coming home to roost with a hard and harsh pay back.

[David]

Waz
You are in serious danger of believing your own hyped up scaremongering, report back in a years time when they have had a chance to implement their plans, just what did you expect after a couple of days instant nirvana ?

[waz-24-7]

Waz
You are in serious danger of believing your own hyped up scaremongering, report back in a years time when they have had a chance to implement their plans, just what did you expect after a couple of days instant nirvana ?

David to an extent you are right.
I would say by Christmas the real damage will be more clear. In a year, yes. I predict we will be well into recession with a climb out dependant on how the UK wins trade and investment. 2020 is my guess with growth returning to 1% by 2022. Last Wednesday growth was at 1.7% after 6 years of hard work. All wiped out in 24 hrs.

Surely you can see now that the experts have been to date correct.
On the contrary to your nirvana point.
I think many BREXIT supporters thought it would be nirvana..... Shock and awe as they say in USA.
Are you not shocked with the declines to date. Experts and indeed myself forecast it . Even I am shocked with the depth of the first wave of the hit.
The PAY back has started and what is most disappointing is that it is all self inflicted.

I am somewhat angered that our economy has been sacrificed for what?
Who now steps up and accounts ?
Your optimism is indeed noble but you should prepare for the pain and develop your own survival strategy.

No not scaremongering. I was told that last week and look where we are 4 days later. The truth rings clear. Take expert advice where you can. Please

[PoshinDevon]

Brexit: Facts Not Fear - a short film by Toby Young.

If anyone has 10 minutes to spare just google the above or search on facebook for this short video. 

It was made before the vote took place and is one of the very few pieces that actually gave "facts" rather than fear.

We really were right to vote leave.....unelected nobodies who cannot be kicked out making laws that we have to accept, no way of vetoing laws which are against the interests of the UK, the move towards an EU state where the United Kingdom would be in the EU with no influence and so much more.

There are many threads on the forum with various titles all discussing Brexit in one way or another. Across them all I am reading what in general seems to be the same words, the same arguments albeit rearranged in a different order.

A very good, well made short documentary. Many will not watch, in fact I nearly thought why bother, but glad I did. I am not a mindless fanatic, little Englander, against the young or any other accusation. I just believe in democracy and whilst I may sometimes not like the outcome, accept the result. Nicola Sturgeon is more of a fanatic than me.

My glass is more than half full, the United Kingdom has taken a lead and if nothing else has shown the rest of Europe that there is another way. There is no way any country; even one with the influence of the UK, could help to reform the EU so leaving an organisation that refuses to listen to the people was the right choice.

[waz-24-7]

Brexit: Facts Not Fear - a short film by Toby Young.

If anyone has 10 minutes to spare just google the above or search on facebook for this short video. 

It was made before the vote took place and is one of the very few pieces that actually gave "facts" rather than fear.

We really were right to vote leave.....unelected nobodies who cannot be kicked out making laws that we have to accept, no way of vetoing laws which are against the interests of the UK, the move towards an EU state where the United Kingdom would be in the EU with no influence and so much more.

There are many threads on the forum with various titles all discussing Brexit in one way or another. Across them all I am reading what in general seems to be the same words, the same arguments albeit rearranged in a different order.

A very good, well made short documentary. Many will not watch, in fact I nearly thought why bother, but glad I did. I am not a mindless fanatic, little Englander, against the young or any other accusation. I just believe in democracy and whilst I may sometimes not like the outcome, accept the result. Nicola Sturgeon is more of a fanatic than me.


Thank you Posh.
Great we are all indeed better off.
The UK is not in turmoil. Sterling has not crashed Markets are all wrong. and Mr Cameron was only joking.
What does it take for some to see real facts?

A video made pre BRXIT now has no relevance.
I detect a desperate hope for reassurance.
The hope now for me anyway is that we can wangle a remain within the common market. I am certainly willing to meet my part of the cost.
How about you?


My glass is more than half full, the United Kingdom has taken a lead and if nothing else has shown the rest of Europe that there is another way. There is no way any country; even one with the influence of the UK, could help to reform the EU so leaving an organisation that refuses to listen to the people was the right choice.

[PoshinDevon]

waz,

Of course the short video is relevant. It was relevant pre referendum and it is just as relevant 5 days on.

It exposes how unelected bureaucrats working for the EU and who cannot be removed from office are making laws and legislation which is not in the interests of the United Kingdom. To make it worse the United Kingdom had virtually no
influence or veto.

No idea if you have found and watched the video, if you havent, it is only 10 mins long - take a look and if you still want to dismiss the facts and think it irrelevant then fine...........we agree to disagree.

[Geoff1131]

Well waz must be over the moon this morning as the FT has risen 2.2%. After waz's comments on the ' Have you seen the Brexit movie ' thread ( message 361 in the thread ' where he said the 2% drop in the market was ' A massive drop and represents £ billions ' The 2.2 % rise today must ease his concerns a lot ( but I bet it wont and he will soon be along with more doom and gloom!!!! )

[David]

Hey Waz
Market up today so all of your armageddon baloney seems to be scaremongering after all just think of how many people you have scared, shame on you.

[waz-24-7]

Hey Waz
Market up today so all of your armageddon baloney seems to be scaremongering after all just think of how many people you have scared, shame on you.

David
You are right. Mr Osbourne attempted to pacify the markets has had a minor positive effect.

I would like to say its all done and dusted. Afraid not the losses are still massive.
Worst possible was that yesterday our 40 yr old triple A rating has been down graded.
A sure fire sign of investment departure from our shores as risk has instantly risen.
Whilst markets and currency are critical response indicators you should look at the trend after any major event.
I am sorry that it remains very bad indeed.
How is Turkish lira today since last Wednesday. I have not looked?

Petrol is going up 3p per litre in UK already due to sterling weakness.. £1 buys less oil essentially.
Is it as bad as we all said? Is this what you expected please?
I think many have not even registered the economic impact. Many will simply not be interested.

You clearly are and I thank you for your input.

[woodspeckie]

Don't think you Waz contributes much to the economy you keep going on about, the amount of time you spend on Kibkom instead of working, you didn't answer my question when I asked if you had a life beyond kibkom.

[waz-24-7]

Don't think you Waz contributes much to the economy you keep going on about, the amount of time you spend on Kibkom instead of working, you didn't answer my question when I asked if you had a life beyond kibkom.

woodspeckie,
In my office right now and yes working.
Having a twin screen station allows me to multi task.
Contributing to the economy...absolutely.
Working to maintain a level of prosperity for customers , employees, the buisness and the UK in general.
My task is clear. Rather more difficult now but clear in strategy and direction.

Kibkom is generally an interesting forum and the participants on recent and current topics of debate clearly have a view and by enlarge I welcome their input.

[David]

Just heard on the news that the markets are up 40 Billion today looks like things are back to normal

[waz-24-7]

Just heard on the news that the markets are up 40 Billion today looks like things are back to normal

That's excellent news
On the same channel Mr Cameron was joking. Mr Farage has married Mr Johnson.
I am so relieved.

[Dalartokat]

Petrol on average in the UK this year(depending upon where you live) has been £1.01 a litre.
I was paying last year £1.40-45 so another 3 pence at the moment is not too much of a worry.

Taiwan has announced today that it is happy to trade with us.

This toing and froing of tit for tat could go on for a long while, but until everything is sorted and settled, that's how it's going to be, it's normal. Nobody knows for certain yet what is going to happen. I think positive, where there's a will there's a way.

[David]

Yes its onwards and upwards now on the path to prosperity and a better future for all

[waz-24-7]

Petrol on average in the UK this year(depending upon where you live) has been £1.01 a litre.
I was paying last year £1.40-45 so another 3 pence at the moment is not too much of a worry.

Taiwan has announced today that it is happy to trade with us.

This toing and froing of tit for tat could go on for a long while, but until everything is sorted and settled, that's how it's going to be, it's normal. Nobody knows for certain yet what is going to happen. I think positive, where there's a will there's a way.

darlokat
Thank you
your upbeat view is good.
However
Fuel prices this past year reflect the collapse of oil prices from $140 to $45 barrel. In fact fuel should have gone down a lot more. The rise this week is because of the collapse of sterling against the dollar which is the currency of oil.
Taiwan will certainly trade. We are a net importer and duty from Taiwan which is in fact china runs at average 8%. Buying stuff is easy, selling is rather more challenging.



A level of uncertainty has been replaced with fact. The experts and leaders and industrialists have been proven correct and I am cross about the suffering being inflicted on me and others by those that chose not to listen to advice and even now say. Hey its all really OK. The experts always get it wrong.
The disbelievers will tell us: Sterling has not crashed, The markets are not in turmoil. The UK credit rating has not really lost its triple A status. The UK is not on the verge of possible break up, Uk politics is not in melt down. Its all just scaremongering . I am sorry but most of these people with a few exceptions just do not have a clue or are totally blinkered or blind or all three.

[David]

Waz
TL up from 3.86 to 3.88 do you really know what you are talking about, are you David Icke in disguise ?

[waz-24-7]

Waz
TL up from 3.86 to 3.88 do you really know what you are talking about, are you David Icke in disguise ?

David are you suggesting everything is great after all?
Sell that to the UK population, government, industrialists, and credit agencies and get them to agree and I will eat humble pie.

[Geoff1131]

David, I think waz is Private Pike, and I claim my £1000. If he uses the same logic in running his business as he has shown on all his post on the forum I am amazed he still has a business ( that is assuming he actually does have a business )

[David]

Just looked on bbc business news,.. shares and pound continue to make gains .. pretty much as we were told really, initial dip then back to normal all this propaganda and talk of doom and gloom seems to be of load of tosh.

[turtle]

Waz is not Pte Pike.

Waz used to post quite a lot on the old "44" site and in those day if I remember correctly was a bit more sensible than now

[David]

Up to 3.91 now, seems like the apocalypse that Waz warned us about was rather short lived !!

[waz-24-7]

I am so pleased to hear we are back to normal....

I will not be eating humble pie based on these rather poor attempts to gloss over the clear damage done by BREXIT.

I will not list yet again the issues. I am absolutely certain that the PAY back has started.

Some clearly cannot or are not able to see it ...yet!!
Keep grasping at straws springs to mind.

Whilst no one is forced to make the horse drink the water. I cannot offer any sweet wine to repair the damage.

Choices have been made but 16 million plus people are now lumbered with the cost caused by decisions of the uninformed and leaderless who even now think it is all back to normal. I fear that these same people could possibly become the new right wing politics of the UK. What is sad also is that they do not even realise how right wing they have become.

[Keithcaley]

Up to 3.91 now, seems like the apocalypse that Waz warned us about was rather short lived !!

Erm.... To be fair, we haven't left yet - in fact we haven't even started the necessary procedures to initiate the leaving process!

[waz-24-7]

Up to 3.91 now, seems like the apocalypse that Waz warned us about was rather short lived !!

Excellent.
Can we all move to Turkey and capitalise on this excellent news.

I expect a level of stabilisation as often happens after a crash.
Sorry David but your understanding of Markets and economy appears just not up there with the experts.

[David]

You call that a crash ? merely a ripple on the surface.

[David]

FTSE 100 now up above pre brexit levels

[Geoff1131]

Some deep recession that was then.

[Mowgli597]

From the BBC News website - Reality Check

EU says no compromise on freedom of movement

European Union leaders have warned that the UK must honour the principle of free movement of people if it wants to retain access to the single market after it leaves the bloc.

• European Council President Donald Tusk said the UK could not pick and choose.
  
  The French and German leaders also made clear that the freedom of movement of EU citizens was non-negotiable.
  
  Immigration to the UK, particularly from poorer EU countries, was a key issue in the referendum campaign.
  
  Some campaigners for Leave sent a clear message that the vote was about controlling immigration levels.

Have Leave campaigners changed their tune?

The Reality Check team looks at some of the claims and promises made during the campaign by Leave campaigners who now appear to have modified their positions.

Immigration

• The campaign claim: Immigration levels could be controlled if the UK left the EU. This would relieve pressure on public services.
  
  The current claim: Immigration levels can't be radically reduced by leaving the EU. Fears about immigration did not influence the way people voted.
  
  Reality Check verdict: During the campaign, some Leave campaigners sent a clear message that the referendum was about controlling immigration. Some are now being more nuanced, saying the UK's decision to leave the EU would not guarantee a significant decrease in immigration levels.

Contributions to the EU budget

• The campaign claim: We send £350m a week to Brussels, which could be spent on the NHS instead.
  
  The current claim: The claim was a mistake, and we will not be able to spend that much extra on the NHS.
  
  Reality Check verdict: Some of those who campaigned for Leave are now distancing themselves from this claim. Some have gone as far as admitting that it had been a mistake.

The single market

• The campaign claim: Some on the Leave side suggested the UK does not need preferential access to the single market.
  
  The current claim: The UK should get preferential access to the single market but will not have to accept freedom of movement to get it.
  
  Reality Check verdict: The position has shifted from claims the UK could trade under World Trade Organisation rules to one which suggests the UK will continue to have preferential access to the single market, but at the same time having some control over immigration levels.

[waz-24-7]

From the BBC News website - Reality Check

EU says no compromise on freedom of movement

European Union leaders have warned that the UK must honour the principle of free movement of people if it wants to retain access to the single market after it leaves the bloc.

• European Council President Donald Tusk said the UK could not pick and choose.
  
  The French and German leaders also made clear that the freedom of movement of EU citizens was non-negotiable.
  
  Immigration to the UK, particularly from poorer EU countries, was a key issue in the referendum campaign.
  
  Some campaigners for Leave sent a clear message that the vote was about controlling immigration levels.

Have Leave campaigners changed their tune?

The Reality Check team looks at some of the claims and promises made during the campaign by Leave campaigners who now appear to have modified their positions.

Immigration

• The campaign claim: Immigration levels could be controlled if the UK left the EU. This would relieve pressure on
  public services.
  
  The current claim: Immigration levels can't be radically reduced by leaving the EU. Fears about immigration did not influence the way people voted.
  
  Reality Check verdict: During the campaign, some Leave campaigners sent a clear message that the referendum was about controlling immigration. Some are now being more nuanced, saying the UK's decision to leave the EU would not guarantee a significant decrease in immigration levels.

Contributions to the EU budget

• The campaign claim: We send £350m a week to Brussels, which could be spent on the NHS instead.
  
  The current claim: The claim was a mistake, and we will not be able to spend that much extra on the NHS.
  
  Reality Check verdict: Some of those who campaigned for Leave are now distancing themselves from this claim. Some have gone as far as admitting that it had been a mistake.

The single market

• The campaign claim: Some on the Leave side suggested the UK does not need preferential access to the single market.
  
  The current claim: The UK should get preferential access to the single market but will not have to accept freedom of movement to get it.
  
  Reality Check verdict: The position has shifted from claims the UK could trade under World Trade Organisation rules to one which suggests the UK will continue to have preferential access to the single market, but at the same time having
  some control over immigration levels.

Very well constructed and I agree.
The BREXIT voters too have been sold down the river.
Disbelief in the experts . Peddled a stream of mistruths.

[waz-24-7]

Some deep recession that was then.

Geoff,
The recession of 2008 lasted some 6 years of negative growth.
The latest next quarter forecast is -2%. last Wednesday the UK economy exhibited a hard earned 1.7% growth.
We must take a longer term view. Growth in the economy spells prosperity OR recession. The signs are not good. Single day movements are not indicative.

Now today we have heard of some rather decent change of tack regarding retention of single market access. BREXIT ruled this out as not needed. We can trade with the rest of the world was the line.
The EU today have clearly stated yes single market is there but with no exceptions free movement of labour. This could well be a manifesto pledge should there be a general election.

Hope? certainly , Milk and Honey? absolutely not.

[David]

Mowgli and Waz are the same person

[Groucho]

Very well constructed and I agree.
The BREXIT voters too have been sold down the river.
Disbelief in the experts . Peddled a stream of mistruths.

The experts.... predicted a fall in the GBP and the stock market- whoopy-doo! no one ever saw that coming!

Of course they did and of course it did...

I did not see one leave supporting expert predict anything other than that too... as it always happens, uncertainty is always taken advantage of by the money men - it's the easiest way for them to make quick killings because the certainty of a fall in these situations means they don't take any risk in betting against the pound..

To suggest that this somehow endows the so-called 'experts' with insightful skills not possessed of the rest of humanity is somewhat of a stretch. It's not big and it's not clever to claim special status because you guessed the same as everybody else... for heaven's sake stop crowing - it doesn't become you...

[Keithcaley]

Mowgli and Waz are the same person

I don't think so - their writing styles are markedly different, and Mowgli's use of punctuation is slightly less idiosyncratic than Waz's

[David]

Starting to feel sorry for Waz, its churning him up needs to chill out a bit and relax it was a democratic vote and the country will survive and in my opinion go on to be a prosperous and dynamic world leader, not everyones lives are centered around the financial markets and if house prices come down in the uk then surely that has to be a good thing especially for the younger generation.

[kibsolar1999]

David,
Ok, house prices down.. Get the pressure of the banks a bit off the poor people.. Understandable.
Meaning, many or all property prices are going down.... Say half.. Say from 300k to 150k in average?

Makes a 150k times 5 million properties = 750 billion.. And i believe this is calculated too low..
also all business properties and so on has to be calculated.. Say double or three times of this? 2 or 3 trillion?

But anyway.. All banks in the uk are bancrupt immediately..... Was or is that the vision of " the typical leave supporter who can value the facts"?

[David]

Property going down by half as you say in your example, your just jumping on the scaremongers bandwagon and saying the first thing that comes in to your head.

[Mowgli597]

Mowgli and Waz are the same person

I don't think so - their writing styles are markedly different, and Mowgli's use of punctuation is slightly less idiosyncratic than Waz's

At least we use punctuation, capital letters and mostly spel corectly

[Mowgli597]

A friend just sent this: <- (for those unused to punctuation, this is a colon!)

Jean-Louis Bourlanges, a French professor and one-time member of the European Parliament, neatly summed up the effect of the Brexit vote: "Before, the UK had one foot in and one foot out of the EU. Afterwards, it will be exactly the opposite."

[Keithcaley]

...and mostly spel corectly...

[scubadubaqueen]

Mowgli & Waz, perfectly presented from the BBC News Website. The Brexit voters will not get what they thought they were buying in to, whichever way it goes.

The only thing that has been achieved is now a very divided Britain, markets in turmoil all over, even friends fighting! This is horrible, but it really has highlighted to me how ignorant and easily led some people are, and many driven too by irrational grievances from times gone by. I can respect those who voted Brexit for their own well thought out reasons, and whilst the EU is not perfect, for the masses to be motivated by material mirroring images of Nazi propaganda that was truly sickening in likeness (so that was no mistake), and a red bus telling a bare faced lie about NHS Funding (sorry now deemed a mistake), it beggars belief! Then the Cornish people asked if they would still get their EU subsidies too after they had voted?

I ask myself the meaning of "We want our country back"?

Ah.... just read that Boris has pulled out of the leadership race, well I suppose he could not back up what he preached, so best to jump ship. And as for Nigel Farage, with his extremist right wing views gloating over his Nazi style poster, well what a complete and utter plonker.

People were fed a pack of lies. Borders? Take back your own Borders? To Dover I presume, well that would be fun with boat loads and lorry loads of illegal immigrants arriving on British shores! Right now the border lies in France!!!! And I am absolutely sure the rest of Europe would have been delighted to dump them all in lorries full of imports, and stick them on Eurostar. You see you can not have your cake and eat it.

Now perhaps the silly remarks will stop, the gloating, the comments such as "live with it". Yes we now all have to live with this mess post Brexit, but there are NO WINNERS, just at best a wake up call, so I suggest that those still partying for what they saw as "Independence Day" put their glasses away.

[PapaBravo]

Here is a report by an independent analyst. It covers pros and cons and shows, I think, that we are not doomed just yet.

Reality Check - What has Brexit done to the Economy?

The claim: The damage done to the economy has already been many times the value of the UK's contribution to the EU Budget.
Reality Check verdict: There may already have been an impact on the economy or the public finances but we do not yet have data showing that. The indicative cost of borrowing for the government has actually fallen.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne says that companies have already started cutting back on investments following the vote to leave the European Union. He may be right - we have not yet seen any data on this yet. But social media has been full of claims that the amounts lost already have been many times the value of the UK's annual contribution to the EU Budget.
The figure that was used throughout the campaign was that national income growing by as little as 0.5% less than it would have done if the UK had stayed in the EU would wipe out the money saved from not contributing to the EU Budget.
That's a good, clear comparison, because it's comparing how much the government gains with how much it loses.
We're not going to get any reliable figures on that for a while. Growth figures for March to June will be out on 27 July, but the referendum was really too late in the quarter for the result to make any difference, although uncertainty linked to the fact that the referendum was happening at all, probably will make a difference.
So we're unlikely to hear anything relevant about GDP until we get the first economic surveys indicating what the economy was doing in July - the purchasing managers' reports - and the single month estimates from the economic think-tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
So what has happened that we know about so far?
Credit ratings
The ratings agencies Fitch and S&P have indeed downgraded the UK's credit rating, meaning they think that lending money to the UK government is less safe than it was last week.
You would expect that to mean the government would have to pay more to borrow money - the Office for Budget Responsibility says that an extra one percentage point on the government's cost of borrowing would cost the exchequer an extra £8bn in 2019-20.
But in fact, what has happened is that the yield, or return, on government bonds (which is a good indicator of the interest rate the government would have to pay to borrow money) has fallen, because in uncertain times people look for relatively safe investments, such as government bonds.
So given the evidence so far, the interest paid on gilts (UK government bonds) will fall, saving the government money, although it is also likely that inflation will rise, which will increase the amount the government has to pay on loans linked to the inflation rate.
Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out that will also be offset by the government having to borrow more money as economic growth slows: "Overall the public finances will be in worse state and so debt interest will be higher. And in the long run rates might rise. But for now economic weakness seems to be accompanied by a fall in gilt rates as people look for safer investments."
What about stock markets?
There is no question that there were big falls in stock markets in the UK and around the world last Friday, although there have been considerable recoveries this week.
The FTSE 100 is less of an indicator of the state of the UK economy than wider indexes such as the FTSE 250, because it is dominated by multinational companies, many of which are more sensitive to commodity prices than to what is happening in the UK.
How does that affect the economy as a whole or the public finances?
There were figures around for the amount that the deficits of defined benefit pension schemes had grown - some people were comparing that with the EU Budget contribution, although it is not really a comparable figure, and the deficits will have improved somewhat in the last few days of recoveries.
The thing with share prices falling is that you only lose money if you sell your shares, so many of the losses have only been on paper. That's a problem for pension schemes that have to report current value, but other investors can hang on and see if anything improves.
One impact on the government is the effect on the value of its holdings in banks. The value of the government's holding in RBS and Lloyds Banking Group dropped by about £8bn, although it has recovered somewhat since.
Clearly that is only a paper loss, but it presumably delays the day when the government will be able to sell its stake.
What about the pound?
The pound has dropped considerably against the US dollar, less so against the euro.
That has not had a great deal of impact on the economy so far, although it is likely to stoke inflation in due course.
National income is reported in pounds so will not be hit automatically by a weaker pound, although it will suffer in comparison with other countries - the status as the world's fifth biggest economy may be threatened.

[waz-24-7]

Here is a report by an independent analyst. It covers pros and cons and shows, I think, that we are not doomed just yet.

Reality Check - What has Brexit done to the Economy?

The claim: The damage done to the economy has already been many times the value of the UK's contribution to the EU Budget.
Reality Check verdict: There may already have been an impact on the economy or the public finances but we do not yet have data showing that. The indicative cost of borrowing for the government has actually fallen.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne says that companies have already started cutting back on investments following the vote to leave the European Union. He may be right - we have not yet seen any data on this yet. But social media has been full of claims that the amounts lost already have been many times the value of the UK's annual contribution to the EU Budget.
The figure that was used throughout the campaign was that national income growing by as little as 0.5% less than it would have done if the UK had stayed in the EU would wipe out the money saved from not contributing to the EU Budget.
That's a good, clear comparison, because it's comparing how much the government gains with how much it loses.
We're not going to get any reliable figures on that for a while. Growth figures for March to June will be out on 27 July, but the referendum was really too late in the quarter for the result to make any difference, although uncertainty linked to the fact that the referendum was happening at all, probably will make a difference.
So we're unlikely to hear anything relevant about GDP until we get the first economic surveys indicating what the economy was doing in July - the purchasing managers' reports - and the single month estimates from the economic think-tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
So what has happened that we know about so far?
Credit ratings
The ratings agencies Fitch and S&P have indeed downgraded the UK's credit rating, meaning they think that lending money to the UK government is less safe than it was last week.
You would expect that to mean the government would have to pay more to borrow money - the Office for Budget Responsibility says that an extra one percentage point on the government's cost of borrowing would cost the exchequer an extra £8bn in 2019-20.
But in fact, what has happened is that the yield, or return, on government bonds (which is a good indicator of the interest rate the government would have to pay to borrow money) has fallen, because in uncertain times people look for relatively safe investments, such as government bonds.
So given the evidence so far, the interest paid on gilts (UK government bonds) will fall, saving the government money, although it is also likely that inflation will rise, which will increase the amount the government has to pay on loans linked to the inflation rate.
Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out that will also be offset by the government having to borrow more money as economic growth slows: "Overall the public finances will be in worse state and so debt interest will be higher. And in the long run rates might rise. But for now economic weakness seems to be accompanied by a fall in gilt rates as people look for safer investments."
What about stock markets?
There is no question that there were big falls in stock markets in the UK and around the world last Friday, although there have been considerable recoveries this week.
The FTSE 100 is less of an indicator of the state of the UK economy than wider indexes such as the FTSE 250, because it is dominated by multinational companies, many of which are more sensitive to commodity prices than to what is happening in the UK.
How does that affect the economy as a whole or the public finances?
There were figures around for the amount that the deficits of defined benefit pension schemes had grown - some people were comparing that with the EU Budget contribution, although it is not really a comparable figure, and the deficits will have improved somewhat in the last few days of recoveries.
The thing with share prices falling is that you only lose money if you sell your shares, so many of the losses have only been on paper. That's a problem for pension schemes that have to report current value, but other investors can hang on and see if anything improves.
One impact on the government is the effect on the value of its holdings in banks. The value of the government's holding in RBS and Lloyds Banking Group dropped by about £8bn, although it has recovered somewhat since.
Clearly that is only a paper loss, but it presumably delays the day when the government will be able to sell its stake.
What about the pound?
The pound has dropped considerably against the US dollar, less so against the euro.
That has not had a great deal of impact on the economy so far, although it is likely to stoke inflation in due course.
National income is reported in pounds so will not be hit automatically by a weaker pound, although it will suffer in comparison with other countries - the status as the world's fifth biggest economy may be threatened.

Well its certainly not reporting that we are flying high.
UK credit rating has in fact been reduced from AAA to AA+. That is bad. Result is that risk has increased so borrowing OR credit will cost more for businesses and consumers.
The drop against the US dollar as the world trading currency is more important than against the Euro.
A drop in share prices reflects the evaporation of money from the UK economy. £140 billion. ( 80 has recovered )
The report is aimed at consumers and not really the commercial world and the economy.

On another thread I have reported some possible positives as a partial remain is still on the table.
Until article 50 is submitted there is scope for discussion.
EU leaders are saying no discussion or negotiation until submission. I do not believe it. Behind closed doors there will be discussion but away from the masses. The Single market is key. The costs and what the UK will need to agree to is the issue.

I predict that by Christmas the picture will be very much clearer and strategy and path for partial remain secured. . The economy and political path will, by then be clearer and the UK economy with luck will have enough residual strength to carry through.
OR it goes absolutely pear shaped and we see the decline that many have forecast if we get total BREXIT.

Interesting times ahead.

[waz-24-7]

Here is a report by an independent analyst. It covers pros and cons and shows, I think, that we are not doomed just yet.

Reality Check - What has Brexit done to the Economy?

The claim: The damage done to the economy has already been many times the value of the UK's contribution to the EU Budget.
Reality Check verdict: There may already have been an impact on the economy or the public finances but we do not yet have data showing that. The indicative cost of borrowing for the government has actually fallen.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne says that companies have already started cutting back on investments following the vote to leave the European Union. He may be right - we have not yet seen any data on this yet. But social media has been full of claims that the amounts lost already have been many times the value of the UK's annual contribution to the EU Budget.
The figure that was used throughout the campaign was that national income growing by as little as 0.5% less than it would have done if the UK had stayed in the EU would wipe out the money saved from not contributing to the EU Budget.
That's a good, clear comparison, because it's comparing how much the government gains with how much it loses.
We're not going to get any reliable figures on that for a while. Growth figures for March to June will be out on 27 July, but the referendum was really too late in the quarter for the result to make any difference, although uncertainty linked to the fact that the referendum was happening at all, probably will make a difference.
So we're unlikely to hear anything relevant about GDP until we get the first economic surveys indicating what the economy was doing in July - the purchasing managers' reports - and the single month estimates from the economic think-tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
So what has happened that we know about so far?
Credit ratings
The ratings agencies Fitch and S&P have indeed downgraded the UK's credit rating, meaning they think that lending money to the UK government is less safe than it was last week.
You would expect that to mean the government would have to pay more to borrow money - the Office for Budget Responsibility says that an extra one percentage point on the government's cost of borrowing would cost the exchequer an extra £8bn in 2019-20.
But in fact, what has happened is that the yield, or return, on government bonds (which is a good indicator of the interest rate the government would have to pay to borrow money) has fallen, because in uncertain times people look for relatively safe investments, such as government bonds.
So given the evidence so far, the interest paid on gilts (UK government bonds) will fall, saving the government money, although it is also likely that inflation will rise, which will increase the amount the government has to pay on loans linked to the inflation rate.
Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out that will also be offset by the government having to borrow more money as economic growth slows: "Overall the public finances will be in worse state and so debt interest will be higher. And in the long run rates might rise. But for now economic weakness seems to be accompanied by a fall in gilt rates as people look for safer investments."
What about stock markets?
There is no question that there were big falls in stock markets in the UK and around the world last Friday, although there have been considerable recoveries this week.
The FTSE 100 is less of an indicator of the state of the UK economy than wider indexes such as the FTSE 250, because it is dominated by multinational companies, many of which are more sensitive to commodity prices than to what is happening in the UK.
How does that affect the economy as a whole or the public finances?
There were figures around for the amount that the deficits of defined benefit pension schemes had grown - some people were comparing that with the EU Budget contribution, although it is not really a comparable figure, and the deficits will have improved somewhat in the last few days of recoveries.
The thing with share prices falling is that you only lose money if you sell your shares, so many of the losses have only been on paper. That's a problem for pension schemes that have to report current value, but other investors can hang on and see if anything improves.
One impact on the government is the effect on the value of its holdings in banks. The value of the government's holding in RBS and Lloyds Banking Group dropped by about £8bn, although it has recovered somewhat since.
Clearly that is only a paper loss, but it presumably delays the day when the government will be able to sell its stake.
What about the pound?
The pound has dropped considerably against the US dollar, less so against the euro.
That has not had a great deal of impact on the economy so far, although it is likely to stoke inflation in due course.
National income is reported in pounds so will not be hit automatically by a weaker pound, although it will suffer in comparison with other countries - the status as the world's fifth biggest economy may be threatened.

[/quote


Doomed , probably not.
Better off? absolutely not.
Certainly not Milk and honey that BREXIT promised us either.
The report is very much for the consumer.
A business report would be rather different.
credit rating down so money will be more expensive.
Currency: benchmark is the US $ and sterling is well down
Bank stocks are the hardest hit and only recovered because of promise of support from BOE.

What of short and longer term forecasts. Growth, jobs and investment?

[David]

Waz
You wait until Theresa May gets in at least she will put Britain first, a great bed fellow for the leave voters.

[scubadubaqueen]

Waz
You wait until Theresa May gets in at least she will put Britain first, a great bed fellow for the leave voters.

It appears to me that the members posting uneducated posts on this forum, have never run a decent sized successful business in their life. I have read Waz's posts, and have to say that to have received so many insults just shows the educational level of most on here. You can not even debate in an intelligent manner.

You will not get the "Brexit" that you voted for, no matter who becomes party leader, end of. There are others way more informed who understand the issues that you do not, and even the marketeers who mis-sold you have now hidden behind closed doors.... This was no joke, and if you profess to be able to do something, then you sure as hell should say so with honest intent, have a plan, and be able to follow it through. .

We can not all be the same. Some are born with a silver spoon, others work hard to get up the ranks, whilst some are born in to poverty, and it is very hard for them to break free of that, but not impossible; The world is not an equal place, and if it were, it would not work. But the generation of wealth, whilst it might make who you see as the rich richer, this wealth filters down to the masses, and creates opportunities for the masses, who in turn spend their money, and so the circle goes around. It is very clear that living standards have improved for most people, and if you think back to what you had as a child, compared to what children have now, then there is your evidence.

I just hope that this fine mess can be sorted before too much damage is done, and yes there are changes that are needed within the EU that perhaps drove more moderate people to vote for Brexit, given the stark choice put before them, whilst many other abstained, not all because they were lazy. Waz is right about the US$ and you would be wise to heed his words, for he is only trying to explain to you from the goodness of his heart how all this will affect the masses if it happened, as mis-sold to the masses. He is clearly very thick skinned given all the goading.

[Hammerhead]

Get over it

[RAZR63]

This man speaks a lot of sense and he is not even English! https://www.facebook.com/adam.zillin/vi ... 566520402/

Time to move on and embrace our new country.