Article 50, Brexit

[thornaby]

Great news, time to celebrate, time to pull together and time for those who still protest against Brexit to give it a rest.

[woodspeckie]

Pass the message on to Waz I don't think he knows

[geroff]

Pass the message on to Waz I don't think he knows

[kibsolar1999]

yeah.. time to celebrate...
half the family sits in the garden and the other half inside.. and nobody knows what will be served from the kitchen.

so, start drinking, separetely of course.

the devision of the country is in full swing and you will cough a long time on that.

[geroff]

yeah.. time to celebrate...
half the family sits in the garden and the other half inside.. and nobody knows what will be served from the kitchen.

so, start drinking, separetely of course.

the devision of the country is in full swing and you will cough a long time on that.

Are you twin brother to Waz ? ...

Always been a division, its how the media portrays it ...

[Johnny Lee]

Maybe the remainers need to see this. I don't know how to publish it but this the link. https://www.youtube.com/embed/a-hPCne10qc.

[Johnny Lee]

It was sent to me by friends in America, it is Paul Weston, CPAC LIVE March 3rd 2016. . approx 13 minutes long .

[elizabeth]

This is well worth a read too
http://www.civitas.org.uk/publications/ ... le-market/

[erol]

It was sent to me by friends in America, it is Paul Weston, CPAC LIVE March 3rd 2016. . approx 13 minutes long .

Here is a link that works

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-hPCnel0qc


and here is the wikipedia entry for Mr Weston

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Weston_(politician)

Paul Martin Laurence Weston (born 1965) is a British far-right politician, the chairman of Liberty GB and a member of the Pegida UK leadership team. An activist and blogger, Weston joined the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in 2010 and stood as a Parliamentary candidate for Cities of London and Westminster. In 2011, Weston left UKIP and joined the now-defunct British Freedom Party with members of the English Defence League (EDL) and former members of the British National Party (BNP).[1]

For Liberty GB, he was a candidate for South East England in the 2014 European election[2] and for Luton South in the 2015 general election. He came last, with 158 votes (0.4%).[3]

He was married to an immigrant from Romania.[4][5] He was the President of the English branch of the International Free Press Society founded in 2009.[6]

[waddo]

https://www.youtube.com/embed/a-hPCne10qc hmmmm all it says is "This video is unavailable", as a remainer I found it to be a really good watch - lol.

[Keithcaley]

[woodspeckie]

You saying nothing Keith ?

[Keithcaley]

You saying nothing Keith ?

That's right - I'm saying nothing!

I reposted the YouTube clip using the forum facility because there seemed to be some difficulty in accessing it - not because I had any views on its content.

[waz-24-7]

OK
Into the unknown. New frontiers new issues and new problems. New opportunities.

The next 2 years are the first critical of many. How good will the UK negotiators be? My view is we are on the back foot for some time. The EU is much larger an economy and has all the trade deals already in place. The EU is now a competitor competing for work and business .
I do not think UK business is at all ready. Most are simply not familiar enough with world wide trade, tariff controls and even how to export across borders. Of course the demise of much employment law will assist UK businesses and perhaps many UK skilled workers from overseas will return to the motherland. Immigration policy must be published very quickly. The need for immigrant workers has been made abundantly clear yet te government will not lay out a policy.
That's the economy.
The future of the EU moving forward remains very important. Peace in Europe must be maintained and any further division will most certainly threaten the current peaceful position.

[kerry 6138]

Of course the demise of much employment law will assist UK businesses and perhaps many UK skilled workers from overseas will return to the motherland. Immigration policy must be published very quickly. The need for immigrant workers has been made abundantly clear

Where is the demise of employment law quote coming from?
You forgot to add employer's and government investing and training in your sentence about immigrant workers surely?

[Dalartokat]

If your able to listen to this( and are interested), Julia George of Radio Kent, invites people who already live in UK and are from Europe and outside of Europe, to give their opinions of how they feel Brexit will affect them. First 4 minutes taken up with news and weather.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04wt7yp#play

[journey1]

Theresa May will go down in history as an unelected Tory PM who will lead the break up of the Uk

[waz-24-7]

Of course the demise of much employment law will assist UK businesses and perhaps many UK skilled workers from overseas will return to the motherland. Immigration policy must be published very quickly. The need for immigrant workers has been made abundantly clear

Where is the demise of employment law quote coming from?
You forgot to add employer's and government investing and training in your sentence about immigrant workers surely?

Kerry,
Did you not pay attention to Frances O grady , General secretary of the TUC during BREXIT campaigning. She campaigned vigorously to REMAIN. On the basis that employment rights of UK workers were set into EU employment law and the loss after BREXIT would put millions of workers in a more vulnerable position.
Such legislation soon to be filed to the bin. Who knows what new UK employment law will transpire. Possibly that of 1973!! Without doubt the conservative government will air on the side of employers.
I certainly support training and government investment. This will follow presumably after the £1000s millions required to write implement and administer the multitude of new legislation following the binning of any EU legislation.
Whoever thought BRREXIT would have no cost!!

[turtle]

Waz
You're at it again ?
Obviously you do not pay attention of what is going on...... Read the Great Repeal Bill then apologize to Kerry.

[waz-24-7]

Waz
You're at it again ?
Obviously you do not pay attention of what is going on...... Read the Great Repeal Bill then apologize to Kerry.

The bill has not even got to white paper (proposal status yet !! Do please turn the lights on or put your glasses on!!

The Great Repeal bill remains an unknown entity. (Mrs May has not even announced or presented the white paper proposal yet!! ) with no clear indication what EU legislation will be retained. Certainly employment law does not appear to be mentioned and even if it was. Expect big business to lobby vigorously for UK law NOT EU. EU employment law is too employee biased. Rest assured the financial implications to implement new UK legislation will be massive and on going. The contributions into the EU fund were for such services and there are many. The cost of a stand alone system will be crippling for many years to come.

Furthermore, Did we not leave the EU to regain control. Am I to believe that in fact we want to retain EU legislation via the said Repeal Bill? ( possibly)
I think many would oppose a degree of cherry picking. Not sure how the European courts would line up either.

[turtle]

Initially ALL laws made over the last 40years will be brought over.... I will put money on it...

Stop scarmongering again !

[waz-24-7]

Initially ALL laws made over the last 40years will be brought over.... I will put money on it...

Stop scarmongering again !

Well that's a frightening thought.
So Why did we even leave the EU!! Take back a little bit of control possibly!!

Not scaremongering...Just enlightening what should be considered or even what should have been considered and was not.

[turtle]

Waz
Have a word with yourself man
The last thing the government will want to do is start changing laws at the first step.......bigger fish to fry

[waz-24-7]

Waz
Have a word with yourself man
The last thing the government will want to do is start changing laws at the first step.......bigger fish to fry

No Of course.
However the task is massive as indicated in the reform bill article.
There is tremendous change to be organised and yet again the government are unable to publish a plan.

The departure from the EU after 40nyears has never been done and my belief is that the UK is not prepared , financed or ready to undertake the task. It never was and UKIP and all the remainders new this well. The fact was not sold to the British public correctly and the same lapped up the well financed and marketed UKIP campaign. Shame on Cameron and more so Corbin for failing.
Furthermore the vulnerability of a country so uncertain and without clear direction is one floating in shark infested waters.
The likes of China, India, EU , and USA who are far more stable and ready to compete will feed well until the UK gets organised and gets out there. The losses to that point in the future will cost. How dearly? next 24 months will show.

[kibsolar1999]

the bazaar is open, 24/7, from today onwards.

starting with: how much the UK ows the EU? 20,40,80 billion?
or nothing? not even london says that (to brussels, not to the british people of course...)

20.000 laws and regulations... must be reviewed, cancelled and-or replaced. when you take in consideration, say, a "net working time" of 1.5 years, it comes to 36 a day. just the many to be formed "working groups" will cost a fortune.

any new agreement must pass national parliaments of all 27 member states and they will not accept any "disadvantages without a reason".
and why should they? why the 42 million british tourist to the EU , the 1,2 million UK citizens working in the EU and 400.000 british expats in the EU do not need a visa, but a polnish cleaning lady in the UK needs one (total 3,2 million EU citizens work in the UK).
thats discrimination, the polish would say, and they a very sensible about these matters...
why should hungary agree that the UK gets access to the common market, but the UK does not grant the same for hungary?

to do all this "tidy", the EU wants to "first agree on the divorce, then talk about about new agreements", london wants to "first talk about new agreements and then about the divorce matters". this will not work.
the EU can do it "slowly" to please all its memberstates, the UK has "time problems" to achieve "promised results".
so, the UK already did start to threaten the EU, eg about "security matters in Europe" (in yesterdays article 50 letter, May-EU)
"very likeable" eg, Estonia and Latvia would say... you can be sure, they will be your "new friends".

it is to be expected that the brexit will not be only "hard", it may become "dirty" as well, with no agreement reached in 24 month. then, on 29th of march 2019, the UK is not a EU member any more and must be treated as such. "model Botswana" as Brussels say.
then your fishermen can empty the north sea , but the 80% exports get stuck on the EU border and soon we get a new "cod war"...
and this will be not the "biggest problem"...
a bright look-out for europe.

[Groucho]

BBC Today...

"The government will set out how it plans to remove EU law from the statute book later by publishing details of its Great Repeal Bill.
Having formally triggered Brexit, ministers are promising a "smooth and stable transition" with legislation ending the supremacy of EU judges.
It will also incorporate thousands of pieces of EU law into UK legislation.
The publication comes the day after the UK started two years of talks using Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty."

[kerry 6138]

Prime Minister's statement yesterday after delivery of the article 50

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 55931.html

pay attention waz.

We seek to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states as early as we can. That is set out very clearly in the letter as an early priority for the talks ahead. 

We will ensure that workers’ rights are fully protected and maintained. Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers, we will build on them. 

[woodspeckie]

Pointless talking to Waz he's got blinkers on and has gone deaf.

[kibsolar1999]

kerry 6138
well, maybe waz is deaf for that what a PM ( May ) said in parliament, but maybe he can read.

and thats what T.May wrote to the EU:
“There is obvious complexity in the discussions we are about to undertake, but we should remember that at the heart of our talks are the interests of all our citizens. There are, for example, many citizens of the remaining member states living in the United Kingdom, and UK citizens living elsewhere in the European Union, and we should aim to strike an early agreement about their rights”

[thickey]

I'm afraid to say the Europeans are going to go to town on us, and we could well be begging to get back in.Two year from now

[journey1]

Move to Scotland!

[Groucho]

I'm afraid to say the Europeans are going to go to town on us, and we could well be begging to get back in.Two year from now

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade. They are sabre rattling and they know it - which is why some EU-crats are making less confrontational overtures. What they are really scared about is more countries realising that the EU is a poisoned chalice.

[waz-24-7]

Prime Minister's statement yesterday after delivery of the article 50

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 55931.html

pay attention waz.

We seek to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states as early as we can. That is set out very clearly in the letter as an early priority for the talks ahead. 

We will ensure that workers’ rights are fully protected and maintained. Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers, we will build on them. 

Kerry,
Worker rights have never been so good under the EU as preached during BREXIT by the TUC general Secretary. Today the vast task of revamping UK statute and Law commenced. It appears that maybe a high degree of "cut and paste" will take place. Many will not like this given the "take back control" slogan. What is certain is that there will be considerable political wrangling over what is to be set in statute. Employment law, which I believe is close to your heart will be one such matter of contention. Workers rights in the UK have moved drastically in favour of EU workers (UK included). Business and employers will certainly seek to turn the tide back to regain some employer rights. After all the opportunity is now there, Mrs May as a politician has promised the earth on rights. I think as ever the ability to deliver politically will be contested with vigour in parliament before the statue books are ratified as law. I expect much legislation to take many years to get on the timetable, be debated and eventually ratified.

[waz-24-7]

I'm afraid to say the Europeans are going to go to town on us, and we could well be begging to get back in.Two year from now

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade. They are sabre rattling and they know it - which is why some EU-crats are making less confrontational overtures. What they are really scared about is more countries realising that the EU is a poisoned chalice.

Do not think for a moment that the Union of 27 countries are doomed because of BREXIT. Todays meeting in Malta has bolstered the Union to move forward from BREXIT. The EU will prepare forward strategy too. I believe indeed Europe will become a stronger Union in coming years and will be a trade competitor to the UK. The strength of UK exports will in my opinion be a diminishing issue as the EU seeks, just like the UK, other avenues of opportunity.
I firmly believe the EU will soon move forwards from Brexit. Probably faster than the UK given infrastructure and trade deals and in place and the union is open for business. In addition, I have a concern how Europeans will look upon Uk citizens given that we have selected to divorce them. Racial unrest was clear in the UK for some weeks after the referendum. I think many Europeans will hold our decision against us and will label UK workers and even tourists as less desirable. It works both ways!!

What I also believe is that BREXIT has shaken the EU tree and reform is now highly more likely and indeed possible. It would be stupid for anyone to register a desire for EU failure except possibly Mr Putin and Mr Trump. A divided Europe is a weakened Europe and weakness is not at all desirable in the modern world of national borders

[turtle]

What I also believe is that BREXIT has shaken the EU tree and reform is now highly more likely and indeed possible.

If only that happened 18 months ago...... Reckless EU...and a hideous gambler

[waz-24-7]

What I also believe is that BREXIT has shaken the EU tree and reform is now highly more likely and indeed possible.

If only that happened 18 months ago...... Reckless EU...and a hideous gambler

Agreed on that one certainly.

[erol]

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.

The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.

Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.

Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)

[waz-24-7]

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.

The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.

Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.

Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)

Very well put Erol,
So many people have taken the view that the EU is a failing and dead duck. The risk to the UK is much bigger than many have estimated or probably guessed. Certainly initially the EU may suffer somewhat should negotiations go badly.
However the EU is far far better placed to recover and leave the UK high and dry. I am certain , Mr Spain, France, Germany etc will soon actively seek to entice, for example, car manufacturers to up sticks from UK and set up in the EU economic union where they can export, sell and capitalise unhindered on the lucrative EU market. I note just today. Lloyds of London ( insurance) are opening trading centre in Brussels
We should not at all underestimate the resolve and strategy that the Union will formulate to compete with the UK,
Europeans are not the idiots that many think they are.

[kerry 6138]

Prime Minister's statement yesterday after delivery of the article 50

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 55931.html

pay attention waz.

We seek to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states as early as we can. That is set out very clearly in the letter as an early priority for the talks ahead. 

We will ensure that workers’ rights are fully protected and maintained. Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers, we will build on them. 

Kerry,
Worker rights have never been so good under the EU as preached during BREXIT by the TUC general Secretary. Today the vast task of revamping UK statute and Law commenced. It appears that maybe a high degree of "cut and paste" will take place. Many will not like this given the "take back control" slogan. What is certain is that there will be considerable political wrangling over what is to be set in statute. Employment law, which I believe is close to your heart will be one such matter of contention. Workers rights in the UK have moved drastically in favour of EU workers (UK included). Business and employers will certainly seek to turn the tide back to regain some employer rights. After all the opportunity is now there, Mrs May as a politician has promised the earth on rights. I think as ever the ability to deliver politically will be contested with vigour in parliament before the statue books are ratified as law. I expect much legislation to take many years to get on the timetable, be debated and eventually ratified.

I guess you're not on a zero hour contract then waz.

[Brend]

neither are the Brits as stupid as you think we are waz!!

[Groucho]

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.

The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.

Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.

Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)

The point I was making is that the UK is a net importer from the EU by a massive margin - with the rest of the trading world it's not the same story.

If we swallow 16% of the rest of the EU's total exports (figures handily provided by the remain camp but nicely hidden well down in the financial case for remain. hoping we didn't spot them - idiots!) then that only leaves 84% split between the other 27 member states or approximately 3% each - i.e. they need us more than we need them - so what are they going to do - punish us by refusing to sell us stuff?

[PoshinDevon]

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they do - given that the UK is a net importer from the EU... they have more to lose in trade.

The UK is a net importer of goods - which have the backstop of wto rules in the absence of any other trade agreement but the UK is a net exporter of services that have no such 'backstop'. If things were to go really bad in negotiations and the UK takes the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' option , the EU would still be able to export their cars and other goods to the UK and the UK would be limited by wto rules on how much duty they could apply on these cars or other goods, but the EU could put any duty they like on UK service exports or even ban them completely.

Even ignoring that it seems to me you are overlooking the part that the relative sizes of the two entities plays. If you calculate the value of exports and imports relative to say the GDP of the UK and the GDP of the EU respectively, or their population sizes then I personally think that gives a clearer indication of who is most affected by the potential loss of trade, in goods or services, post Brxeit. The value of the UK's exports to the EU represent around 13% of the entire UK economy and 44% of its total world wide exports. The value of the EU's exports to the UK represent around 3-4% of the entire EU's economy (without the UK in it) and around 12% of its word wide exports.

Drop a brick into a bath and the effect is quite dramatic. Drop a slightly larger brick into a swimming pool and the effect is a lot less dramatic, even though the brick may be a bit larger (220 vs 290)

Very well put Erol,
So many people have taken the view that the EU is a failing and dead duck. The risk to the UK is much bigger than many have estimated or probably guessed. Certainly initially the EU may suffer somewhat should negotiations go badly.
However the EU is far far better placed to recover and leave the UK high and dry. I am certain , Mr Spain, France, Germany etc will soon actively seek to entice, for example, car manufacturers to up sticks from UK and set up in the EU economic union where they can export, sell and capitalise unhindered on the lucrative EU market. I note just today. Lloyds of London ( insurance) are opening trading centre in Brussels

Just to point out that the BBC news had this same article on Breakfast to this morning. However; to be fair to them they highlighted the fact that one newspaper stated thousands of Lloyds employees relocating to Brussels, whilst another well known and popular broadsheet stated only tens of employees would relocate.

We should not at all underestimate the resolve and strategy that the Union will formulate to compete with the UK,
Europeans are not the idiots that many think they are.

Agree that the EU will no doubt put a strategy in place to compete with the UK, that is what trade is all about. The difference hopefully will be that the UK will be making its own decisions and will in turn stand or fall by how competitive we are. Some may say this is a dangerous time others will say it's a great opportunity. Interesting and dare I say it exciting times ahead.

[erol]

The point I was making is that the UK is a net importer from the EU by a massive margin - with the rest of the trading world it's not the same story.

If we swallow 16% of the rest of the EU's total exports (figures handily provided by the remain camp but nicely hidden well down in the financial case for remain. hoping we didn't spot them - idiots!) then that only leaves 84% split between the other 27 member states or approximately 3% each - i.e. they need us more than we need them - so what are they going to do - punish us by refusing to sell us stuff?

Sorry Groucho, not trying to be obtuse here but I really do not follow your reasoning ?

Imagine if each month I do 220 Euros worth of work for you and you do 290 euros of work for me. Imagine we have a falling out that puts this income for each of us at risk to an equal proportion. Your arguments seems to be, as far as I understand it, that you are in a weaker position with regards to this loss of income, because you stand to loose 290 euros where as I stand to only loose 220 euros. Yet if that 220 Euros of income for me represents 40% or 45% of my total monthly income and the 290 Euros of income for you only represents 12% or 16% of your total monthly income, then it seems clear, to me at least, that I am in the weaker position. Yes I stand to loose less than you in absolute terms but the effect of that loss to me is far greater than the larger loss is to you.

[Groucho]

The point I was making is that the UK is a net importer from the EU by a massive margin - with the rest of the trading world it's not the same story.

If we swallow 16% of the rest of the EU's total exports (figures handily provided by the remain camp but nicely hidden well down in the financial case for remain. hoping we didn't spot them - idiots!) then that only leaves 84% split between the other 27 member states or approximately 3% each - i.e. they need us more than we need them - so what are they going to do - punish us by refusing to sell us stuff?

Sorry Groucho, not trying to be obtuse here but I really do not follow your reasoning ?

Imagine if each month I do 220 Euros worth of work for you and you do 290 euros of work for me. Imagine we have a falling out that puts this income for each of us at risk to an equal proportion. Your arguments seems to be, as far as I understand it, that you are in a weaker position with regards to this loss of income, because you stand to loose 290 euros where as I stand to only loose 220 euros. Yet if that 220 Euros of income for me represents 40% or 45% of my total monthly income and the 290 Euros of income for you only represents 12% or 16% of your total monthly income, then it seems clear, to me at least, that I am in the weaker position. Yes I stand to loose less than you in absolute terms but the effect of that loss to me is far greater than the larger loss is to you.

It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving - we are leaving the club that has become a different club to the one we joined and shows no sign of heading away from a superstate structure we have no wish or inclination to be a part of. However the idea that we and they will suddenly cease all trade is frankly ridiculous. We will trade - they will trade - and business will go on... the scary scenario that all of a sudden we are a rudderless ship on a stormy sea is more silly scare mongering. Money for all its faults will find an accommodation.

OK it's a bit scary for those who have only known the EU but for the rest of us who have seen the the progress of the growing state it feels like the right time to leave the mega-bureaucracy and reclaim our sovereignty.

We tried to tell them it was becoming a bit too much for our (and many other states it would seem) liking and needed to be reigned in- and the likes of Juncker ... spit ... were having none of it.

Seriously I think the divorce could have been avoided - but, it's happening.

[erol]

It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving -

I was discussing the idea that "they (EU) have more to lose in trade (than the UK)." and the implication that this therefore puts the EU in a 'weaker negotiating position'.

I agree the EU has 'more to loose in trade' in absolute terms, if the negotiations result in a 1% reduction in trade between the UK and EU or a 10% or 30% or whatever %. However I do not agree this therefore puts them in the 'weaker negotiating position' given that this potential respective loss would have a much smaller impact on the EU , even though the amount in absolute terms to them is larger, than it would have on the UK, even though the amount in absolute terms to UK is smaller. It seems clear to me that the EU can absorb any potential reduction in total trade amounts between the UK and the EU far easier than the UK can and that to me means they are, as unfortunate as that is, in the stronger relative 'negotiation position' on such issues ?

[Groucho]

It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving -

I was discussing the idea that "they (EU) have more to lose in trade (than the UK)." and the implication that this therefore puts the EU in a 'weaker negotiating position'.

I agree the EU has 'more to loose in trade' in absolute terms, if the negotiations result in a 1% reduction in trade between the UK and EU or a 10% or 30% or whatever %. However I do not agree this therefore puts them in the 'weaker negotiating position' given that this potential respective loss would have a much smaller impact on the EU , even though the amount in absolute terms to them is larger, than it would have on the UK, even though the amount in absolute terms to UK is smaller. It seems clear to me that the EU can absorb any potential reduction in total trade amounts between the UK and the EU far easier than the UK can and that to me means they are, as unfortunate as that is, in the stronger relative 'negotiation position' on such issues ?

There we must agree to disagree... because the two countries with the most clout Germany and France, stand to lose the most in a tit for tat trade war (the other member states are not in a position to be able to afford such shenanigans... I can't see Germany being minded to compensate the poorer EU member states for loss of trade they dictate must occur to punish the UK.

So even though they are posturing that they will make sure the UK pays in the end they will see their self-interest prevail. The (French and German) large companies will not stand for their business being damaged by the politics of revenge.

The remain camp tried to woo the voters will tales of the havoc that will ensue and look where that got them....

[waz-24-7]

Day 1 of negotiations has not gone well.
The EU has made clear statement upon its road map for particularly a trade deal. Sounds like typical divorce negotiation. Want Want want, deny deny deny.
Anyone who has considered the EU as a lame duck at the mercy of UK reciprocal trade should wake up today and smell the coffee. Mrs May's desire to secure a quick and even consolatory trade deal has been firmly pushed behind the matter of EU citizen rights, Eire border with NI. Uncertainty prevails over UK business as the EU pushes forward with a level of certainty whilst setting themselves as the driver in the negotiations. I believe many people have not expected this.
The UK government has been concerningly quiet today after this announcement.

I believe that once a deal is on the table in 2 years the matter should be put to the people. At that point and ONLY at that point will the people have the full facts.

[geroff]

Day 1 of negotiations has not gone well.
The EU has made clear statement upon its road map for particularly a trade deal. Sounds like typical divorce negotiation. Want Want want, deny deny deny.
Anyone who has considered the EU as a lame duck at the mercy of UK reciprocal trade should wake up today and smell the coffee. Mrs May's desire to secure a quick and even consolatory trade deal has been firmly pushed behind the matter of EU citizen rights, Eire border with NI. Uncertainty prevails over UK business as the EU pushes forward with a level of certainty whilst setting themselves as the driver in the negotiations. I believe many people have not expected this.
The UK government has been concerningly quiet today after this announcement.

I believe that once a deal is on the table in 2 years the matter should be put to the people. At that point and ONLY at that point will the people have the full facts.

.


Jeeeez, Waz , you just love being so bleedy negative dont you.... the EU needs us more than we need them so for goodness sake stop watching the bias BBC and go on holiday for a couple of years you might be suprised when you come back what has been achieved !! ... You start negative every post, this is only the first bleedy day man!
Remind me not to take you to war ... I only want positive folk on my side ...

[waz-24-7]

It's not rocket science Erol.... We are not moving -

I was discussing the idea that "they (EU) have more to lose in trade (than the UK)." and the implication that this therefore puts the EU in a 'weaker negotiating position'.

I agree the EU has 'more to loose in trade' in absolute terms, if the negotiations result in a 1% reduction in trade between the UK and EU or a 10% or 30% or whatever %. However I do not agree this therefore puts them in the 'weaker negotiating position' given that this potential respective loss would have a much smaller impact on the EU , even though the amount in absolute terms to them is larger, than it would have on the UK, even though the amount in absolute terms to UK is smaller. It seems clear to me that the EU can absorb any potential reduction in total trade amounts between the UK and the EU far easier than the UK can and that to me means they are, as unfortunate as that is, in the stronger relative 'negotiation position' on such issues ?

There we must agree to disagree... because the two countries with the most clout Germany and France, stand to lose the most in a tit for tat trade war (the other member states are not in a position to be able to afford such shenanigans... I can't see Germany being minded to compensate the poorer EU member states for loss of trade they dictate must occur to punish the UK.



So even though they are posturing that they will make sure the UK pays in the end they will see their self-interest prevail. The (French and German) large companies will not stand for their business being damaged by the politics of revenge.

The remain camp tried to woo the voters will tales of the havoc that will ensue and look where that got them....

I think todays EU statement has sent a clear signal.
The EU will NOT prioritise a trade deal. Much to the cost of the UK. It will wait until other matters such as EU citizen rights and borders are settled.
WHY??

Consider Uk business..

Now. very soon outside the EU...with no trade deal anytime quick. Mr EU will actively be talking with these same businesses many of which are foreign.,,, You are welcome to up sticks and move across the water back into the EU trade union....its easy...you are familiar with our rules and you have done well in the EU. we have worldwide trade deals in place as you know...... The UK is in a mess with no direction.... Come on over we will even assist you to move.

Talk of damage to the EU from no trade deal has been considered and clearly there is a strategy in place. I believe that involves attracting businesses to move from the UK back into the EU. Lloyds of London have just announced that very move.

[waz-24-7]

Day 1 of negotiations has not gone well.
The EU has made clear statement upon its road map for particularly a trade deal. Sounds like typical divorce negotiation. Want Want want, deny deny deny.
Anyone who has considered the EU as a lame duck at the mercy of UK reciprocal trade should wake up today and smell the coffee. Mrs May's desire to secure a quick and even consolatory trade deal has been firmly pushed behind the matter of EU citizen rights, Eire border with NI. Uncertainty prevails over UK business as the EU pushes forward with a level of certainty whilst setting themselves as the driver in the negotiations. I believe many people have not expected this.
The UK government has been concerningly quiet today after this announcement.

I believe that once a deal is on the table in 2 years the matter should be put to the people. At that point and ONLY at that point will the people have the full facts.

.


Jeeeez, Waz , you just love being so bleedy negative dont you.... the EU needs us more than we need them so for goodness sake stop watching the bias BBC and go on holiday for a couple of years you might be suprised when you come back what has been achieved !! ... You start negative every post, this is only the first bleedy day man!
Remind me not to take you to war ... I only want positive folk on my side ...

So what prey is your take on today because your posts are devoid of anything of interest and best left outside of proper debate.