Cyprus Talks - Crans - Montana

[PoshinDevon]

Talks are underway.

Link below for live updates.

http://cyprus-mail.com/2017/06/28/live-crans-montana/

First day or so will likely show if there is any possibility of a solution.

[Holly]

Thanks for that, But think we will more likely have snow next week , than any solution.

[PoshinDevon]

Thanks for that, But think we will more likely have snow next week , than any solution.

From all reports this looks to be the last chance for any solution. I know many view these talks with scepticsm; however whatever happens does affect all of us who have an interest in North Cyprus.

I will follow what happens and wait longingly for the first snowfall. Dream on!

[paul90]

From an article by Yusuf Kanli in todays Hurriyet Daily News:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/as-cra ... sCatID=425


"According to pundits from both sides of the Cyprus division as well as many Cyprus watchers all around the globe, this might be the last effort for a federal resolution. What if it failed, what will be the likely outcome? Will the world forget about imposing a “marriage of convenience” for the two Cypriot communities that have earnestly been insisting for the past more than half century to not come together? Could this exercise indeed be the last effort to establish a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation on Cyprus? Or, as it has become the fashion, will we see a rehash of the same failed experiment in five to 10 years’ time with some fresh hopes? Can the two people of Cyprus get a velvet divorce, a separation on the basis of mutually agreed terms, producing two Cypriot states within the European Union?

Indeed, two Cypriot states within the EU might be a far better and sustainable settlement on Cyprus than a federation established under duress by the international community. Apart from giving the island two seats in the EU council, what might be the difference in establishing a bi-communal and bi-zonal federation with two working sub-democracies, two ethnicities and two languages and that of establishing two separate Cypriot states under the EU umbrella? With territorial adjustments, an adequate compensation scheme, but allowing the full application to EU acquis communautaire; obviously without any derogation but with no pre-settlement or retrospective application, a sui-generis, but a perfectly and harmoniously working settlement, contributing to the advancement of Turkish-Greek relations might be produced. Under such a deal, Greek Cypriots would not need to be obsessed with the continued presence of the Turkish military, or the guarantor status of Turkey. Turkish Cypriots would not need to be obsessed that Greek Cypriots might try to annihilate the Turkish presence on the island one night again. Such an attempt would mean launching war on a neighboring country, and Greek Cypriots would not be able to tell the world as they did in the 1960s that operations on Turkish Cypriots was aimed at reestablishing firm government control over some rebel elements.

According to a Turkish minister, this latest round of the Crans Montana conference was indeed nothing but a process everyone believed has no chance of success but still attending due to a demand by the United Nations Secretary-General. “We all know that there is no prospect of success but are still going to Crans Montana because the secretary-general wanted so,” the minister reportedly said. Was he wrong? Unfortunately no, as this writer has in a previous article listed the very reasons why failure has become unescapable.

If the sine quo non of a settlement for either side is indeed the “definitely unacceptable” elements of the other, could it be possible to achieve any sort of a rapprochement? If, for example, Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Anastasiades still believed that an accord should allow no Turkish troops and no Turkish guarantee, even the empathy champion Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı might say “Yes” to that. Forget it, even if Akıncı under duress or because of some other motivation might feel compelled to say “Yes,” would the Turkish Cypriot people agree to such a deal at a referendum? Similarly, if Anastasiades, under duress, agreed for the continuation of Turkish guarantee and reduced the number of Turkish troops to stay in the post-settlement Cyprus, would Greek Cypriots agree to such a deal and endorse it at a referendum?

Thus, Crans Montana’s success, rather than its failure, will be the real surprise. The success of this process would largely depend on the performance of the Greek Cypriot side and the subsequent public diplomacy to sell the outcome to the two people of the island. Since Greek Cypriot leadership is not expected to make any concession without reciprocal move from the Turkish side – and vice versa – how are the two people going to be convinced of such concessions?

Yet, the performance of the Greek Cypriot-Greek duo over the past two-year period – even if we fool ourselves and forget and forgive their intransigent performance of the past half century – will be the determining factor, if not for overall success, at least for the duration of the conference.

Can we buy the argument that with or without success, nothing will be the same after Crans Montana? I have difficulty believing it, but from west to east, Cypriots to non-Cypriots, everyone says so for now… Tomorrow? Let’s wait and see."

[Laura B]

A good start??

http://in-cyprus.com/they-forgot-eide-at-the-airport/

[Mowgli597]

Renewed talks on reunification of Cyprus open in SwitzerlandI

'After 50 years of monitoring the peace, the UN has taken the unprecedented step of signalling it will end the island’s peacekeeping mission, UNFICYP, if talks collapse again. The force is the world’s longest-running peace operation. This month Australia made the first move, announcing it was pulling out police officers from the operation and redeploying resources to the Asia-Pacific region "to enhance stability closer to home".'
.........
'The UK has offered to cede almost half of its sovereign base areas – overseas territories that include listening posts and installations – to a united Cyprus and, privately, has been pressuring Turkey to accept a solution where, in lieu of a troop presence, a multilateral force, run by either the EU or UN, is mobilised to act as guarantor.

Ankara has suggested it will propose reducing troop numbers by 80% at the conference but has called a full withdrawal “unrealistic”.'

[turtle]

Funny how there are only pictures of the GC side of Ledra...how do we know there are TC,s there ?

[ElectricianPete]

Thanks for that, But think we will more likely have snow next week , than any solution.

From all reports this looks to be the last chance for any solution. I know many view these talks with scepticsm; however whatever happens does affect all of us who have an interest in North Cyprus.

I will follow what happens and wait longingly for the first snowfall. Dream on!

Is this the Last Last chance or the Last last last one etc?

[frontalman]

I think it must be the last waltz this time.

[David]

If the talks succeed would the euro become the currency ?

[waddo]

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/fts/index_en.htm Now if only the North had been allowed into the EU in the same manner as the South, the amount of money paid by the EU would have cured the problem of paying back all that the South think they deserved to get. Interesting website and shows just how badly the poor South have been treated. Also details of the pittance that the EU has provided for the North.

[Hedge-fund]

Thanks for that, But think we will more likely have snow next week , than any solution.

It's currently snowing in Crans Montana

[Hedge-fund]

If the talks succeed would the euro become the currency ?

Yes

[David]

Thats bad news for some

[Laura B]

I would think it's bad news for most!

[kaiserphil]

Yep! None too good for my pensions when converted form Sterling!

[David]

Money in the bank would be converted to Euros, would rather take my chances on the TL getting stronger so might be able to claw back some of the losses.

[Keithcaley]

I don't know with what authority you state that "Money in the bank would be converted to Euros" - this may be simply your personal opinion, rather than an actual 'known fact' (and if that is the case, then it should be prefaced as such ) but I would have thought that a TL account, or a Sterling account is precisely that and that no one has the right to convert it to anything else, apart from the account holder. In many countries, you can have Bank Accounts in various currencies, as you choose, - no one forces you to convert them to another currency!

Also, I would imagine (just my personal opinion !) that there would be a transition period, while the financial stability of the 'TRNC' part of Cyprus was assessed as to whether it met the criteria for membership of the Eurozone, and what procedures and regulations would be in place...

Apart from that, your guess (and it would be just that - a guess...) is as good as mine...

[Laura B]

Totally agree Keithcaley. No one can convert my bank accounts to anything without my say so. My dollar account will not be converted (ever!) to a euro account and I'm sure it will be the same with any currency account. Let's all panic and run round with our hands in the air shall we??

[Keithcaley]

...Let's all panic and run round with our hands in the air shall we??

...or not....

[Ragged Robin]

I do not think the banks could change the currency they hold our money in. But that is not the point: if the Euro became the official currency here we would have to change the money we withdrew from our bank accounts (whether in Sterling, TL or even dollars!) into Euros in order to purchase items at the Supermarket etc. A lot would depend on the respective rates of exchange but we would also no doubt lose money in bank charges for exchanging currency.

[waddo]

No money - no panic! The sock under the bed is still safe - lol.

[Hedge-fund]

I don't know with what authority you state that "Money in the bank would be converted to Euros" - this may be simply your personal opinion, rather than an actual 'known fact' (and if that is the case, then it should be prefaced as such ) but I would have thought that a TL account, or a Sterling account is precisely that and that no one has the right to convert it to anything else, apart from the account holder. In many countries, you can have Bank Accounts in various currencies, as you choose, - no one forces you to convert them to another currency!

Also, I would imagine (just my personal opinion !) that there would be a transition period, while the financial stability of the 'TRNC' part of Cyprus was assessed as to whether it met the criteria for membership of the Eurozone, and what procedures and regulations would be in place...

Apart from that, your guess (and it would be just that - a guess...) is as good as mine...

I agree - and this would be the time where we will discover which banks need bailing out. I understand they will be bailed out rather than declared insolvent & closed (to protect confidence in the political procedure of reunification)

I also understand both currencies will be used for a period and then the lira dispensed with.

The message from the conference thus far is that everything is just about agreed apart from security/guarantees.

I'm not Cypriot so am not emotionally or financially involved in the outcome but this does seem to be the best chance they have had or will ever have of an agreement.

[PoshinDevon]

http://www.starturkeynews.com/index.asp?haberID=7028

Appears Cyprus Talks called off.

Or could this be regurgitated old news, or the hope of the Starturkey news organisation?

Who knows.

[Laura B]

The published date on the above article is in May.

This appears to be the latest:

http://in-cyprus.com/guterres-to-take-c ... s-montana/

[Hedge-fund]

From Eide a few days ago..........

http://www.uncyprustalks.org/near-verba ... on-cyprus/

[Laura B]

http://cyprus-mail.com/2017/06/30/guete ... ce-cyprus/

Well he seems to be giving it his best shot at least.