If Turkey Declares War on Syria????

[How188]

How will we be effected, both physicaly, given our close proximity, and Financially?
Whch way will intrest rates go?
Can they stike us here as we are not too far away?

[andrew4232]

i think you will find there are closer targets for them both to find then cyprus

[Deniz1]

A friend was unable to send money to Damascus today via western Union.

[smithscorner]

I have been trying to keep up with the news on this one both Turkish and in the UK cannot really see why the Syrian government would want to bait Turkey into getting involved, you would think they have got enough on their plate! Unless they hope to get other groups/countries involved who take exception to Turkeys' growing dominance in the region, but that would seem to be playing a very dangerous game and for what outcome?

I suppose if war was to be declared then the TRNC would inevitably be involved both as De facto part of Turkey and given the number of Turkish nationals here who are in or have close connections to the armed forces, it would as I understand it require NATO involvement as the security of a member state would be threatened.

[iancrumpy]

cannot really see why the Syrian government would want to bait Turkey into getting involved

Turkey has unfortunately been involved for quite some time now ... possibly even from the start of the troubles in January 2011 ... it would seem Erdogan wants to keep in with the Saudis in their efforts to make the region more religiously conservative.

[Mel7348]

iancrumpy-
Turkey has unfortunately been involved for quite some time now ... possibly even from the start of the troubles in January 2011.

Turkey immediately accepted thousands of Syrian Refugees and continues to do so, so in a manner of speaking it has been involved from the start.

Do not begin to understand all the regional complexities but there is suspicion as to where the support for an escalation in the number of PKK attacks on the Turkish Military eminates. The Syrian Kurds now seem to have an autonomous region within Syria. The Sunni factor is yet another dimension in the tragic chain of events destroying so many innocent lives.

[iancrumpy]

Turkey immediately accepted thousands of Syrian Refugees and continues to do so, so in a manner of speaking it has been involved from the start.

Mel, I was thinking more of the training camps in Turkey.

I do not begin to understand all the regional complexities but there is suspicion as to where the support for an escalation in the number of PKK attacks on the Turkish Military eminates. The Syrian Kurds now seem to have an autonomous region within Syria.

The Iraqi, Syrian and Turkish Kurds all have their own different agendas - they are not a cohesive unit - so Mel, I'm not so certain that the Syrian Kurds would support the PKK.

The Sunni factor is yet another dimension in the tragic chain of events destroying so many innocent lives.

The sunnis in Syria wanted and in all honesty should have been given more say in the running of the country ... sunni Saudi Arabia saw this as an opportunity to finance and bring into secular Syria a way of life more akin to what they have in Saudi ... and sunni (albeit less conservative) Turkey followed suit ... I guess more to keep in with the Saudis

[How188]

Has anyone noticed a fall in the valuse of the lira as these cross border skirmishes between Turkey and Syria?
How that could effect the value of our investmments/savings in North Cyprus/Turkish Banks.
Is it time to switch to Pounds??

[Mel7348]

Syria-Turkey tensions
• Turkey has allowed a Syrian passenger plane to resume its course after it was grounded on suspicion of carrying weapons. On Wednesday, military jets escorted the Damascus-bound Airbus A-320, carrying about 30 passengers, into the airport in Ankara hours after Turkey's chief of staff said his troops would respond with greater force if bombardments from Syria kept hitting Turkish territory, Turkish state-run television said. "We are determined to control weapons transfers to a regime that carries out such brutal massacres against civilians. It is unacceptable that such a transfer is made using our airspace," Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.

• No Russian weapons were on board the plane a source in a Russian arms exporting agency told Interfax, Reuters reports. "Neither weapons nor any kind of systems or parts for military equipment were on board or could have been on board," the news agency quoted a source.

Syria has accused Turkey of Air Piracy. The above information is on this morning's live Middle East Blog in the Guardian.

Things seem to be getting very messy indeed.

[andre514]

it may well be nothing of importance was on the jet
but it is a subtle way of increasing pressure on the damascus regime

there is is little chance of anyone declaring war on anyone as such
but the region is extremely volatile and there are sectarian and border
disputes let alone the "political" issues ...however defined

of course damascus is desperately trying to internationalize its dire
internal conflicts...in an ideal world assad would draw in turkey, israel
and iran to confuse the syrian imbroglio

assad's regime is desperate enough to do this

[andre514]

syria is a client state of both iran and the russian federation:
and to use the well known phrase its government "cannot be allowed to fail"

there is muttering that syrian intelligence has started assisting insurgents
in the south-east of turkey, and indeed there has been a sharp increase
in attacks on the turkish army in that area recently

the brutality of the beleagured ruling elite in syria is almost beyond
belief, but a cynical little bird tells me the someday there will be a trillion
-dollar rebuilding contract in the offer to resore this shattered land

[iancrumpy]

The brutality of the beleagured ruling elite in syria is almost beyond belief

Andre514, until the troubles started in January 2011 there wasn't a big problem with human rights' violations in Syria - it wasn't ideal, but then again, recalling the Bogside Masacre of 26 unarmed demonstrators by the British Army in 1972, where is it ideal? I certainly don't think it justified foreign intervention. But that's what happened. The violence there has now unfortunately escalated out of all proportions, but then again wouldn't the British government react in the same way, if faced with foreign powers financing its possible overthrow.

There are sectarian disputes

And this is what motivated the Saudis to start funding the rebels in when, January 2011? February 2011?
The only cause that unites these "freedom fighters" is to overthrow Assad. That said, a cause that unites many of them, clearly related to the Saudi funding, is to bring something akin to Sharia law in the region. It's quite ironic then that "western" powers also decided to support the rebels ... though keeping in with the oil-rich Saudis and "the rebuilding contracts", that you mentioned, could have something to do with it

there is muttering that syrian intelligence has started assisting insurgents in the south-east of turkey

If true, although I can't condone such support for the PKK, I can fully understand Damascus - after all Turkish intelligence has been doing the same in Syria for some time, and furthermore Ankara's decision to allow and support rebel training camps in Turkey must clearly have upset Damascus.

It should be noted that most of my Turkish friends in Istanbul (who tend to be on the less conservative side) are quite rightly also critical of Ankara's current actions.

[Mel7348]

iancrumpy -until the troubles started in January 2011 there wasn't a big problem with human rights' violations in Syria.

There did seem to be a problem with citizens peacefully demonstrating for political reforms.

Do not know the human rights situation prior to the uprising. Do know the media is State controlled and foreign correspondents not particularly welcome, even before the current situation.

Perhaps President Assad truely believes Syria belongs to him as did his father who bequeathed it to him.

[iancrumpy]

There did seem to be a problem with citizens peacefully demonstrating for political reforms.

As there was in Northern Ireland in, say, 1972

Do not know the human rights situation prior to the uprising. Do know the media is State controlled and foreign correspondents not particularly welcome, even before the current situation. Perhaps President Assad truely believes Syria belongs to him as did his father who bequeathed it to him.

I agree it wasn't ideal Mel. Indeed the sunnis in particular there should have been given more say in the running of the country. Did it though justfy the intervention of foreign powers? I think not.

[Mel7348]

Yes indeed, had a big problem with Bloody Sunday .

The documented (televised footage) lack of tolerance for citizens peacefully demonstrating for political reform may have been the trigger for others with agendas to become involved.

Some commentators have questioned - is this a war by proxy ? America,EU/regional allies supporting the opposition. Russia,China/ regional allies supporting Regime.

I wonder if Syria as we now know it and its people will ever recover from the devastation and atrocities being perpertrated by both sides.

[iancrumpy]

Some commentators have questioned - is this a war by proxy ? America,EU/regional allies supporting the opposition. Russia,China/ regional allies supporting Regime.
I wonder if Syria as we now know it and its people will ever recover from the devastation and atrocities being perpertrated by both sides.

I agree, it's a sad state of affairs

[iancrumpy]

Source : http://www.haberkktc.com/haber/ermenist ... 49565.html

An Armenian cargo plane, said to be carrying aid to Syria, was asked to land in Erzurum. Apparently after leaving Armenia the pilot asked for permission to pass through Turkish air space, but the Turkish authorities replied "Only if you allow us to search the aircraft first." The plane landed in Erzurum at about 11:30 am and is still being searched.

Just reporting guys, I don't have time today to discuss this development ...

[deputydawg]

My mother, even when aged 97 years, would recite to me:


War begats poverty,
Poverty peace,
Peace, when riches abound,
brings pride,
Pride is war's ground,
War begats poverty,
So goes the round.

[andre514]

message 12 ian crumpy:

"...until...2011...there wasn't a big problem with human rights..."

syria under the baathist regime has long been notorious for
torture and murders, take the 1982 homs massacre for example
where as many as 20,000 died, according to robert fisk

'course this wont exonerate those involved in the iraq invation or
even ...er... bloody sunday in northern ireland

[iancrumpy]

Take the 1982 homs massacre for example

So Andre, do you think there was justification 18 months ago for foreign powers to support regime change there? I don't. I'll leave it at that. Sorry, things to do ...

[andre514]

ian,

...nobody is justifying anything

and the west's recent experience of intervening in the
moslem world has proved fairly unhappy for all concerned

what is proving exeedingly difficult, is answering the original
question posed on the thread...look at the map and syria is
uncomfortably near eastern cyprus

although what relationship cyprus has to it all is questionable

yet if turkey were to become embroiled, perhaps with iran
drawn in to support the alawite ruling elite in syria, turkey's
recent economic progress could be badly dented

...which would see interest rates shoot up, the ytl slide and
inflation begin to move up

but that is a big "if"

let's hope turkey, on its own anyway, can keep clear of it

[teg17]

As far as the political situation is concerned I personally think that having read and reviewed the timeline of Cyprus and looking at present day politics the country as a whole will only be a pawn in the larger picture. The Island is strategically placed in the eastern med. and I would guess that any future changes would be largely influenced by America's relationship with Turkey. America I imagine, must be also be rather concerned at Russia's growing interest in the current and future potential investment on the Island, coupled with this the discovery of gas deposits offshore in the region including possible attempts by the south to have bi-lateral agreements with Israel and you have a real melting pot. The British military base I am sure keeps a very close watch on developments but I don't expect that the historical Cyprus/TRNC issue will be the deciding factor as I think the differing cultures make the problems almost irreconcilable, the history speaks for itself and with politicians on both sides continually stoking the fire its like watching paint dry. Joining the EU seems to be off Turkey's radar for the time being and it would not surprise me that if their relationship with America develops as a result of the Syria issue there could well be an effort by America to establish an air base in the Karpaz region of the TRNC, which has already been mooted in some quarters, although I doubt if Russia would be to amused. Who knows what the end game is, but for what its worth that's my take on it, and as I said Cyprus as a whole will be just a pawn. After watching recent developments in the Straits of Hormuz it would be no surprise if there is a strike on Iran in the next 6 months.

[andre514]

all very informative teg, I am sure:
...but you fail to mention interest rates
or close neighbour syria
both "subjects of concern" to kibkomers

[andre514]

yes teg you did mention the syrian issue
but without explaining any effect on cyprus

perhaps there isn't any?

[andre514]

oops again you did mention an airbase in the karpaz,
think I have been "overworking" please disregard all
my recent postings, thanks

[Mel7348]

An American Air Base in the Karpaz was being muted back in 2000, it's a long time in the muting.

[andre514]

latest press report from our troubled neighbour
is that militias have been seen with sa-7 "strela"
missiles over their shoulders

these are outdated weapons but even so will
occasionaly bring down an aircraft or helicopter
...so assad's pilots have been told to stay above
14,000 feet, from where their bombing will be
even less "accurate" of course

do not be taken in by the angry posturing on the
syrian/turkish border:
it is likely the syrians are encouraging the pkk,
while both saudi and qatar are helping the rebels
because they are very uneasy about their own
restive shiites open to influence from iran,
the ruling syrian alawites' long-tern allies

reports that the shiite group hizbollah has started
to fire back into syria brings home the strategic
character of the whole thing

while cyprus is a relative backwater to all of this,
it is arguable that if nicosia ever gets its act
together over gas reserves the island may figure
in the mid-east energy equation

finally, yes indeed there are big ears and eyes in
terms of the radar station on top of mount troodos,
from where the uk can survey the whole east med
and all points east:
only trouble is they have to draw the correct
conclusions from what they may see, unlike in 1956

...and will remember that not only has the old lion
become relatively toothless in latter days,
but uncle nato has chosen to "pass" on this crisis

[andre514]

correction:
assad's 'planes have still been bombing the xxxx out of rebel areas,
so there seems to me to be three possibilities, as of november 4th:

the whole business continues more or less indefinately with neither
side strong enough to totally neutralize the other side

the local civil war finally blows up into a full-scale regional conflict
just as happened in europe, back in august 1914

or the rebels "win" then have a second civil war to see which group
finally comes out on top

...note my lack of use of the word "cyprus" in the above guesswork

[Philoz]

The US Is now nearly totally self reliant for oil and gas thanks to the Fracking technology.

In other words they have sensibly uninvolved themselves from the whole Middle east .

And therefore not need to get in involved in expensive and unproductive wars.

The sooner the EU do the same and just let them(the middle east) get on with killing each other the better.

The Military implications are very serious-The US has spent trillions of dollars in the past protecting its oil supplies.

Now is Up to the EU -A bunch of idiots on a tax free gravy train that spend years on deciding what shape a banana or cucumber should be.

Can you really see the French, Germans, Italians ,Spanish, Italians the middle east-getting stuck in?

Turkey is a NATO member ,and has a very important role as a 'middleman' between ostensibly Christian states,and Muslim states.

The key point is -Don't rely on the US in getting involved in future battles,and then think where that leaves the world?

Turkey has a key,and very complicated role to play in a middle east that seems reluctant to police wayward states in their environs.

[andre514]

philoz,

you label the us-inspired wars in the muslim world as expensive and unproductive,
but almost in the same breath refer to the us "protecting its oil supplies"

yet you seem to exclude emergent turkey from the same contradictions between
entaglement and any key role in a middle east "policing role"

in fact it is much simpler than it all seems:

turkey is very reluctant to gamble the economic sucess it has achieved in recent
years just to get itself involved in a trillion-ytl regional peacekeeping strategy in
which likely will get no more than lukewarm verbal support from the "spineless" eu
states you so despise

'course when you refer to energy supplies europe too is less dependent nowadays
on mid-eastern gas, especially since the apparent shelving of the "nabucco" plan...

now it shops at the kremlin instead