TL drops below 6 to the pound

[Hedge-fund]

But that makes no sense what so ever as far as I can see. As far as I can understand what you are saying you seem to be telling me £100k has devalued by 30% over 10 years if I am in the UK but by 60% if I am in the TRNC. That just seems to be patent nonsense to me. By this argument if I was Zimbabwe for the last 10 years and put 100k STERLING under my bed ten years ago, today it would be worth £1 or less. Sorry but just seems like patent nonsense to me.

If you want to use the Turkish inflation rate to determine how much less 'stuff' 100K sterling buys you to today vs 10 years ago then the only sensible way to do so as far as I can see would be to calculate how much less stuff 605,000TL will buy today vs how much stuff 245,000 TL bought you in 2008.

I'm sorry it makes no sense to you.

The calculation was what had happened to £100k changed into lira 10 years ago - the calculation was fine but it had excluded inflation. As the lira accumulation was in the trnc it was probably fair to use trnc inflation rates. If you prefer UK or Zimbabwe rate you crack on - I have no personal preference.

[silverfox1]

Inflation what inflation!!!!!????

I have just received a text from Lemar saying that a 1.5ltr of Grants Whiskey is 59.90TL or £10 in old money.

How much was it in 2008 (if you could get it )and how much would that cost in UK today!!!!!!!!!!????????????

[erol]

The calculation was what had happened to £100k changed into lira 10 years ago - the calculation was fine but it had excluded inflation.

The calculation by silverfox1 was about what would happen to £100k changed into lira ten years ago, left to accumulate compound interest and then turned BACK into Sterling. Started with £100k. Still have £100k today having changed it back.

To which you pointed out that £100k sterling back in 2008 bought you more stuff that it does today in 2018. Which is correct it does by you less stuff but it does not buy you 60% less stuff as you asserted. It buys yous around 25-30% less stuff.

As the lira accumulation was in the trnc it was probably fair to use trnc inflation rates.

Nothing about fairness. Just about common sense and logic. It is just nonsense from where I am sitting to say £100k in my hand today is worth 60% less than it was in 2008 when I am in the TRNC but only 30% less if I am somewhere else, which as far as I can see is exactly what you are claiming is 'fair'. I had £100k in 2008. I still have £100k now. How much less stuff that £100k buys is nothing to do with the lira inflation rate just as it is nothing to do with the zimbabwe rate.

It was clear to me as soon as you claimed that £100k today would buy 60% less that it bought you in 2008 that your figures were just plain wrong. Still I went and sought evidence to confirm or not that my feeling was backed up by actual figures and it was. You keep claiming that £100k today buys you the same amount as £40k would have bought you in 2008 if you like but to me you were and still are patently incorrect about this as far as I am concerned.

[Hedge-fund]

As usual you are on a self indulgent tangent arguing with no-one but yourself.

As I say - you crack on mate I'm sure you'll find someone to play with.

[erol]

As usual you are on a self indulgent tangent arguing with no-one but yourself.

As I say - you crack on mate I'm sure you'll find someone to play with.

That is your perspective. My perspective is you made a claim that is incorrect and when that is pointed out to you and explained why you were wrong you then just pretend you were never wrong in the first place and resort to personalised comments about me as an individual rather than address any of the points made. I will indeed crack on. If I am wrong I would like to know I am wrong and why I am wrong. Nothing you have said so far has achieved that.

Some example prices from 2008

https://www.tripadvisor.co.nz/ShowTopic ... trict.html

"Beer on average is about 5ytl (£2 ) Gordons Gin and tonic 12 ytl (£5) (the local gin is cheaper)

Can of soft drink is 4 ytl (£1.60)"

According to your claim if beer on average here in TRNC was around £2 in 2008, then today given that my £'s are worth 40% of what they were in 2008, according to you, the price today would be around £5.00 or in TL 30. Like I say patently not the case from where I am sitting.

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Doing some research I found these inflation rates for Turkey.
2008 10.06
2009 6.53
2010 6.40
2011 10.45
2012 6.16
2013 7.40
2014 8.17
2015 8.81
2016 8.53
2017 11.92

So by my fag packet calculations it would take over £22 to buy what £10 did in 2008.
I’d be interested to know what the interest rates paid out by banks were in the same period if anyone can find them.

[Keithcaley]

As usual you are on a self indulgent tangent arguing with no-one but yourself.

As I say - you crack on mate I'm sure you'll find someone to play with.

Hedge-fund, I feel that you are now attacking the poster, rather than debating the logic of his posts.

You may wish to reconsider the tone of your post if you want the rest of us to treat your statements with the respect which you would expect

"Just my opinion"...

[erol]

Doing some research I found these inflation rates for Turkey.
2008 10.06
2009 6.53
2010 6.40
2011 10.45
2012 6.16
2013 7.40
2014 8.17
2015 8.81
2016 8.53
2017 11.92

So by my fag packet calculations it would take over £22 to buy what £10 did in 2008.
I’d be interested to know what the interest rates paid out by banks were in the same period if anyone can find them.

Again the mistake you are making as far as I can see is imagining that the TL to Sterling rate has remained the same over this period of time, but it has not. it would be like me getting my salary here in Sterling and then asking for a salary increase that reflects the inflation rate of TL. I could try claiming such was 'fair' but I doubt there is an employer in the world that would agree.

In 2008 the average price of a beer here in the TRNC was around £2, as per the link I gave earlier. This also seems right to me based on my memory. About 5TL as an average price for a beer in 2008/ So what is the average price for a beer now in 2018 ? I would say around 12TL , which in sterling is,around £2. If the average price for a beer in trnc is say 15TL (£2,5) then you would be getting about 25% less beer here in trnc for each pound sterling, which is miles short of the 60% less figure hedge-fund thinks is accurate. If you can see any error in these figures please do point them out. Was a beer here in TRNC on average around £2 / 5tL in 2008 ? What is the the average price of a beer today in 2018 ? 12 TL / £2 ?

[Hedge-fund]

As usual you are on a self indulgent tangent arguing with no-one but yourself.

As I say - you crack on mate I'm sure you'll find someone to play with.

Hedge-fund, I feel that you are now attacking the poster, rather than debating the logic of his posts.

You may wish to reconsider the tone of your post if you want the rest of us to treat your statements with the respect which you would expect

"Just my opinion"...

Sorry if it came across like that - not intended.

[silverfox1]

Inflation what Inflation????

A packet of cigarettes is only £1.50 at Ercan that is 9TL.

Cheap as Chips!!!

[kibsolar1999]

in message 59 i supplied you already with this info..
june 2008-2018
TL
inflation 1- 2,30

but the saying

So by my fag packet calculations it would take over £22 to buy what £10 did in 2008.

is...NO NO NO, wrong thinking.

this statistics is for Turkish lira and therefore FOR LIVING AND EARNING IN TURKEY. in 2018 you have to pay 2,30 TL instead of 1 TL in 2008 for the same items/services.
(and inflation and living cost index are two different things on top)
and 1,35 GBP today instead of 1 GBP in 2008 for living and pricing IN THE UK .
and 1,21 euro in the EUROZONE (...thats an average.. some countries are more expensive as others) .

it can be that inflation and living cost index for "foreign currency holders living in TR- (but not ) TRNC " is zero or even a bit down, but not always.... it depends "which currency" you hold.
i remember the times ..about end 2006... the GBP was nearly 1,50 to the euro and fell to nearly 1:1 about 2 years later.
same time, the TRNC put up several prices.. eg for electricity and fuels. a desater, some prices (in GBP) went up approx 70%.
if you are lucky you can find some comments in old Cyp44.
from that, the GBP never really recovered. since 1999, the value of the GBP to the euro is down 22%.

and yes, a gov has possibilities to "influence" inflation.. eg, by new taxing. once we had NO VAT here, now customs taxing for several items as alcoholics are down.
btw, in 1990 the price for a package of cigarettes in the shops was about 0,5 euro. now it is about 2,20, but it has been nearly 3 euros about 1,5 years ago.

not to be completely off topic
6,0659

[erol]

is...NO NO NO, wrong thinking.

Exactly. You can not apply a TL inflation rate to a sterling amount any more than you can walk into a bank here and open a sterling account but ask for interest paid on that account to be the TL rate. It just makes no sense and for exactly the same reasons. This is what hedge-fund did and what you are still doing and is why you come up with 'results' that are totally divorced from actual reality (beer here cost about the same £2 as it did in 2008 and not the £5 that your and hedge-funds figures say it should.)

[Reyntj]

Inflation figures just out now 15.39 % ! Uo from 12.15 last minth. Nit looking good also they have been subsidising petrol prices up until the election that is unsustainable and when oetrol goes uo so does everything else

[EnjoyingTheSun]

is...NO NO NO, wrong thinking.

Exactly. You can not apply a TL inflation rate to a sterling amount any more than you can walk into a bank here and open a sterling account but ask for interest paid on that account to be the TL rate. It just makes no sense and for exactly the same reasons. This is what hedge-fund did and what you are still doing and is why you come up with 'results' that are totally divorced from actual reality (beer here cost about the same £2 as it did in 2008 and not the £5 that your and hedge-funds figures say it should.)

Actual reality is people here putting their life savings into TL to have the high interest rates subsidise their living expenses and finding inflation biting into those savings.
If they then decide to go back to the UK then the 6TL rate wipes out some more of their savings.
That’s real life

[erol]

Actual reality is people here putting their life savings into TL to have the high interest rates subsidise their living expenses and finding inflation biting into those savings. If they then decide to go back to the UK then the 6TL rate wipes out some more of their savings.
That’s real life

And if the £/tl was 4tl to the pound today their financial pain would be less and if it was 8TL to £ their financial pain would be more but none of that means "it would take over £22 to buy what £10 did in 2008 (in trnc)"

What is more the financial pain such people are suffering is less than that suffered by TC's who have spent their whole lives living and working and retiring in the TRNC.

[Reyntj]

New inflation i rate just out ober 15 %......tl tanking

[Groucho]

David / Keith,

£100,000 exchanged into TL in June 2008 at 2.45TL to the £ = 245000TL

245,000 TL invested over 10 years at a rate net of tax @ 9.5% with compound interest yields a total of 605,000TL.

605,000TL exchanged to £ in June 2018 at an exchange rate of 6.05 TL to the £ = £100,000

End result no one has lost and no has gained.....FACT.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics!

I’m not seeing that.
The lire rate in July 2013 was 2.9 I believe.
If you had changed up £100,000
you would have got TL 290,000
If you would have got 12.5% interest even without tax it would be worth TL 522,588 today.
At 6 lire you’re original £100,000 is now worth £87,000.
That’s just on the rate, Turkish inflation over the last 5 years has averaged over 9% a year.

Compound interest... redo your sums...

[EnjoyingTheSun]

David / Keith,

£100,000 exchanged into TL in June 2008 at 2.45TL to the £ = 245000TL

245,000 TL invested over 10 years at a rate net of tax @ 9.5% with compound interest yields a total of 605,000TL.

605,000TL exchanged to £ in June 2018 at an exchange rate of 6.05 TL to the £ = £100,000

End result no one has lost and no has gained.....FACT.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics!

I’m not seeing that.
The lire rate in July 2013 was 2.9 I believe.
If you had changed up £100,000
you would have got TL 290,000
If you would have got 12.5% interest even without tax it would be worth TL 522,588 today.
At 6 lire you’re original £100,000 is now worth £87,000.
That’s just on the rate, Turkish inflation over the last 5 years has averaged over 9% a year.

Compound interest... redo your sums...

Over FIVE years.

Year one 36,250 in interest

Year two 40,781


Year three 45,879


Year four 51,613


Year five 58,065

232,588 in interest earned added to 290,000 = 522,588?
What have I missed?

[wanderer]

Mars bars
They used to be a good measure of inflation eg how many mars bars would it cost to buy a mini car
A good measure as mars bars are a basic commodity so you could measure the increase or decrease in costs
THEN they cut the size of mars bars

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Actual reality is people here putting their life savings into TL to have the high interest rates subsidise their living expenses and finding inflation biting into those savings. If they then decide to go back to the UK then the 6TL rate wipes out some more of their savings.
That’s real life

And if the £/tl was 4tl to the pound today their financial pain would be less and if it was 8TL to £ their financial pain would be more but none of that means "it would take over £22 to buy what £10 did in 2008 (in trnc)"

What is more the financial pain such people are suffering is less than that suffered by TC's who have spent their whole lives living and working and retiring in the TRNC.

Ok lets try another way.

Do you agree the following inflation figures;
2008 10.06
2009 6.53
2010 6.40
2011 10.45
2012 6.16
2013 7.40
2014 8.17
2015 8.81
2016 8.53
2017 11.92

If not produce some others, someone's happy hour bargain gleefully reported on tripadvisor doesn't count

First year what cost £10 at an inflation rate of £10.00 now costs £11.06.

Then;
£11.72
£12.47
£13.77
£14.62
£15.71
£16.99
£18.49
£20.06
£22.46

No one said TCs arent suffering more but what does that statement add to the debate?
I'll throw one in, Government workers in TRNC have had a better time of it than Ethiopian farmers.

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Mars bars
They used to be a good measure of inflation eg how many mars bars would it cost to buy a mini car
A good measure as mars bars are a basic commodity so you could measure the increase or decrease in costs
THEN they cut the size of mars bars

The classic example of that is the American dime bars. Obviously the title said it all but due to inflation and as they couldn't change the title the bars eventually because the size of a razor blade.
There is a flaw in your theory;
If you eat too many Mars bars you aint getting in a mini car

[wanderer]

The classic example of that is the American dime bars. Obviously the title said it all but due to inflation and as they couldn't change the title the bars eventually because the size of a razor blade.
There is a flaw in your theory;
If you eat too many Mars bars you aint getting in a mini car
Story of my life

[erol]

Over FIVE years.

I have not checked the figures but assuming yours and silerfox1's are correct, then yes over 5 years turning 100k sterling into TL and then back into sterling would leave you with less sterling than your started with £87k vs the £100k you started with. Over 10 years you would get back £100k

No one said TCs arent suffering more but what does that statement add to the debate?

To be honest I have never understood what the 'debate' was about in the first place. I only entered the thread and commented on the idea that £100k today would only buy you as much £40k bought you in 2008 because that seemed blatantly incorrect to me and still does. The whole idea that you can calculate how much 'buying power' one currency has lost over time based on the inflation rate of an entirely different currency to me is just a mistaken idea. It does not work that way.

As far as anyone putting a cash lump sum into the bank in any currency with the idea of living of the interest not realising or understanding that over time their income from such in real terms will decrease, well I do not have much sympathy for such people. Obviously that was going to happen it seems to me. Changing in into a different currency that would produce more income in interest also would obviously, to me, result in the degree to which that income decreases in real terms over time being greater. So like I say I am not really sure what the 'debate' is about at all.

I am about as sure as I can be sure that £100k today will buy you considerably more than £40k bought you in 2008 be it spent in the UK or TRNC. As I am sure that calculating how much value £100k has lost over lat ten years based on the inflation rate of the TL makes no sense and does not reflect any sort of reality.

[silverfox1]

[quote="wanderer"]Mars bars
They used to be a good measure of inflation eg how many mars bars would it cost to buy a mini car
A good measure as mars bars are a basic commodity so you could measure the increase or decrease in costs
THEN they cut the size of mars bars [/quot

Drop you are still right!!!!

But the latest news from the Turkish Central Bank is that, just like Mars Bars, they are going to reduce the size of their bank notes by 20%.
Is this inflation or deflation via the back door????

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Lire has hit lows today;
4.9902 against the dollar
6.5453 against the pound
5.8197 against the Euro

It will be interesting to see what happens when it hit 5 against the dollar

[Navek]

1 United States Dollar equals
5.06 Turkish lira
2 Aug, 11:14 AM UTC
http://www.google.co.uk/search?source=h ... Jd8_g-z93M

[tingtang]

It appears to me that it will get worse before it gets better, that's if it does get better whilst Erdogan is at the helm and, remember, he has recently granted himself a 12 year term.
He has shown that he wishes to meddle with the economy and it would be no surprise if he gets desperate that he will go back on his word not to nationalise the banks and what next? there is now the precedent of the South Cyprus gv't 'Haircut' given to their investors 4 years or so ago - who knows?

Someone on here mentioned several months ago that one of the banks was offering 12% to TL deposit account holders - we can wonder how that is sustainable, where will they get that money from? It reminds me of that old song 'The Emperors New Clothes' but also seems to me that as bankers in the money markets they know more than we do and must be desperate to obtain our hard currencies in exchange for their Lira,

I am no money expert so have avoided such tempting offers, my money remains in the UK transferring capital as and when it requires topping up and I take my chances on the exchange rate, I win some and lose some. It would be great to see the Lira stabilise, as it is now no-body wins but there are many losers.

tt.