Sterling.

[erol]

I don't think much of Corbyn but if he wins the next election with what will almost certainly be less than 50% of the population voting for him then the UK has to abide by what he wants to do until they vote him out.

Without bothering to check I would wager than no post war government has ever ruled with more than 50% of the population voting for them , or even 50% or more of those who were eligible to vote and actually did so. Sovereignty in the UK is NOT vested in the current government, or leader of the government and never has been. It is vested in Parliament which is different.

But I wouldn't neccessarily want to be governed by what the German president wants unless I can directly vote for her/him.

But if the UK does a trade deal with the US that requires us to accept chlorinated chickens, that we currently chose not to allow in the UK, because Trump thinks such is ok, you would be happy to be governed by what Trump wants in this regard even though you can not vote for him ?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Any deal between two sovereign nations or a sovereign nation and a union of such, that does not require either party to agree do something different on an ongoing basis, than they would do anyway in the absence of such an agreement, would not require an agreement at all. The only way to achieve absolute sovereignty is to isolate yourself from the rest of the world.

Total and utter piffle. As a sovereign nation the difference is we can choose to do the deal or not or continue to do the deal or not. It isn't dependant on whether some EU official decides on enforcing rules on us that we have to abide by or being outvoted even if it isn't in our interests.

The price of any trade able 'thing' in a free and liquid market is a function of its actual value today plus some element of speculation as to it's value in the future. So the value of the deutschmark, when such existed, was a reflection of the strength of the German economy at that point in time plus some speculative estimation as to how the strength was likely to change in the future.

But a trade imbalance of $3.3 trillion and climbing for the forseable future keeps the yuan very stable against the dollar?
Weird huh?

Yes I would agree pretty much and that again brings me back the the whole 'moving the goal posts' point. Your original assertion, as far as I understood it, was that currencies like sterling and the euro could be moved by significant amounts in a sustain way away from their value as based on the strength of the relative economies at that point in time plus an average market speculation as to their movement in the future, simply by anyone with 'loads of money'. My personal opinion when you first said that (if that is what you were saying) was that it was not true and remains so, even though we now seem to be talking about the Yuan and manipulation by Chinese government and not just someone with loads of money in relation to a currency that is free trade and convertible.

Pretty much?
Ok, what do you think would happen to the yuan if it floated?
So you don't believe that if tomorrow China didn't decide to throw all its money at sterling it's value wouldn't go up in value?

No. If it had stayed the same through that 10 year period then yes that would for me be indicative of 'price manipulations' but just that it is today at a level similar to 10 years ago no. 6 months ago is significantly different from 10 years ago. 2014 significantly different. To me it seems like you are using classic statistical 'trick' of taking exactly the points in time that show what you want to show and ignoring all other points


RIght now 1 USD equals 6.767 yuan. In April it was 6.2 In Feb 2014 6.0 and ten year ago 6.8. So which of these is the 'level level at which it finds its exports find a market in America' ? If the currency is so easily manipulated why was the yuan stronger than the 6.7 it is today for all of 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 ? Why has it not just been 6.8 all the time ?

Seriously?
I know if I tried to say we agree it's day you would say not in New Zealand but seriously.
I like to keep my pool full of water it doesn't mean that the amount of water in it doesn't vary at different points.

Over the last ten years the sterling to the dollar has a low of 1.20 and a high of 1.99
Over the last ten years the Euro to the Dollar has a low of 6.3 and a high of 9.6.
Euro to sterling low of 1.02 high of 1.44

In the same period the yuan and the dollar has a high and low of 6.95 and 6.04 a variance of 15% high point to low point.
Let's not quote our pet economists let's use common sense. You can honestly tell me that doesn't seem in the slightest bit strange to you?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Sovereignty in the UK is NOT vested in the current government, or leader of the government and never has been. It is vested in Parliament which is different.

Pepper and fly sh$t.

But if the UK does a trade deal with the US that requires us to accept chlorinated chickens, that we currently chose not to allow in the UK, because Trump thinks such is ok, you would be happy to be governed by what Trump wants in this regard even though you can not vote for him ?

No it would be our Government that made the decision to proceed with the deal on those terms or not.
Back to contracts again.
I give you my car, you give me money. You want to make another offer involving the 3 bald tyres on my car we discuss and proceed or don't proceed. Doing a trade deal has zero to do with losing any sovereignty.

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Btw the People’s Bank of China holds over $2 trillion in U.S. foreign reserves which kind of explains how they are doing it and if Trump gets too carried away and they decide to dump all their Treasury Bonds etc the US economy goes into meltdown.
Supply and demand

[erol]

Total and utter piffle. As a sovereign nation the difference is we can choose to do the deal or not or continue to do the deal or not. It isn't dependant on whether some EU official decides on enforcing rules on us that we have to abide by or being outvoted even if it isn't in our interests.

Well we will have to agree to differ here I guess. We chose to join the EU, to do the deal of joining. No one forced us. Even to day over large areas we have within the EU the right and ability to unilaterally veto decisions we do not agree with. At every point the EU moved from requiring unilateral agreement of all members individually to some form of 'majority' decision, such was done so as a result of individual agreement of all members. At each of these points we could have vetoed such changes but chose not to. Having chosen freely to allow some decisions to be made by majority voting of members (qualified majority voting) and having not used by choice our right to veto such changes, we still had and have the sovereign right to decide to leave the EU. For me there is clearly no difference in principal between choosing membership of the EU (or the customs union or free trade area) and choosing to commit to a trade deal with say the US. The difference is one of degree only and not of principal. And the degree is on both sides of the deal, in that the more we chose to limit our sovereignty whilst we remain party to the deal the more balancing benefits we hope to get in return. I am still of the view that the reality is any deal, agreement or treaty between the UK and some other party involves some degree of voluntarily choosing to limit absolute sovereignty of the UK in return for some other benefits in return. To me this is just an obvious reality.

No it would be our Government that made the decision to proceed with the deal on those terms or not.

As it was our government (parliament actually) that chose to do the 'deal' of joining the EEC, and our parliament that chose to agree to amending the rules that we signed up to then to ones that reduced our (and every other members) right to unilateral veto on some things in favour of qualified majority vote and just as it is our parliament that decided to trigger article 50 and signal out intention to leave the EU. As it will be our parliaments decision as to if we decided to allow chlorinated chicken from the US to be sold in the UK. Once we have decided that and for as along as we chose to stick to such agreements going forward we will have chosen to limit our sovereignty in regards to such decisions.

[erol]

Btw the People’s Bank of China holds over $2 trillion in U.S. foreign reserves which kind of explains how they are doing it and if Trump gets too carried away and they decide to dump all their Treasury Bonds etc the US economy goes into meltdown.
Supply and demand

Down from a high of over $ 4 trillion. If the objective was to decrease the value of the Yuan , then you would use Yuan to buy dollars, leading to your store of dollars increasing. If the objective is to increase the value of Yuan then you would use the dollars you have , as a result of selling more to america than they sell to you, to buy Yuan, leading to the store of dollars decreasing.

To my mind the US has a major advantage over all other countries because of the status of the dollar as the worlds foremost reserve currency. As I understand it , which may well be wrong, this means in simple terms that the US can and does print dollars whilst essentially exporting or 'spreqading' if you prefer the inflation that such causes to the rest of the world. For a currency that does not have such a status as a global reserve currency. like say the TL, printing more TL just leads to internal inflation in Turkey. The us prints more dollars and it leads to global inflation. If I were China my long term objective would be to try and decease the degree to which the dollar is the foremost global reserve currency and seek to replace it as much as possible with the Yuan.

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Erol,

You seem to have more faith in the ongoing powers of vetos than I do.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.inde ... html%3famp
That’s 20 years ago, the longer you stay in it the less things you can veto as a rule you’ll find.
You can have any colour Model T you like as long as it’s black.

As for Parliament agreeing to whatever the EU put in front of us and so the British people have thus agreed generally as far as the EU was concerned come election time both parties didn’t give the electorate many options re the EU.
Then magically Cameron offered a referendum, that was popular so he got voted in with a majority. Then we had the referendum and over half those who voted wanted to leave.
The people have spoken

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Down from a high of over $ 4 trillion. If the objective was to decrease the value of the Yuan , then you would use Yuan to buy dollars, leading to your store of dollars increasing. If the objective is to increase the value of Yuan then you would use the dollars you have , as a result of selling more to america than they sell to you, to buy Yuan, leading to the store of dollars decreasing.

No the objective is to keep the yuan artificially low at a level they want. Too low and they dont maximise profits too high and they don’t sell as much. Compared with Euro to dollar Euro to sterling and sterling to dollar over the last ten years wouldn’t you admit that the yuan to the dollar has been strangly consistent considering the trade gap?
It is not in China’s interests for the US economy to go into recession which is why they have pumped in a lot of money into it in times of difficulty. America is the worlds biggest customer after all.
Long term I assume the Chinese will want to supercede the dollar but slowly slowly catchee monkey

[erol]

As for Parliament agreeing to whatever the EU put in front of us and so the British people have thus agreed generally as far as the EU was concerned come election time both parties didn’t give the electorate many options re the EU.

You think the 'people' will have many options or much effective say as if we do or do not accept the chlorinated chickens Trump will put in front of us, or the reducing of restrictions on Indian nationals ability to study or work in the UK that Indian president Ram Nath Kovind will put in front of us as the price for securing trade deals with them ? Or any of the compromises to sovereignty than all such deals with any countries or blocks of countries (including the EU) will require ?

The people have spoken

Indeed they have.

[erol]

Compared with Euro to dollar Euro to sterling and sterling to dollar over the last ten years wouldn’t you admit that the yuan to the dollar has been strangly consistent considering the trade gap?

Certainly with a more centrally managed economy and only a semi free floating currency they have indeed been able to manage their currency much better than ECB or BoE has been able to mange theirs. What any of this has to do with the original goalposts of all anyone needs to control any currencies price is a lot of money, I do not know ?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Compared with Euro to dollar Euro to sterling and sterling to dollar over the last ten years wouldn’t you admit that the yuan to the dollar has been strangly consistent considering the trade gap?

Certainly with a more centrally managed economy and only a semi free floating currency they have indeed been able to manage their currency much better than ECB or BoE has been able to mange theirs. What any of this has to do with the original goalposts of all anyone needs to control any currencies price is a lot of money, I do not know ?

So we’ll call it managing their currency rather than manipulating it?
I think $3 trillion is a fair bit of pocket change.
My point was that a country’s currency value isn’t always based on its economic performance or even thoughts on its future economic performance and can be manipulated with the movement of money. China and America’s relative currency values today prove that.
Again if China decided to pour a couple of trillion into UK government bonds for fun what do you think would happen to the £ rate?
Would that prove Theresa May has turned us into an economic powerhouse?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

You think the 'people' will have many options or much effective say as if we do or do not accept the chlorinated chickens Trump will put in front of us, or the reducing of restrictions on Indian nationals ability to study or work in the UK that Indian president Ram Nath Kovind will put in front of us as the price for securing trade deals with them ? Or any of the compromises to sovereignty than all such deals with any countries or blocks of countries (including the EU) will require ?

The deals do not compromise sovereignty imo.

The people will be able to vote a lot more effectively if trade deals, laws, what you can or can’t veto is more transparent which even its biggest supporter couldn’t call the EU.

[waz-24-7]

The position of tl against £ is simply due to the weakness of the Turkish economy, its banks and the dictatorial stance of its administration.
£ Sterling remain weak against the currencies of importance USA $ and the EURO.
This is mostly due to the uncertainty that the BREXIT referendum has instilled within markets.
In addition.
Those people that think the UK can simply replace EU trade with World trade are frankly plain stupid.
Customers need to be searched out and other world suppliers must be ousted to be replaced by UK suppliers of goods and services.
This does not happen overnight. Lost EU custom will sink many UK businesses as they simply do not have the resource to go worldwide. Nor do they have the expertise or knowledge upon cross border, continental and world business protocol.

I fear the total disarray over BREXIT now is leaving the UK on the brink of political meltdown. A position that the EU and indeed the rest of the World will cease and capitalize on to strengthen their own position.

With the possibility of a "no deal "plus a very possible lack of leadership the UK is weaker now than it has been since the last European war.

[Groucho]

Erol "We chose to join the EU, to do the deal of joining. No one forced us." Do you think that when we went into the EEC it was with a view to it changing beyond all recognition into the federal monster it's turned out to be?

[waddo]

You think the 'people' will have many options or much effective say as if we do or do not accept the chlorinated chickens Trump will put in front of us, or the reducing of restrictions on Indian nationals ability to study or work in the UK that Indian president Ram Nath Kovind will put in front of us as the price for securing trade deals with them ? Or any of the compromises to sovereignty than all such deals with any countries or blocks of countries (including the EU) will require ?

The deals do not compromise sovereignty imo.

The people will be able to vote a lot more effectively if trade deals, laws, what you can or can’t veto is more transparent which even its biggest supporter couldn’t call the EU.

And you think that "The People" will actually understand what it is they will be voting for when this happens? "The People" or can I say "The Masses" by and large don't know nor care so long as they have money in their pockets and life is a little easier than yesterday! That is what the masses vote for! I would suggest that the masses knew more about the World Cup scores/players/match times and venues than they ever did about what would or would not happen if they voted for or against Brexit!

[EnjoyingTheSun]

This does not happen overnight. Lost EU custom will sink many UK businesses as they simply do not have the resource to go worldwide. Nor do they have the expertise or knowledge upon cross border, continental and world business protocol.

I fear the total disarray over BREXIT now is leaving the UK on the brink of political meltdown. A position that the EU and indeed the rest of the World will cease and capitalize on to strengthen their own position.

With the possibility of a "no deal "plus a very possible lack of leadership the UK is weaker now than it has been since the last European war.

Yes UK businesses don't have a clue, they like most entrepreneurs need endless bureaucrats, civil servants and failed politicians to help them earn a living.

But anyhow keep your fingers crossed for the UK meltdown.

[waz-24-7]

This does not happen overnight. Lost EU custom will sink many UK businesses as they simply do not have the resource to go worldwide. Nor do they have the expertise or knowledge upon cross border, continental and world business protocol.

I fear the total disarray over BREXIT now is leaving the UK on the brink of political meltdown. A position that the EU and indeed the rest of the World will cease and capitalize on to strengthen their own position.

With the possibility of a "no deal "plus a very possible lack of leadership the UK is weaker now than it has been since the last European war.

Yes UK businesses don't have a clue, they like most entrepreneurs need endless bureaucrats, civil servants and failed politicians to help them earn a living.

But anyhow keep your fingers crossed for the UK meltdown.

There are tens of thousands of UK businesses and entrepreneurs. For sure the vast majority would love to maintain their trading status with the EU.
The clear fear and nervousness over a no deal scenario has already slowed business investment significantly in past months. Many larger operations have indicated this in past weeks.

The UK government has clearly lost its way in delivering BREXIT based on current proposal it is a joke. The UK is essentially abiding by EU rules, laws and all that most wanted to escape from in return for......well nothing except the UK are no longer at the decision making table and will be forced to tow the line.
No thanks. Get real and let the people decide upon the deal. GOOD deal or BAD deal?