Three month cyprus talks

[Reyntj]

https://www.lgcnews.com/three-month-tim ... alks-nami/

This is sensible . Three months talks then a referendum then if a negative result a new course of action . Whilst i believe there are many who are happy with the staus quo we really need direct flights etc to fully prosper as a tourist destination. Id prefer to be in the euro but thats just a gut feeling i dont reallyy have a clue .

Many people have given up on the talks etc are fed up reading about it or simply dont care . They really need a proper ultimatum like suggstec in the article or whats the point .

[Groucho]

https://www.lgcnews.com/three-month-tim ... alks-nami/

. Id prefer to be in the euro but thats just a gut feeling i dontvreally have a clue .
.

Tim, attempting win a race on a horse in a tent with a broken leg at Aintree would be a rosier outlook...

[Deniz1]

[Reyntj]

Are the odds that good . Im going each way!

[jackvern]

Totally agree. Enough to of the bullshit. Head to head and then a referendum in both parts.
44 years of endless talks and nothing. UN have come to the same comclusion. Special advisor has visited both heads of states and will now meet guarantor powers. USA want a solution or withdraw UN. Things are coming to a boil and out of the hands of two inexperienced politicians. Last chance saloon. Sort out the differences or two independent states,at peace but recognised by the rest Of the world. Whilst I hate the Euro it will,at least give stability. How can folks live paying sterling for rentals and yet be paid in Turkish lira . Needs to be sorted ASAP

[waddo]

Grouch, this is about Cyprus not Brexit - lol.

[Hedge-fund]

Ozil Nami is a respected voice in the talks arena. I met him briefly along with Espen Barth Eide (social setting - not business!) and I think he'll be president one day soon.

My view is that a settlement will be achieved between the two leaders.

The united island can then reap the benefits of the energy resources and the north will be free from creeping islamification.

[jofra]

Totally agree. Enough to of the bullshit. Head to head and then a referendum in both parts.
44 years of endless talks and nothing. UN have come to the same conclusion. Special advisor has visited both heads of states and will now meet guarantor powers. USA want a solution or withdraw UN

Apparently the GC side are opposed to withdrawal of UNFICYP; perhaps they are only too aware that they have so many hotheads who may immediately start a war against the TCs and the "Turkish invaders" (whether any agreement is reached or not) - and no doubt there would be a response from Turkey and some TCs...

.....Sort out the differences or two independent states,at peace but recognised by the rest Of the world. Whilst I hate the Euro it will,at least give stability....

IF two states, would Turkey allow a "foreign" currency to take over? Would it be to their benefit or directly opposite?

[Groucho]

Grouch, this is about Cyprus not Brexit - lol.

Wad, I was remarking on Tim's preference for being in the Euro... nothing to do with Brexit, you brought that up not me!

lol indeed.

[waddo]

It is interesting to note that the UN has been signed off again for another six months but that this is the last time!!! So what now? The three guarantor powers are talking about the whole thing along with the UN almost ready to pull the plug on the UN in Cyprus - no more UN jobs in the South and a huge loss of revenue from the UN as well will not go down well with them. Is it now the time that the whole world has had enough of the squabble on this Island that was ultimately settled in 1974 anyway? The UK would like nothing better than to withdraw from being a guarantor power as it is facing Brexit upheaval and needs to concentrate on that. Turkey would be more than happy to remain a power but would like to see the TRNC as a Nation recognised by the world on it's own and Greece, having had their lifesaving deal with the Russians blown out of the water are now not really interested in Cyprus and just want to get their own act back together. Even the USA did not want the UN to renew their biannual extensions this time but agreed to it as there was an end in sight.

So my bet is that whilst the South scurries around trying to get other countries to do their fighting and stealing of natural resource for them, the three powers will agree to recognise the TRNC at the end of the UN mandate! Simple end to the problem as then the mandate regarding the North's position in the EU will be withdrawn and both Nations on the Island will be in the EU. There may be a transition period whilst the North changes to the Euro as it's currency by as the TL continues to dive I think that period would be short indeed.

Whatever happens it is going to be a very interesting six months and the Cyprob needs careful watching - particularly if you wish to remain an EU citizen.

[PapaBravo]

My view is that a settlement will be achieved between the two leaders.

This may well be true, but I do not think Turkey will permit the TRNC to join the EU and use a different currency to the TL - just my opinion.

[waddo]

PB - TRNC is already in the EU, once the country is recognised by the UN (and a few other World Nations) I just wonder if they would then have to go through the same procedure that the UK is doing under Brexit to get out of the EU. Admittedly TRNC is only in the EU because the whole Island is in the EU and I feel that the EU would not want the TRNC to leave because then it would be the same situation as Ireland - but at least there are already hard borders in place if they don't want to stay. Whatever happens I think the next six months are going to be "Interesting"!

[Reyntj]

I agree that erdogan wont want this and will want some sort of major concession despite turkey being the invaders.

Perhaps it might be a condition of the imf loan turkey are going to need ....after they realise that with 5tl plus to the usd that many turkish business are now broke ....the economy is collapsing right.before us . Turkstat have manipulated the gdp figures by rebasing them and there was a raft of short term measure before the election to garner support to get the vote overthe line . In my opinion moving forwad erdogans hands may be tied as the econmy tanks they will go cap n hand to the imf

[waddo]

Although I agree that Erdogan won't want this to happen can he miss the chance of being able to give up the funding of the North and instead use the money he ploughs into the Island to help Turkey? Turkey must be paying millions of Lira into the TRNC to keep it afloat every year! Turkey has 6 cities with more than a million people, 74 cities with between 100,000 and 1 million people, and 424 cities with between 10,000 and 100,000 people, yet it must be paying far more to keep TRNC afloat than the majority of it's cities! Would it not be better for Erdogan to call it a day and let the TRNC rule itself - in his eyes at least. Not talking about withdrawal of the Turkish Army from the TRNC here, that is another subject.

[Hector]

1. Nowhere have I read that either side will be compelled by the UN to enter into an agreement to resolve the Cyprob at the end of 3 months.
2. I have not seen anything to suggest that the UN will pull out and thus put any political pressure on either side.
3. What is the financial incentive for the EU to take over keeping the very expensive TRNC afloat?
4. What is the incentive for the politicians, civil servants etc. of either side to give up the Cyprob negotiation gravy train?

Just my thoughts. I hope I'm wrong.

[waddo]

1. Neither have I?
2. Look at the UN mandate for Cyprus!
3. Since when did the EU ever bother about having a financial incentive - if it did then how did the financial problems in Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy happen?
4. None at all and in particular none in the RoC.

5. Exactly what single thing is stopping the TRNC being recognised by the other countries in the World?

Interesting that: Northern Cyprus is legally part of the EU, but law is suspended due to north being under the control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which the EU does not recognise. The North uses the Turkish lira instead of the euro, although the euro circulates alongside the lira and other currencies. On the resolution of the Cyprus dispute and the reunification of the island, the euro would become the official currency of the north also. Adoption by the North would be the first time the euro has replaced use of another currency that hasn't ceased to exist after euro adoption. Euro adoption would help to address inflation in the North by bringing in price stability. Cypriot euro coins already bear the name of Cyprus in both Greek and Turkish, displaying representations of natural and ancient Cypriot history.

But confusing that: Northern Cyprus is de jure part of the EU by virtue of de jure being part of the Republic of Cyprus. ?????

On one hand if TRNC becomes recognised then the Euro would become it's legal currency but on the other hand if TRNC becomes recognised on it's own then it would no longer be a part of the RoC so would it still be in the EU????

[Art]

Is there written evidence that the UN are pulling out at the end of their 6 month term?

I have read the transcript from the UN meeting -no mention of a withdrawal.

https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13434.doc.htm

[waddo]

The meeting began at 10:08 a.m. and ended at 10:11 a.m. A total of 3 minutes - how long did it take you to read the transcript from the UN meeting? This is simply the standard biannual rubber stamp meeting and nothing more or less than that. However, read this extract from the Cyprus Mail and wonder yourself what is happening:

"The Greek Cypriot negotiator, Andreas Mavroyiannis, who sat in on President Anastasiades’ meeting with Lute, did not mince his words speaking on Super Sport FM, on Thursday morning. “This period signals, possibly, the end of an era,” explaining that he meant the “approach adopted after the invasion.” After the failure to reach an agreement last year, there were questions whether “there is anything else left to do,” Mavroyiannis said, suggesting that the UN would abandon efforts aimed at achieving a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation.

“We must all realise how serious things are,” he warned explaining that if there was an extended deadlock or the UN called it a day, “it will be the first time since 1974 that we will be faced with what to do next,” Mavroyiannis said. Although he did not spell it out, the “end of an era” also referred to end of the Unficyp’s presence. On Friday, Alithia carried a front page report saying that the UN Security Council had renewed Unficyp’s six-month mandate for the last time on Thursday. There had been US objections to this renewal, but in the end it was agreed to maintain Unficyp’s status for another six months to give the UN Secretary-General time for an attempt at another initiative."

It seems - to me - that the USA has had enough and that also the Secretary-General is of the same frame of mind - we shall see but I will watch the news from both sides with a lot more interest over the next 5 months for sure!

[Art]

At the moment it would appear to be paper talk without any official statement from the UN.

[waddo]

Quite so, now we wait to see what Jane Holl Lute reports back to Sec Gen. She did not come here to discuss anything, she came here to ask questions and was not put off by either President when they tried to bang their respective drums. Her report will not be submitted until September and that is after she has spoken with the three guarantor powers. Maybe we will here more once the Sec Gen has his hands on the report - we wait and see.

I think this probably sums it up better than anything at this time: https://cyprus-mail.com/2018/07/26/unfi ... st-chance/

[zcacmxi]

So, for 40+ years since 1974 the UN, US, UK, EU and entire international community have sided with the Greek Cypriots / ROC throughout that period, even ignoring how the situation started in 60s and re-writing history to start with an "occupation in 1974", totally unprovoked of course if you are to believe them..

Then, even in the most recent referendum where TRNC side voted PRO settlement and ROC side voted 75% against, still ROC was rewarded with EU membership, and TRNC side ignored and all embargos continued with no changes.

Now, do you honestly want me or any other sane adult to believe that "this is one last chance", and in 3 months time the UN/EU/UK etc will accept there will be no solution and they will recognise the TRNC? This from organisations that have not even eased embargo on TRNC or allowed direct flights and still to this day continue to take ROC side, at best ignoring existence of Turkish Cypriots, and at worst punishing them?

As much as I would like to believe it, I can not see it. ROC / GC's are too short sighted / stubborn to recognise / assist Turkish Cypriot existence and would rather TRNC becomes Turkey / Turkish.

[waddo]

zcacmxi, No! But then, quite recently, based entirely on the promises, lies, half truths and words of people in all walks of life, along with the wish's of the general public - a great number of people voted to either leave or remain in the EU. You can never tell what is going to happen in the World but if people keep pushing and pushing for what they want instead of what their politicians want then things can change and can change very quickly. Remember the Berlin wall??? I am not a Cypriot but personally I do not think that Cyprus will ever be a united Island, I also do not think that the US/UN/TR/GR nor even the UK think so either. With the worlds requirements for oil and gas expanding everyday, there will come a time when the current situation in Cyprus will be resolved by those powers outside of Cyprus as it has already been proven many times that Cyprus is unable or unwilling to resolve the problem itself. So I ask you, what would be the easy way out of the problem for the US/UN/TR/GR and UK if not to simply recognise that the TRNC has existed against all comers for over 40 years already and to therefore recognise that it does exist and always will? For sure it would solve the UN's problem and put a smile on the face of the US!

[zcacmxi]

.... things can change and can change very quickly ...

1974 - 2004 - 30 year period up to Annan, things did not change quickly at all and the North was left more or less "frozen" awaiting a federal solution based on UN agreements... Turkish Cypriots and some 10,000 UK expats waited...

2004 to today... Things have changed very quickly. UN/UK/EU/West have ignored the Turkish Cypriots, TRNC, etc and not come true on any pledges of recognition, easement of embargoes, etc. Turkish Cypriot businesses, hotels, airlines catering more for EU/UK markets have folded or contracted (remember CTA).. Together with the change in politics in Turkey, the North of Cyprus is now treated more as a part of Turkey with large Turkish corporate investment. Large hotels catering for Turkish Casino tourism (Kaya, Limak, Merit groups), Turkish high street stores opening branches (Mavi, DeFacto, Flo, etc, etc), and Ercan now another Turkish "internal" airport with flights from Turkish, Pegasus, Atlas only...

Current policy has taken UK/EU out of north. The North is now the playground for the Turkish businessmen... Their hotels, shops, banks, airlines, property companies, etc..

EU/UK don't want to recognise, fly or invest here and have taken the side of the Greek Cypriots for the past 50 years. I can feel people have a life to lead here, and have already moved on. Hence why even the Turkish politicians saying, "time is of the essence"..

[EnjoyingTheSun]

The oil and gas will probably end up being the key. Nothing brings people around a table like money.
Think of The Troubles, how many people were killed in twenty odd years? Not just ordinary people but Mountbatten and politicians but still the situation just carried on.

Then the IRA bombed the Baltic Exchange in London and let the foreign businesses know they would be targeting the financial heart of London and within 18 months the British Government bent over backwards to broker a solution.

[waddo]

Whilst I know that this particular post is "Off Topic", I often still think of The Troubles as you call it, Operation Banner as it was known and you are right, it came to a very fast end once the financial heart of London was threatened! Of course it could be that the MoD did not need a "doorstep" training ground any longer either and Defence cuts were taking a toll on the number of personal available. However, not with malice mind you, I take a little affront at the term "Not just ordinary people" when - According to the Ministry of Defence, 1,441 serving British military personnel died in Operation Banner; 722 of whom were killed in paramilitary attacks, and 719 of whom died as a result of other causes. The British military killed 306 people during the operation, about 51% of whom were civilians and 41% of whom were members of republican paramilitaries. I would suggest that there is nothing "ordinary" about any of the fatalities in Northern Ireland!

[EnjoyingTheSun]

I take a little affront at the term "Not just ordinary people"

Not my thoughts I assure you, Mountbatten in particular was a despicable man. But a lot of people died very little done to end the situation but once it looked like some foreign banks might up sticks nothing seemed un-negotiable.
The situation out here has parallels with Ireland imo, people talking about things that happened long in the past without looking to the future.

[waddo]

Two years ago a Cypriot told me that the Americans had a phrase that directly applied to Cypriots of both sides of the border - he did say it was a phrase they used for their own people but that it fit the bill in Cyprus to a tee: SLITS! (Still living in the 60's) He said exactly the same thing as you have and said the only solution is to wait till all those with one foot in the past have both feet in the soil, then the next generation will move forward again. He was a Greek Cypriot of 86 years of age, sadly passed away in May of this year - I had known him since 1965 when I first came to Cyprus.

[EnjoyingTheSun]

the only solution is to wait till all those with one foot in the past have both feet in the soil, then the next generation will move forward again.

It will help but the problem is they are still teaching it in schools in the South I understand, so it will live on.
If you think of Ireland, they would talk about something that happened in the 1600s like it happened last weekend.

[waddo]

Ha! To be sure! Probably why Constantinople is still the name of a stolen city and not Istanbul!!