Article 50, Brexit

[waz-24-7]

Waz, as I said before it they secure the deal of the century you wouldn't be happy ?

The deal of the Century would be wonderful. The chances that it will suit everyone is NIL.

I an sure my deal would be rather different to yours for example.

[kibsolar1999]

Meanwhile, the EU parliament, which is still a parliament which has „something to say“,
(not like in the UK, where it is now sufficient to know the (private) telephone number of someone in the administration to change thousands of laws , see (great) repeat bill), and where the gov reg brexit has all rights to sign whatever they want)
dicided , with the argumentation that “a country outside of the EU can not have it same or better as a country inside of the EU”, that they want, for the people of Europe,
- somewhat 60 billion from the UK (incl Nigel Farages pension)
- that there will be no access for the UK to the common market as long the UK does not accept freedom of movement and the European courts of justice.
and, that there will be no “parallel” negotiations. One after the other.
Votes: 516 YES, 133 NO (Nigel Farage and Co), 50 abstention.
What is going on in the UK? Has someone the slightest clue?
İt seems, the UK elite took (completely) over (thanks David, thanks Boris.. and this May-girl.. simply fabulous... ).
Or, in other words: brexit opened the wound... but for sewing up it will need big needles.

[kibsolar1999]

Postby erol » Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:37 pm

thats correct.
as the UK applied to the EU to leave the EU, the EU parliament will, as long there is a deal achieved, vote you out.
if no deal can be achieved, the UK automatically will leave the EU in march 2019, on WTO terms.
the so called "Botswana solution".

[turtle]

So lets look at another scenario .... Lets imagine there in no real deal and we both part company yes this will have an effect of the UK and we chose this root so really that is down to us but how will this have an impact on EU imports to the UK. ?

A lot has been said about how it will damage the UK but what damage will it do to the EU.... can they afford to risk this ? the EU finances are not in good shape and the Euro is failing.

So really my question is can the EU cut the UK adrift ?

[waz-24-7]

So lets look at another scenario .... Lets imagine there in no real deal and we both part company yes this will have an effect of the UK and we chose this root so really that is down to us but how will this have an impact on EU imports to the UK. ?

A lot has been said about how it will damage the UK but what damage will it do to the EU.... can they afford to risk this ? the EU finances are not in good shape and the Euro is failing.

So really my question is can the EU cut the UK adrift ?

Valid point Turtle.
The Euro is not failing in real terms. There has certainly been a period of uneasiness but I think the currency has recovered somewhat and I believe the Union is being revitalised by BREXIT.
Regarding cutting the UK adrift. Yes, Behind closed doors I believe they will. I imagine a vigorous marketing plan to attract businesses from UK shores and back into the trading Union across the water. I cannot see how the UK can combat such an attack and the result could be devastating to our economy.
The EU, just like the UK will be actively seeking the best deal. Given the EU is much larger and is a real trading partner target for the rest of the World. I think they have the upper hand.

[kibsolar1999]

turtle wrote:
So lets look at another scenario .... Lets imagine there in no real deal and we both part company yes this will have an effect of the UK and we chose this root so really that is down to us but how will this have an impact on EU imports to the UK. ?
A lot has been said about how it will damage the UK but what damage will it do to the EU.... can they afford to risk this ? the EU finances are not in good shape and the Euro is failing.

ok, a result would be: prices will go up.

instead from UK, EU businesses will buy in other EU countries and UK still has to buy somewhere in EU. maybe not german stuff, but then it will be italian.
maybe a GBP close to 1:1 to the euro can ease this.. but then polnish nurses will not come to your country any more and you have to make your blood transfer yourself.

[turtle]

So no damage to the EU then.....hmmm why am I not surprised ?

[erol]

So lets look at another scenario .... Lets imagine there in no real deal and we both part company yes this will have an effect of the UK and we chose this root so really that is down to us but how will this have an impact on EU imports to the UK. ?

A lot has been said about how it will damage the UK but what damage will it do to the EU.... can they afford to risk this ? the EU finances are not in good shape and the Euro is failing.

So really my question is can the EU cut the UK adrift ?

Firstly I think the idea that it is solely down to us (the UK) as to if we accept a deal or choose the 'no deal' route is misguided. A deal requires both parties to agree. A no deal requires only one party to not agree. That could be the UK choosing the 'no deal' option but I see no reason why it could only be the UK that chooses such ?

As to who can most 'afford' a 'no deal' result well that has already been discussed here

The reality is, at least EU wide, that UK exports to the EU represent in the region of 44% of total UK exports worldwide and EU exports to the UK represent around 14% of EU worldwide exports. Now it is true as as Groucho pointed out in the previous discussion of this, that if you compare the UK not to the EU as a whole, but to individual EU members alone, like say Germany then the numbers are very different and that may indeed have some impact but over all currently the UK's exports to the EU are a much larger proportion of all it's exports than the EU's exports to the UK are of theirs.

Even when considering the UK with say Germany alone, there is the very real difference between 'goods' exports that have WTO rules that would come into force in the absence of any other deal agreed between EU and UK and 'services' exports that would not. If you really want to try and gauge what the effects of both UK and Germany alone would be in a hypothetical scenario where 'no deal' happens, then you need, I think, to consider not just the total value of exports from each country to the other as a proportion of all exports from each country but also how much of that export amount is 'goods' and how much is 'services'.

For me as a 'negotiating strategy' to even be talking publicly (our representatives I mean, not us) at this stage about who would loose more in a 'loose - loose' scenario is misguided and seems more aimed at 'domestic' consumption than it is at securing the best possible deal in the actual negotiations. Publicly they should in my view be talking only about the desire of securing the best 'win - win' scenario possible.

[jofra]

As we gradually drift further into fantasy la-la land, discussing.....
I'm sorry, this article 50 stuff/Britain leaving the EU/etc - who is cutting who adrift? And whether we wanted to leave or wanted to remain, are we/is there any point in wondering what will happen to the EU -
Or are we all just trying to score points i.e I'm right, you're wrong, I told you so, na na-na na.....There's a song that most probably haven't heard of - entitled "Get over it".....
I think I'm adult enough to accept that it's happening, I can't do anything about it, and and (childishly) attempting to say who's right or wrong is pointless - we will never know!

[niceone]

que sera sera

[jasm83]

OK
Into the unknown. New frontiers new issues and new problems. New opportunities.

The next 2 years are the first critical of many. How good will the UK negotiators be? My view is we are on the back foot for some time. The EU is much larger an economy and has all the trade deals already in place. The EU is now a competitor competing for work and business .
I do not think UK business is at all ready. Most are simply not familiar enough with world wide trade, tariff controls and even how to export across borders. Of course the demise of much employment law will assist UK businesses and perhaps many UK skilled workers from overseas will return to the motherland. Immigration policy must be published very quickly. The need for immigrant workers has been made abundantly clear yet te government will not lay out a policy.
That's the economy.
The future of the EU moving forward remains very important. Peace in Europe must be maintained and any further division will most certainly threaten the current peaceful position.

the only sure way to advance workers’ rights is to elect a government pledged to full employment and collective bargaining. The notion that only Brussels stands in the way of a barrage of deregulation betrays not just a misunderstanding of the way the EU operates but also a deep and irrational pessimism on the left, a belief that the Conservatives will be in power forever no matter what they do. The left doesn’t need the EU to fight its battles. What it needs is to make the case for better working conditions and win over the public sick of a labor market loaded in favor of employers. With a bit of self-confidence, it shouldn’t be that difficult.

[waz-24-7]

Workers rights.
Does not any able bodied person deserve the right to work, provide, improve and succeed regardless of colour creed or nationality. The labour shortages in the UK could certainly be improved if immigration was less of a phobia. It is increasingly clear that loses as a result of Brexit are costing us dear. Many promises to fishermen, farmers the NHS are just dust in the wind. The absolute mess on the Irish protocols promises further strife and loss.
The UK labour government appear to be taking the line of a re entry to the single market but at what additional cost? A political ploy to win votes or a real policy that could deliver a return to advantage and European equality.
I think UK politics is becoming rather more divergent and this is also seen within the country's social make up as the very wealthy continue to increase net worth whilst the remaining 98% struggle increasingly. to varying degrees. This indeed is supported by a right wing , old colonial, Britain for the British mentality sold to the masses under the flag of "take back control".

[jofra]

.... and FIVE years on.....
......R.I.P...... please!!

[EnjoyingTheSun]

Workers rights.
Does not any able bodied person deserve the right to work, provide, improve and succeed regardless of colour creed or nationality. The labour shortages in the UK could certainly be improved if immigration was less of a phobia. It is increasingly clear that loses as a result of Brexit are costing us dear. Many promises to fishermen, farmers the NHS are just dust in the wind. The absolute mess on the Irish protocols promises further strife and loss.
The UK labour government appear to be taking the line of a re entry to the single market but at what additional cost? A political ploy to win votes or a real policy that could deliver a return to advantage and European equality.
I think UK politics is becoming rather more divergent and this is also seen within the country's social make up as the very wealthy continue to increase net worth whilst the remaining 98% struggle increasingly. to varying degrees. This indeed is supported by a right wing , old colonial, Britain for the British mentality sold to the masses under the flag of "take back control".

93344984-B28C-479B-A6C3-5F7C9B5EE0F9.gif (9.59 KiB) Viewed 650 times

[benjaminbutton]

I understand the Gif, and please delete it.

[EnjoyingTheSun]

I understand the Gif, and please delete it.

Glad you understand it.
I’m fascinated to know why I should delete it?